上海论坛十周年宣传册.pdf

谨以此献给复旦大学 110 周年校庆 TO THE 110th ANNIVERSARY OF FUDAN UNIVERSITY 2005 年，上海论坛在梦想与激情中诞生。 十年间，来自全球 40 余个国家和地区，共计 10000 多位各界知名人士在这里争鸣交流， 30 多个国际合作机构与合作媒体在这里同心协作。 十年间，我们始终致力于推进交流与合作，在大变革时代中寻求共识，助力亚洲经济 社会整体发展。 十年间，在历年来论坛的组织者、参与者、支持者和志愿者的倾情付出下，上海论坛已 成长为智慧交流碰撞的年度盛宴，承担起为亚洲发展和世界进步建言献策的重大责任。 从 2005 到 2015，我们弄潮十年；从 2015 到更多的十年，我们逐梦而行。用智慧引领发展， 用创新开拓未来！我们将秉持前一个十年的信念与责任，与您携手，共创更加美好的时代！ Launched in 2005, Shanghai Forum emerged from a vivid dream and a passion. Throughout the past decade, over 10000 guests in various fields from more than 40 countries and regions have come together at our platform to discuss, exchange, and share their knowledge and ideas. Throughout the past decade, we have committed ourselves to optimizing international communication and enhancing new cooperation. Along the way, we’ve engaged in more than 30 international partnerships. Throughout the past decade, with the relentless support from organizers, participants, supporters, and volunteers, we have evolved into a platform for exchanging and sharing knowledge, shouldering the vital responsibility of enhancing Asian development and improving the world’s economic progress. Throughout the past decade, we have successfully proven ourselves as social, economic, and academic pioneers. We shall continue to pursue our dreams with a clearer vision, leading development with wisdom while opening up the future with new innovations. We will stick to our unwavering beliefs and responsibilities, and look forward to creating a brighter future together with YOU! 目 录 ｜ CONTENTS 机构介绍 上海论坛 2005-2015 Introduction Shanghai Forum 2005-2015 002 复旦大学 003 韩国高等教育财团 004 复旦发展研究院 005 上海论坛 Fudan University Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies Fudan Development Institute Shanghai Forum 009 上海论坛 2015 主题与议题 01 1 上海论坛 2005-2014 主题与议题 021 上海论坛 2015 组织委员会 022 上海论坛组织委员会历任领导 Shanghai Forum 2015 Theme and Topics Shanghai Forum 2005-2014 Themes and Sub-forums Shanghai Forum 2015 Organizing Committee Former Leadership of Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee 024 拾年寄语 036 上海论坛之声 Congratulatory Letters and Remarks Voice of Shanghai Forum 074 上海论坛共识 119 成果与影响 Shanghai Forum Consensus Achievements And Influence 主办 Host 复旦大学 Fudan University 韩国高等教育财团 Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies 承办 Organizer 复旦发展研究院 Fudan Development Institute 国际合作伙伴 International Cooperation Partners 美国耶鲁大学 Yale University, U.S.A. 美国芝加哥大学 University of Chicago, U.S.A. 美国圣路易斯华盛顿大学 Washington University in St. Louis, U.S.A. 美国乔治敦大学 Georgetown University, U.S.A. 中国香港中文大学 The Chinese University of Hong Kong, China 日本早稻田大学 Waseda University, Japan 新加坡国立大学 National University of Singapore, Singapore 英国伦敦政治经济学院 London School of Economics and Political Science, U.K. 英国杜伦大学 Durham University, U.K. 美国亚洲协会 Asia Society, U.S.A. 德国弗里德里希 • 艾伯特基金会 Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Germany 英国丁铎尔气候变化研究中心 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, U.K. 美国彼得森国际经济研究所 Peterson Institute for International Economics, U.S.A. 媒体战略合作伙伴 Media Cooperation Partner 人民日报社 People's Daily 中国日报 China Daily 新浪财经 finance.sina.com.cn 21 世纪经济报道 21st Century Business Herald 第一财经电视 China Business Network 解放日报 Jiefang Daily 文汇报 Wen Hui Bao 东方早报 Oriental Morning Post WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 机构介绍 INTRODUCTION 复旦大学 Fudan University 韩国高等教育财团 Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies 复旦发展研究院 Fudan Development Institute 上海论坛 Shanghai Forum 001 机构介绍 ｜ INTRODUCTION 复旦大学 Fudan University 复旦大学创建于 1905 年，原名复旦公学，是中国人自主创办的第一所高等院校，创始人 为中国近代知名教育家马相伯。校名“复旦”二字选自《尚书大传 • 虞夏传》中“日月光华， 旦复旦兮”的名句，意在自强不息，寄托当时中国知识分子自主办学、教育强国的希望。 2000 年，复旦大学与上海医科大学合并，成立新的复旦大学，进一步拓宽了学校的学科 结构，办学实力进一步增强，已经发展成为一所拥有哲学、经济学、法学、教育学、文学、历 史学、理学、工学、医学、管理学、艺术学等 11 个学科门类的综合性研究型大学。 一百多年来，学校在人才培养、科学研究、服务社会、文明传承与创新等方面为国家作出 了突出贡献。复旦师生谨记“博学而笃志，切问而近思”的校训，严守“文明、健康、团结、奋发” 的校风，力行“刻苦、严谨、求实、创新”的学风，发场“爱国奉献、学术独立、海纳百川、 追求卓越”的复旦精神，正按照党和国家的要求，发扬优良传统，不断开拓创新，以服务国家 为己任，以培养人才为根本，以改革开放为动力，深入推进内涵建设，全面提高教育质量，加 快建设具有中国特色的世界一流大学，为实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦作出新的更大的贡献。 Fudan University was established in 1905 as Fudan Public School. It was the first institution of higher education to be founded by a Chinese person, renowned modern educator Ma Xiangbo. The school’s name was chosen from the “Biography of Yuxia” in the Classic of History 《 ( 尚书大传 • 虞夏传》), where the two characters fù 复 (“return”) and dàn 旦 (“dawn”) are found in the famous lines “Brilliant are the sunshine and moonlight, again the morning glory after the night,” signifying continuous self-renewal, and expressing the hope that China could become a country with a strong higher education system run by Chinese intellectuals. Fudan University was merged with Shanghai Medical University in 2000, forming a new, stronger Fudan University with a broader set of disciplines: medicine, sciences, and arts. As one of the first participants in the 211 and 985 Projects, Fudan has developed into a comprehensive research university, with Departments of Philosophy, Economics, Law, Education, Literature, History, Science, Engineering, Medicine, and Management. Over the past hundred years, the school has made outstanding contributions to the country by developing talent, innovating in science and technology, carrying forward civilization, and serving society. Students and teachers of Fudan always keep in mind the school motto “Rich in knowledge and tenacious of purposes, inquiring with earnestness and reflecting with self-practice,” maintain the school spirit of “civilized, healthy, united, rousing,” practice the school traditions of being “hard working, rigorous, result-oriented, and innovative,” and develop the Fudan spirit of “patriotic service, academic independence, a diversity of approaches, and pursuit of excellence.” They make great contributions to the liberation and development of the people, the construction and development of the nation, and the civilization and progress of society. 002 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 韩国高等教育财团 Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies 韩国高等教育财团是由 SK 集团已故崔钟贤会长于 1974 年所建立的，旨在培养世界级的 学者、通过学术发展复兴国家的非营利公益法人。 自成立以来，财团致力于选拔韩国国内优秀人才并为他们在世界顶级的教育机构攻读博士 学位提供奖学金。迄今为止，该奖学金项目已经帮助 640 人在社会科学、自然科学、东洋学和 信息通信等领域取得博士学位，目前正在海外进修的学生也达 190 人。 在 1998 年 现 任 理 事 长、SK 集 团 崔 泰 源 会 长 就 任 后， 财 团 新 增 国 际 学 者 交 流 项 目 (International Scholar Exchange Fellowship)——邀请亚洲各国著名学者赴韩与韩国学者共 同开展研究。此外，财团还运营着 17 个分布于亚洲各地包括中国顶级大学在内的亚洲研究中 心 (Asia Research Center)，并举办了众多诸如北京论坛和上海论坛的国际性学术会议。 为了促进知识的分享，财团也定期与北京大学国际关系学院和布鲁金斯学会共同举办中美 韩三边会议、世界著名学者演讲、“透视中国”系列演讲和面向韩国中学生的“梦想”系列演讲。 Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies(KFAS) is a non-profit organization established in 1974 by late Chairman Jong-hyon Chey to promote national development through nurturing world class scholars and facilitating academic advancement. Since then, the nation’s top talents are selected and provided scholarships to go to internationally renowned universities abroad and achieve PhDs. The scholarship programs have enabled 640 individuals to become PhDs in the fields of social sciences, natural sciences, Chinese classics, and electrical engineering and computer science; about 190 students are currently studying abroad. Following Chairman Tae-won Chey’s inauguration as the next chairman of the board in 1998, KFAS expanded its programs to invite outstanding scholars from various parts of Asia through its International Scholar Exchange Fellowship program, operate seventeen Asia Research Centers in leading universities in China and other parts of Asia, and host a number of international academic conferences including Beijing Forum and Shanghai Forum. To promote knowledge-sharing, KFAS also regularly hosts Korea-China-U.S. trilateral conference jointly organized with the School of International Studies at Peking University and the Brookings Institution, special lectures by world renowned scholars, the “Understanding China” lecture series, and the inspirational “Dream Lecture” series that caters to Korean middle and high school students. 003 机构介绍 ｜ INTRODUCTION 复旦发展研究院 Fudan Development Institute 复旦发展研究院成立于 1993 年 2 月 12 日，从建院之始，研究院就始终坚持瞄准 国家与上海发展中的重大问题，展开战略和对策研究。 目前，研究院作为复旦大学重点建设的综合性文科平台和专业化高端智库，立足 以国家需求推动学科整合，以学科整合贡献国家发展，先后吸纳和培育了十余个跨学 科研究机构，通过重点建设中国大学智库论坛秘书处、上海市高校智库研究和管理中心， 办好上海论坛等国际性大型会议，探索建立开放、流动的运行体制，汇聚校内外研究 力量，着力加强对经济金融、网络安全、资源环境、金砖国家合作与全球治理、国家 治理等全局性重大问题研究。 同时，研究院广泛吸纳海外访问学者，并首创在海外建设“中国研究中心”，实现 中国发展和全球治理等重大问题的双向交互，成为新型高校智库国际化的引领者。 Fudan Development Institute (FDDI) was founded on February 12th, 1993. Since its establishment, the FDDI has conducted policy and strategy research on key issues relevant to the development of both Shanghai and of China as a whole. As a comprehensive platform for humanities and social sciences studies and a professional high-end think-tank constructed by Fudan University, the Institute has successively cultivated over 10 interdisciplinary research institutions. Through the international platform of the Shanghai Forum, China University Think Tank Forum and the Center for Think-tanks Research and Management in Shanghai, the Institute are exploring to form an open and mobile mechanism, integrate the research resources in and out of the university to facilitate researches on economics and finances, cyber security, resources and environment, cooperation among BRICS countries, global and national governance and other major issues. The Institute widely absorbs visiting scholars and establishes “Overseas Centre for China studies” at abroad, aiming to promote a deeper interaction between China and the globe. 004 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 上海论坛 Shanghai Forum “上海论坛”是目前在上海举办的最具知名度的国际性学术论坛品牌之一，创始于 2005 年。论坛作为非盈利性的学术组织，由复旦大学和韩国高等教育财团主办 , 复旦发展 研究院承办。论坛每年 5 月在上海举办年会。 进入 21 世纪，在以和平、发展、合作、共赢为主题的新时代，面对复苏乏力的全球经 济形势，纷繁复杂的国际和地区局面，论坛以“关注亚洲、聚焦热点、荟萃精英、推进互动、 增强合作、谋求共识”为宗旨，通过年会搭建“学界、政界、商界、媒体”多方交流互动 的平台，就亚洲和世界局势所面临的重大问题进行广泛深入的研讨，为亚洲经济、政治、 社会和文化的全面进步谋求共识。 多年来，众多国内外权威人士都曾作为特邀嘉宾在论坛分享思想与智慧，陈至立、成 思危、王家瑞、韩正等领导同志以及新加坡前总理李光耀、韩国前总理韩升洙、巴基斯坦 前总理肖卡特·阿齐兹、“欧元之父”罗伯特·蒙代尔、诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·希勒、 美联储前主席保罗·沃克尔、IMF 副总裁朱民、世界银行前行长罗伯特·佐利克、韩国 SK 集团董事长崔泰源以及知名经济学家吴敬琏教授等都莅临论坛并发表主旨演讲。论坛得到 了上海市委市政府的大力支持，韩正同志多次亲自参会并致辞。 论坛邀请世界知名企业和机构领导人等精英人士担任国际顾问团成员，与耶鲁大学、 芝加哥大学、圣路易斯华盛顿大学、乔治敦大学、彼得森国际经济研究所、香港中文大学、 早稻田大学、伦敦政治经济学院、杜伦大学、美国亚洲协会、德国弗里德里希 • 艾伯特基金会、 英国丁铎尔气候变化研究中心等机构以及韩国 SK 集团、复星集团等大型企业建立了密切的 战略合作关系。 “上海论坛 2015”将于 2015 年 5 月 23-25 日在上海举行，本届年会主题是“经济全 球化与亚洲的选择——亚洲的责任：创新合作模式”。 005 机构介绍 ｜ INTRODUCTION Shanghai Forum, launched in 2005, is known as one of the most famous international forums held in Shanghai. Co-hosted by Fudan University and Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies, undertaken by Fudan Development Institute (FDDI), the Forum is a non-governmental and non-profit academic organization, which holds an annual symposium each May in Shanghai. Entering the 21st century, the new era’s theme is “peace, development, cooperation and win-win”. Facing sluggish global economic recovery and complex international and regional situations, Shanghai Forum takes its mission to “Concentrate on Asia, Focus on Hot Issues, Congregate Elites, Promote Interactions, Enhance Cooperation and Seek Consensus” seriously. It endeavors to build an interactive platform for multi-sided communication amongst academic, political, commercial, and press circles through which significant problems both in Asia and the world will be discussed comprehensively and profoundly, so as to seek consensus on Asia’s economic, political, social and cultural progress. Over the years, large number of renowned guests have been invited to share their thoughts and wisdom at Shanghai Forum, including Chen Zhili (former Vice Chairman of the NPC of China), Cheng Siwei (former Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the NPC of China), Wang Jiarui (Minister of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee), Han Zheng (Party Secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Government), Lee Kuan Yew (former Prime Minister of Singapore), Han Seung-soo (former Prime Minister of Republic of Korea), Shaukat Aziz (former Prime Minister of Pakistan), Robert Alexander Mundell 006 (known as the "father" of the Euro, 1999 Nobel Laureate in Economics), Robert Shiller (2013 Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics), Paul Volcker (former Chairman of the Federal Reserve), Zhu Min (Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund), Robert Zoellick (former President of the World Bank Group), Chey Jae-won (Vice Chairman and CEO of SK Holdings), and Wu Jinglian (leading economist of China). Shanghai Forum also receives strong support from the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee and the Shanghai Municipal Government; Secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Government, Mr. Han Zheng, has attended the Forum and has delivered several speeches. Shanghai Forum invites leaders of the world’s top companies and institutions to form an international advisory group. Up until now, the Forum has forged close strategic co-operation with Yale University, University of Chicago, Washington University in St. Louis, Georgetown University, Peterson Institute for International Economics, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Waseda University, London School of Economics and Political Science, Durham University, the University of East Anglia, Asia Society of U.S., Friedrich Ebert Stiftung of Germany, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change of U.K., and multinational conglomerates such as SK Group of Korea and Fosun Group. Shanghai Forum 2015 will be held from May 23 to May 25, 2015 in Shanghai. The theme is “Economic Globalization and Asia's Choice - Asia’s Responsibility: Exploring New Approaches to Cooperation”. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 国际顾问团（以姓氏字母为序） International Advisory Board（in alphabetic order of last name） 崔再源 Jae-Won Chey SK 株式会社副会长兼首席执行官 Vice Chairman and CEO, SK Holdings, Korea 崔泰源 韩国 SK 集团董事长兼首席执行官 金在烈 韩国高等教育财团前事务总长 Tae-Won Chey Jae-Youl Kim Hillard G. Huntington 刘遵义 Lawrence J. Lau Chairman of the Board & CEO, SK Group, Korea Former President, Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies, Korea 美国斯坦福大学能量建模论坛执行理事 Executive Director, Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University, U.S.A. 中国香港中文大学前校长 Former Vice-Chancellor and President, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, China Coursera 首席执行官 Richard C. Levin 美国耶鲁大学前校长 CEO of Coursera Former President, Yale University, U.S.A 龙永图 博鳌亚洲论坛国际咨询委员会委员 中国外经贸部前首席谈判代表、副部长 Long Yongtu Member of the Council of Advisors, Boao Forum for Asia Former Vice Minister and Chief Representative for Trade Negotiations, Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, China 白井克彦 日本早稻田大学前校长 Joseph E. Stiglitz 美国哥伦比亚大学经济学教授 2001 年诺贝尔经济学奖得主 Katsuhiko Shirai Mark S. Wrighton Robert J. Zimmer 朱 民 Zhu Min Robert B. Zoellick Former President, Waseda University, Japan Professor of Economics, Columbia University, U.S.A. 2001 Nobel Laureate in Economics 美国圣路易斯华盛顿大学校长 Chancellor, Washington University in St. Louis, U.S.A. 美国芝加哥大学校长 President, University of Chicago, U.S.A. 国际货币基金组织副总裁 Deputy Managing Director, IMF 高盛集团国际顾问委员会主席 世界银行前行长，美国前贸易代表，美国前常务副国务卿 Chairman, Glodman Sachs International Advisors Former President of the World Bank Group, US Trade Representative, and US Deputy Secretary of State 007 上海论坛2005-2015 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM 2005-2015 上海论坛2005-2015 SHANGHAI FORUM 2005-2015 上海论坛 2015 主题与议题 Shanghai Forum 2015 Theme and Topics 上海论坛 2005-2014 主题与分议题 Shanghai Forum 2005-2014 Themes and Sub-forums 上海论坛 2015 组织委员会 Shanghai Forum 2015 Organizing Committee 上海论坛组织委员会历任领导 Former Leadership of Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee 008 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 上海论坛 2015 主题：经济全球化与亚洲的选择 ——亚洲的责任：创新合作模式 时间：2015年5月23-25日 上海论坛 2 0 1 5 高端 圆桌 ： • 应对亚洲的老龄化挑战 • 如何实现互联互通的一带一路？ • 亚洲能解决自己的安全问题吗？ • 食品安全问题的社会共治之道 组织单位：复旦大学－贵州科学院 • 中国金融开放与亚洲市场一体化 • 中国经济再十年：财政、金融转型与经济增长 组织单位：复旦大学－彼得森国际经济研究所 • FTA重塑东亚贸易秩序：远景、挑战与对策 组织单位：复旦大学－韩国梨花女子大学 • 新经济、新金融、新机遇 组织单位：复旦金融界同学会 • 信息社会与治理创新 上海论坛 2 0 1 5 子论 坛： 【 政治 】 • 欧亚安全：挑战与应对 组织单位：上海政法学院 • 移动互联与大数据时代的治理：机遇与挑战 • 城市治理与国家竞争力：上海如何建成现代化国际大都市？ • 创新驱动发展战略与创新型国家建设 • 国际维和与安全治理：亚洲的角色 组织单位：复旦大学-悉尼大学 • 亚洲的大陆秩序与海洋秩序 • 欧美对中国政治和发展的认知 组织单位：复旦－UC当代中国研究中心 复旦－欧洲中国研究中心 【 经济 】 • 亚洲经济如何重返繁荣？ • 亚非经贸合作和发展 组织单位：复旦大学－国际发展调查研究基金会 • 后危机时代的亚欧合作：模式机制创新 【治理 】 • 全球网络空间治理：亚洲视角 【 社会 】 • 巨灾风险管理与金融创新 组织单位：复旦大学－中国保险学会、上海保险学会 • 全球化冲击下的欧、亚社会保障体制改革 • 从科技到政策：环境、健康与可持续发展 • 公共健康安全与城市发展 【 环境 】 • 2030年中国温室气体排放峰值与碳市场发展 • 全球价值链，碳排放与竞争力 • 创新生态文明发展模式，促进亚洲区域经济和环境协同发展 • 国际气候变化谈判与亚洲减排经验 • “冰融相见”——北极生态保护中的亚洲角色 组织单位：上海交通大学 • 互联网治理创新：国家执政能力与社会多元心态 009 上海论坛2005-2015 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM 2005-2015 Shanghai Forum 2015 Theme: Economic Globalization and the Choice of Asia: Exploring New Approaches to Cooperation Time: May 23rd-25th, 2015 Shanghai Forum 2015 Roundtables • Dealing with Asia’s Aging Challenges • How to Realize the Interconnecting One-Belt-One-Road • Can Asia Solve Its Own Security Problems? • Collective Social Governance of Food Security Organizer: Fudan University & Guizhou Academy of Sciences • Opening of China's Finance and Integration of Asia's Markets • China in the Next Decade: Economic Growth and Fiscal/Financial Transformation Organizer: Fudan University & Peterson Institute for International Economics • Reshaping East Asia Through FTAs: Visions, Challenges and Strategies Organizer: Fudan University & Ewha Womans University • New Economy, New Finance, New Opportunities Organizer: Fudan Finance Society • Information Society and Governance Innovation Shanghai Forum 2015 Sessions 【 Politics】 • The Security of Eurasia: Challenges and Responses Organizer: Shanghai University of Political Sciences and Law • Peacekeeping Operations and Global Security Governance: Asia’s Contribution Organizer: Fudan University & University of Sydney • The Continental and Maritime Order in Asia • European and American Perspectives on China's Politics and Development Organizer: Fudan-UC Center on Contemporary China & Fudan-European Center for China Studies 【 Economics】 • How to Reignite Asian Economy? • Trade, Investment and Cooperation between Asia and Africa Organizer: Fudan University & Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International (FERDI) • Asia-Europe Cooperation in the Post-crisis Era: Innovations in Systems and Mechanisms 【 Governance】 • Asian Perspective on Global Cyberspace Governance • Internet Governance: The Governance Capability of the Country & Pluralistic Society Mentality • Governance Innovations in the Mobile Internet and Big Data Era: Asia’s Opportunities and Challenges • City Governance and National Competitiveness: How to Build Shanghai into a Modern Global Metropolis? • The Strategy of Innovation-driven Development and the Construction of Innovation Nations in Asia 【 Society】 • Facing Disasters: Risk Management and Financial Innovation Organizer: Fudan University & Insurance Society of China & Insurance Society of Shanghai • Reforming European and Asian Social Security Systems: Facing the Rising Tide of Globalization and Aging • Environmental Health and Sustainable Society: Bridging the Science and Policy Gap • Public Health, Security and Urbanization 【 Environment】 • China GHG Emission Peak and Carbon Market Development in 2030 • Global Value Chain, Carbon Emission and Competitiveness • Seeking Innovative Growth Pattern of Ecological Civilization to Facilitate the Integrated Development of Economy and Environment in Asia • International Climate Negotiations and Asian Countries’ Experience of Mitigation • Meeting on the Melting Ice: Asia’s Role in the Protection of the Arctic Ecosystem Organizer: Shanghai Jiao Tong University 010 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 上海论坛2005-2014主题与分议题 Shanghai Forum 2005-2014 Themes and Sub-forums 2005 主题：经济全球化与亚洲的选择——金融 • 能源 • 信息 Theme: Economic Globalization and the Choice of Asia: Finance, Global Energy, and Information Technology 时间：2005年5月16-17日 Time: May 16th-17th, 2005 分论坛议题： Sub-forums： 能源与发展 Developments in Energy • 全球能源供求趋势和各国能源战略 • Trends in Global Energy Supply and Demand and Each • 能源安全和能源合作 • 新能源与再生能源 信息与未来 • 信息化发展趋势和各国IT产业发展战略 • 信息化与信息安全 • 信息化鸿沟的全球挑战 Country’s Energy Strategy • Energy Security and Cooperation • New and Renewable Energy Resources The Future of Information Technology • Trends in Information Technology Development and Each Country’s Industrial Development Strategy • Security in Information Technology • Global Challenges of the “Digital Divide” 金融与合作 • 各国投资融资战略 • 货币合作和货币一体化 • 金融安全和金融体制改革 Cooperation in Finance • Global Investment and Financing Strategies • Currency Cooperation and Integration • Finance Security and Finance System Reform 011 上海论坛2005-2015 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM 2005-2015 2007 主题：经济全球化与亚洲的选择——能源 • 货币 • 共同市场 Theme: Economic Globalization and the Choice of Asia: Energy, Currency, and Common Market 时间：2007年5年25-27日 Time: May 25th-27th, 2007 分论坛议题： 全球视野下的亚洲能源 Energy Choices of Asia in the 21st Century—Challenge and Prospect • 能源消费模式与全球气候变化 • Energy Consumption Patterns and Global Climate Change • Alternative Energy and the Main Energy • 替代能源与主体能源 经济全球化下的东亚货币与金融合作 • 人民币汇率改革与亚洲汇率制度的选择 Monetary and Financial Cooperation in East Asia under the Background of Economic Globalization • 东亚货币与金融合作模式的选择 • RMB Exchange Rate Reform and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Asia • East Asian Monetary and Financial Cooperation 经济全球化下亚洲经济的一体化选择 Asia Economic Integration and Asian Competitiveness • 亚洲区域分工与经济一体化的趋势 • Asian Regional Division of Labor and Economic Integration • 亚洲的信息技术与产业布局重组 • Asia's Information Technology and Industrial Distribution Restructuring • 有效市场经济的可持续发展 • Effective Market Economy and Sustainable Development • 亚洲的整体竞争力与亚洲模式 • The Overall Competitiveness of Asia and the Asian Model • 技术扩散、产业布局与可持续发展 • Technology Diffusion, Industrial Distribution and Sustainable Development • 中国房地产市场的一体化 • Chinese Real Estate Market Integration • 法律、社会规范与发展 • Law, Social Norms and Development • 亚洲的价值观与亚洲经济发展 • Asian Values and Asian Economic Development 亚洲地缘经济与政治 Asian Geo-economics & -politics under Globalization • 亚洲的经济发展与政治变迁 • Asia's Economic Development and Political Change • 亚洲区域合作：问题与前景 • Asian Regional Cooperation: Problems and Prospects • 东北亚能源安全与区域合作 • Northeast Asia Energy Security and Regional Cooperation • 朝鲜半岛：经济与政治的互动 • The Korean Peninsula: the Economic and Political Interaction • 转变中的东盟与次区域合作 • Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Transformation and Subregional Cooperation 人口与社会经济协调发展 Population, Resources, Environment and Socio-economic Development • 全球化背景下的亚洲城市化发展模式 • Development Model of Asian Cities under Globalization • 亚洲人口发展态势与经济增长 • Asian Demographic Developments and Economic Growth • 社会性别平等与妇女的社会经济参与 012 Sub-forums： • Gender Equality and Women's Economic Participation WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 2008 主题：经济全球化与亚洲的选择——转型 • 增长 • 福祉 Theme: Economic Globalization and the Choice of Asia: Transition, Growth, and Welfare 时间：2008年5月25-27日 Time: May 25th-27th, 2008 分论坛议题： Sub-forums： 区域经济增长与公平政策 Regional Economic Growth and Equality Policy • 收入分配与经济增长 • 中外房地产政策对比 • Income Allocation and Economic Growth • Chinese and Foreign Housing Policy Comparison • Regional Economic Integration • Education, Labor Market and Economic Growth • Government, Enterprise and Economic Growth • The Experiences of Economic Growth • 区域经济一体化 • 教育、劳动力市场与经济增长 • 政府、企业与经济增长 • 经济增长的经验 亚洲金融转型 • 金融转型与金融合作 • 新兴亚洲区域化和中国：趋势和挑战 • 人民币汇率 • 危机防范与竞争力 亚洲经济转型：国际环境与制度重构 改革与中国经济 能源市场发展与风险管理 合作与东亚经济 亚洲经济转型与国际秩序 • 中国与印度的崛起对亚洲的影响 • 亚洲经济整合对地区安全的影响 • 东北亚核问题的解决与地区合作 社会与经济可持续发展 • • • • • 东亚的低生育水平概况 日本和韩国——东亚低生育的先驱 东亚价值与经济发展 中国低生育的趋势与评估 中国低生育的基本驱力及含义 全球化背景下亚洲城市的战略性选择 • • • • 城市基础设施与交通 人口城市化与城市发展 城市能源与环境 城市规划与治理 Financial Transition of Asia • Financial Transition and Financial Cooperation • Emerging Asian Regionalism and China: Trends and Challenges • RMB Exchange Rate • Crisis Prevention and Competitiveness Asia’s Economic Transformation and International Order • Reform and Chinese Economy • Energy Market Development and Risk Management • Cooperation and East Asian Economy Sustainable Development of Society and Economy • The Impact of the Rise of China and India on Asia • The Ramification of Asian Economic Integration on Regional Security • Regional Cooperation and the Resolution of Nuclear Issues in Northeast Asia Strategic Choices of Asian Cities under Globalization • Below-Replacement Fertility in East Asia: an Overview • Early Runners in East Asia: Japan and South Korea • East Asian Value and Economic Growth • Low Fertility in China, Recent Trends and Assessments • Low Fertility in China, Underlying Forces and Implications Economic Transformation for Asia: the International Environment and Institutional Restructuring • Infrastructure and Transportation in Cities • Population Urbanization and City Development • Energy and Environment in Cities • City Planning and Governance 013 上海论坛2005-2015 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM 2005-2015 2009 主题：经济全球化与亚洲的选择——危机 • 合作 • 发展 Theme: Economic Globalization and the Choice of Asia: Crisis, Cooperation, and Development 时间：2009年5月11-12日 Time: May 11th-12th, 2009 分论坛议题： 金融市场风波与治理 Disturbance and Governance in Financial Markets • 金融危机治理 • 金融危机后的监管变革 • 金融危机的影响 • Comparison of the Two Major Financial Systems: Origins of the Current Financial Crisis • International Financial Crisis: Lessons to China and East Asia (Opportunities and Challenges) • Building Shanghai into an International Financial Center: Lessons from Current Financial Crisis 亚洲工业化与世界经济增长危机： 合作还是对抗 • 金融危机下的国际经济关系调整 • 金融危机下的国际贸易与分工发展 • 金融危机下的国际能源挑战与合作 全球金融危机与新兴市场经济： 理论、经验与政策 • 中国经济发展 • 反思国际货币体系和中国贸易 • 金融危机下中国经济的回顾与展望 应对全球经济重构的区域经济利益 协调与合作 • • • • 区域经济协调发展战略与城市化 城市治理与可持续发展 区域经济与产业发展 房地产金融与房地产发展 巨变中的亚洲城市：危机与发展 • 城市的环境危机与发展 • 城市的社会危机与发展 • 城市危机与政府、企业的责任 亚洲经济社会可持续发展中的挑战与对策 • 气候变化及其对人类健康和福利的影响 • 人类健康、疾病负担及其对未来社会经济 发展的影响 • 应对环境变化和健康转变的政策措施 014 Sub-forums： Industrialization in Asia and the Crisis of Global Economic Growth: Cooperation vs. Resistance • Industrialization in Asia and the Crisis of Global Economic Growth • Tightening Balance of Energy Supply-Demand and Global Energy Development • Food Crisis and Global Welfare Enhancement The Global Financial Crisis and Newly Industrialized Economies (NIEs): Theories, Empirical Evidence and Policies • Chinese Economy: “Short-term Adjustment” or “Long-term Recession” • Rethinking the East Asian Economies' Growth Mode • Chinese Economy after Asian Financial Crisis Regional Economic Coordination and Collaboration in the Face of Global Economic Reconstruction • Regional Coordination and Cooperation • Urban governance and sustainable development • Mega Metropolitan Area Development • Urbanization and Housing Challenges and Development of Asian Cities Undergoing Dramatic Changes • Urban Social Crisis and Urban Development • Urban Environmental Crisis and Urban Development • Urban Crisis and Governmental, Corporation Responsibilities Challenges and Strategies for Asia’s Socioeconomic Development • Climate Changes and Their Impact on Population Health and Wellbeing • Population Health, Burden of Diseases, and Their Impact on Future Socio-economic Development • Development Implications of Labor-market Dynamics in East and South-east Asia 危机与亚洲国际关系 Crisis and Asia’s International Relations • • • • • • Rethinking Asian Development Model • International Economic System Reform and Asia • Crisis and Asian Economic and Political Cooperation • Development of the Asian Hinterland and Border • Trans-Pacific Relations: New Administrations and New Opportunities 重思亚洲发展模式 国际经济体系变革与亚洲 危机与亚洲政经合作 亚洲腹地与边陲的发展 跨太平洋关系：新政府、新机遇 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 2010 主题：经济全球化与亚洲的选择——反思 • 复苏 • 重构 Theme: Economic Globalization and the Choice of Asia: Reflect, Recover, and Restructure 时间：2010年5月29-31日 Time: May 29th-31st, 2010 分论坛议题： Sub-forums： 金融危机后的反思与重构 Reflection & Restructuring after the Global Financial Crisis • 危机后各国金融市场的表现 • 各国反危机金融政策的评估 • 危机后国际货币体系的改革 • Post-Crisis Financial Market Performance • Evaluation on Anti-Crisis Financial Policies • Post-Crisis Reform on International Monetary System 新兴能源与低碳经济：亚洲经济转型的引擎 Emerging Energy & Low Carbon Economy: the Engine for Asia Economic Transformation • 新兴能源利用：技术创新与市场培育 • 低碳经济：发展路径与政策选择 • 国际能源市场：风险与挑战 世界经济结构调整与区域经济合作 • 世界经济走向复苏的道路选择 • 稳定与平衡增长的世界经济体系构建之路 • 亚太经济合作的路径与模式选择 中国经济复苏的全球影响：道路与经验 • 重新思考亚洲发展模式 • 全球复苏中的政府与市场 • 亚洲复苏中的区域集聚与平衡发展 亚洲国际关系的重构 • 东亚国际关系重构 • 亚洲反恐格局重组 • 气候变化合作重思 全球危机后亚洲城市的反思 • 亚洲世界城市与金融服务 • 大城市人口与发展 • 城市环境可持续发展 • Emerging Energy: Technological Innovation & Market Development • Low Carbon Economy: Development & Policy • International Energy Market: Risk & Challenge Structural Re-adjustment of World Economy & Regional Cooperation • The Way Toward World Economy Recovery • The Road to a Stable & Balanced World Economic System • Choices for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation: Path & Model Impact of China’s Economic Recovery: Path & Experience • Reflection on Asia Development Models • Roles of Government & Market in the Global Economic Recovery • Agglomeration & Balanced Development in Asia Economic Recovery International Relations in Asia: Restructuring, Reorganization & Reflection • Restructuring of International Relations in East Asia • Reorganization of Anti-terrorism in Asia • Reflection on the Cooperation in Climate Changes Reflection on Asia Cities after the Global Financial Crisis • World Cities & Financial Services in Asia • Population & Development in Megacities • Sustainable Environmental Urban Development 变化中的公共政策：影响与价值 Public Policies in a Changing World: Roles & Implication • 大众福祉与公共福利政策 • 公共安全与公共政策 • 人口老龄化对经济社会发展的影响及其政策选择 • Social Well-being & Public Welfare Policies • Public Security & Public Policies • Aging Population vs Socioeconomic Development: Impact & Solutions 015 上海论坛2005-2015 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM 2005-2015 2011 主题：经济全球化与亚洲的选择——市场、政府和全球治理结构 Theme: Economic Globalization and the Choice of Asia: Market, Government and Global Governance 时间：2011年5月28-30日 Time: May 28th-30th, 2011 分论坛议题： 亚洲的合作与治理 Asia's Cooperation and Governance • 东亚合作的新动向 • 亚洲的合作与治理 : 新挑战、 新特点、新探索 • New Trends in East Asian Cooperation • Asia’s Cooperation and Governance: New Challenge, New Characteristic, New Exploration 亚洲的人口城市化战略与劳动力市场整合 • 亚洲劳动力市场整合及其对亚洲未来经济 格局的影响 • 亚洲人口城市化模式:反思与选择 • 社会(公共)住房与中国未来房产市场 Urbanization Strategies and Labor Market Reconstruction in Asia • Labor Market Reconstruction in Asia and Its Effects on Asia’s Future Economy • Urbanization Model in Asia: Reflect and Choice • Social Housing and China’s Future Housing Market 金融与货币：危机之后的创新与监管 Finance and Currency: Innovation and Regulation after the Crisis • • • • 美国金融监管法案的影响 国际货币体系改革与人民币国际化 金融市场创新和政府监管 国际储备资产管理的多元化 • Effects of the U.S. Financial Regulation Reform Bill • International Monetary System Reform and the Internationalization of RMB • Innovation of Financial Market and Government Supervision • Diversification of International Reserve Management 危机后货币、贸易与投资的全球治理 Global Governance of Currency, Trade and Investment after the Crisis • 危机后国际货币体系治理与区域合作 • 危机后贸易与投资自由化的挑战及应对 • 危机治理中政府与市场的关系 政府在市场经济中的作用： 理论研究与历史比较 • 政府在市场中的作用:后危机时代的经济学 理论反思 • 法治政府与市场运行:现代市场经济运行的良 序制度条件 • 国家与市场:近代历史的比较研究 亚洲经济低碳化的技术愿景与机制设计 • 从高碳经济走向低碳经济:亚洲工业化模式的反思 • 政府主导走向市场主导:亚洲经济低碳化的 机制设计 • 从研究开发到扩散推广:亚洲经济低碳化的 技术愿景 016 Sub-forums： • Post-crisis International Monetary System Governance and Regional Cooperation • Post-crisis Trade & Investment Liberalization: Challenges and Measures • Government and Market in Crisis Management Role of Government in a Market Economy: Theoretical Studies and Historical Comparisons • Effects of Government in Market Mechanism: Theoretical Reflection in the Post-crisis Era • Law-ruled Governments and Market Mechanism: Optimal Institutional Condition for Modern Market Economy • Nation and Market: A Comparative Study of Recent Economic History Technical Prospects and Appropriate Mechanisms for Low-Carbon Economy of Asia • From High-Carbon to Low-Carbon Economy: Reflection on the Industrialization Pattern of Asia • From Government-Oriented to Market-Oriented: Appropriate Mechanisms for Low-Carbon Economy of Asia • From Research & Development to Deployment & Diffusion: Technical Prospects for Low-Carbon Economy of Asia WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 2012 主题：经济全球化与亚洲的选择——未来十年的战略 Theme: Economic Globalization and the Choice of Asia: Strategies for 2011-2020 时间：2012年5月26-28日 Time: May 26th-28th, 2012 分论坛议题： 【经济】 经济危机深化中的国际贸易、投资与治理模式 • • • • 对本次危机的再认识 经济危机深化中的国际贸易关系 经济危机深化中的国际投资关系 经济危机深化中的治理模式 亚洲未来十年的法律合作 • • • • 亚洲法律合作的历史与现状 亚洲气候变化、环境法及海洋法 亚洲民商事法、知识产权与国际法 亚洲金融法治秩序、跨国诉讼及仲裁 【社会】 国际货币治理的新使命：合作与共赢 未来十年亚洲的城市化和城市转型 • 中日韩金融合作 • 国际金融治理与人民币国际化 • 金融体系发展与上海国际金融中心建设 • 亚洲城市化发展的道路和模式 • 全球化和亚洲城市发展 • 亚洲城市发展面临的挑战和城市管理 经济发展与社会转型：东亚社会转型的历史经验与 中国未来的发展道路 亚洲未来十年人口与社会发展的新挑战和新战略 • 东亚模式的演变与重构：探寻外向型经济增长模式 的可持续发展之道 • 经济发展与社会转型：东亚国家从威权体制向多元 民主政治转变的历史经验 • 经济发展与法制转型：东亚国家的法治建设与多元 民主政治的互动 创业、创新与可持续管理 • • • • 创业：青年企业家培育和成长 创新：亚洲未来十年发展的新动力 可持续管理：企业新环境管理策略 企业社会责任的实践与发展前景(学生专场) 【政治】 塑造新的东亚地区秩序 • 经济发展模式、社会变迁与生育率下降的比较研究 及其政策意义 • 人口老龄化对社会经济的影响及其应对 • 各国人口态势对亚洲整体发展格局的影响 【能源】 未来十年东亚生态文明建设的因应之道 • • • • 绿色东亚的历史回顾、现实观察与未来期许 东亚未来十年各种污染下的环境压力及因应之道 绿色低碳发展：东亚新兴工业化地区的经验 绿色小康之路：中国生态文明建设的思考 低碳、安全、增长压力下的亚洲能源供需体系变革 • 气候变化风险：测度、评估及其对能源供需体系变革的意义 • 能源安全风险：多国博弈与市场结构 • 亚洲能源供需体系变革：动力、机制与路径 • 各主要地区成员对地区秩序的观点和政策 （中、日、韩、东盟） • 如何塑造新的地区秩序 • 中国的作用 • 构建新秩序的挑战 017 上海论坛2005-2015 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM 2005-2015 Sub-forums： 【 Economics 】 Legal Cooperation in Asia for 2011-2020 International Trade, Investment and Governance with the Intensifying Economic Crisis • History and Status Quo of Asia's Legal Cooperation • Reflection on the Current Economic Crisis • Civil Law, Intellectual Property Right and International • International Trade Relations with the Intensifying Economic Crisis • International Investment Relations with the Intensifying Economic Crisis • Patterns of Governance with the Intensifying Economic Crisis New Mission for International Monetary Governance: A Win-win Situation • Financial Cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea • International Financial Governance and RMB Internationalization • Financial System Development and Shanghai International Financial Center Construction Economic Development and Social Transformation: the Historical Experience of Social Transition in East Asia and China's Future Road of Development • Evolution and Reconstruction of the East Asian Model: In Searching of the Way of Sustainable Development of the Export-Oriented Economic Growth Model • Economic Development and Social Transformation: Historical Experience of Transformation from Authoritarian Regimes to Pluralistic Democracies in East Asia • Economic Development and Reformation of Legal • Climate Change, Environmental Law and Ocean Law of Asia Law of Asia • The Financial Legal Order, Cross-border Lawsuit and Arbitration in Asia 【 Sociology 】 Asia's Urbanization and Urban Transition for 2011-2020 • Diversification of Asia's Urbanization • Globalization and Asian Urbanism • Challenges and Better Urban Governance Asia's Population and Social Development for 2011-2020: New Challenge, New Strategy • Patterns of Economic Development, Social Change, and Fertility Decline in Comparative Perspective: Analysis and Policy Implications • Implications of Population Aging on Socioeconomic Development and Coping Strategies • The Impact of National Demographic Changes on Asia's General Development 【 Energy 】 Systems: Interaction between the Rule of Law and East Asian Ecological Construction Strategies for 2011-2020 Pluralistic Democracies in East Asia • History, Status Quo and Expectancy of an Environmentally Friendly East Asia Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Sustainable Management • East Asian Strategies against Environmental Pollution • Entrepreneurship: Cultivation of Young Entrepreneurs • Low-carbon Development: Experience of East Asian and Their Growth • Innovation: New Drive of Asia's Development for This Decade during This Decade Emerging Industrial Zones • Reflection upon Chinese Ecological Construction • Sustainable Management: Management Strategies for Enterprises under New Circumstances • Corporate Social Responsibility Practices and Prospects (Student Panel) 【 Politics 】 Creating a New Regional Order in East Asia • Views and Policies by Major Actors towards Regional Orders (China, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN) • How to Create a New Regional Order • The Role of China • Challenges to Creating a New Regional Order 018 Low Carbonization, Security and Everincreasing Demand: Restructuring of Asian Energy System • Risks of Measuring and Evaluating the Climate Change: Implications to Energy System Transformation • Uncertainties and Risks of Energy Security: Multinational Games and Market Structure • Asian Energy System Transformation: Driving Forces, Mechanism and Paths WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 2013 主题：经济全球化与亚洲的选择 ——亚洲智慧：在多元中寻求和谐发展 Theme: Economic Globalization and the Choice of Asia: Asia’s Wisdom: Seeking Harmonious Development in Diversity 时间：2013年5月25-27日 Time: May 25th-27th, 2013 分论坛议题： Sub-forums： 【 经济 · 金融 】 【 Economics & Finance 】 • 增长奇迹之后的亚洲：困境、挑战与选择 • 没有安全资产世界经济靠什么复苏? • 新形势下的亚洲区域经济一体化：目标、路径和政策 • After the Asian Miracle: Problems, Challenges and Choices • How Does the World Economy Recover without Safe Assets? 【 政治 · 法律 】 【 Politics & Law 】 • 亚洲智慧：化解纷争之道 • 亚洲法律智慧的多元性与统一化 • 以亚洲智慧解决全球治理问题 • Asia's Wisdom: Approaches to Disputes • Asian Legal Wisdom: Diversity and Unification • Global Governance and Asia's Wisdom 【 城市 · 社会 】 【 Urbanology & Sociology 】 • 创新驱动和亚洲城市发展 • 如何保障亚洲四十亿人的健康？ • Innovation-driven Urban Development in Asia • How to Assure Health for 4 Billion People in Asia? 【 环境 · 能源 】 • 崛起的亚洲可再生能源：从新技术、新产业走向新市场 • 气候变化与环境保护：人类关注的焦点 • The Integration of Regional Economy in Asia: Target, Path and Policy 【 Environment & Energy 】 • Emerging Asian Renewable Energy: From New Technology and New Industry to a New Market • Climate Change and Environmental Protection: The Focus of Human Attention 019 上海论坛2005-2015 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM 2005-2015 2014 主题：经济全球化与亚洲的选择——亚洲转型：寻找新动力 Theme: Economic Globalization and the Choice of Asia: Asia Transforms: Identifying New Dynamics 时间：2014年5月24-26日 Time: May 24th-26th, 2014 分论坛议题： 020 Sub-forums： 【 经济 · 金融 】 【 Economics & Finance 】 • 十字路口的中国经济：高增长的终结？ • 世界经济增长结构的变化与亚洲面临的新挑战 • 金融创新与金融稳定 • The Chinese Economy at Crossroads: End of Hyper Growth? • Structural Transformation of the World's Economic Growth and New Challenges to Asia • Financial Innovation and Stability 【 政治 · 政策 】 【 Politics & Policy 】 • 亚太合作的新视野 • 国际大都市发展的政策引导与优化：创新与智慧 • New Perspectives in Asia-Pacific Cooperation • Policy Guidance for International Metropolis Development: Innovation and Wisdom 【 社会 · 健康 】 【 Society & Health 】 • 变化中的亚洲劳动力市场 • 城市化的升级与城市的未来 • 环境与卫生系统持续发展的创新之路 • The Changing Labor Market in Asia • Upgrading Urbanization and the Future Cities • Innovation Path to Sustainable Development for Environment and Health System 【 能源 · 环境 】 【 Energy & Environment 】 • 迈向包容性发展：绿色能源转型与环境气候治理 • Approaching Inclusive Development: Green Energy transformation and Environmental Climate Governance WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 上海论坛2015组织委员会 Shanghai Forum 2015 Organizing Committee 主 任 Chairs 许宁生 Xu Ningsheng 朱之文 Zhu Zhiwen 朴仁国 Park In-kook 复旦大学校长 复旦大学校务委员会主任 韩国高等教育财团事务总长 President, Fudan University Chancellor, Fudan University President, Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies, Korea 常务副主任 秘书处 秘书处 Secretariat Secretariat Executive Vice Chair 秘书长 Secretary-General 常务副主任 Executive Vice Secretary-General 林尚立 Lin Shangli 陈寅章 Chen Yinzhang 张 怡 Zhang Yi 复旦大学副校长 复旦大学北欧中心主任 复旦大学文科科研处副处长 Vice President, Fudan University Director, Nordic Centre, Fudan University Deputy Director, Administration Office of Humanities and Social Sciences Programs, Fudan University 021 上海论坛2005-2015 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM 2005-2015 上海论坛组织委员会历任领导 (以姓氏字母为序) Former Leadership of Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee (in alphabetic order of last name) 金在烈 Jae-Youl Kim 秦绍德 Qin Shaode 原韩国高等教育财团事务总长 上海论坛2005-2011组织委员会主任 原复旦大学校务委员会主任 上海论坛2005-2011组织委员会主任 Former President, Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies, Korea Chair, Shanghai Forum 2005-2011 Organizing Committee Former Chancellor, Fudan University Chair, Shanghai Forum 2005-2011 Organizing Committee 王生洪 Wang Shenghong 王卫平 Wang Weiping 原复旦大学校长 上海论坛2005-2008组织委员会主任 原复旦大学常务副校长 上海论坛2010-2011常务副主任 Former President, Fudan University Chair, Shanghai Forum 2005-2008 Organizing Committee Former Executive Vice President, Fudan University Executive Vice Chair, Shanghai Forum 2010-2011 Organizing Committee 许 征 Xu Zheng 燕 爽 Yan Shuang 复旦大学副校长 上海论坛2005-2009组织委员会 常务副主任 上海市委宣传部副部长 原复旦大学校务委员会副主任 上海论坛2005秘书处秘书长 Vice President, Fudan University Executive Vice Chair, Shanghai Forum 2005-2009 Organizing Committee Vice Director-General of the Publicity Department, CPC Shanghai Municipal Committee Former Vice Chancellor, Fudan University Secretary-General, Shanghai Forum 2005 Organizing Committee 杨玉良 Yang Yuliang 原复旦大学校长 上海论坛2009-2014组织委员会主任 Former President, Fudan University Chair, Shanghai Forum 2009-2014 Organizing Committee 022 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 拾年寄语 CONGRATULATORY LETTERS AND REMARKS 023 拾年寄语 ｜ CONGRATULATORY LETTERS AND REMARKS (以姓氏字母为序) (in alphabetic order of last name) 金在烈 Jae-Youl Kim 原韩国高等教育财团事务总长 Former President, Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies 祝贺上海论坛十周年 传承亚洲价值，铸造人类文明 Congratulations on the 10th anniversary of Shanghai Forum! Carry forward Asian values; forge the future of human civilization. 秦绍德 Qin Shaode 原复旦大学校务委员会主任 Former Chancellor, Fudan University 增进共识 推动合作——纪念上海论坛创办十周年 Facilitate consensus and promote collaboration. In commemoration of the 10th anniversary of Shanghai Forum 024 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 王生洪 Wang Shenghong 原复旦大学校长 Former President, Fudan University 贺上海论坛十周年 继往开来，再创辉煌 Congratulations on the 10th anniversary of Shanghai Forum! With wisdom to learn from the past and courage to break new grounds, greater success will come around. 杨玉良 Yang Yuliang 原复旦大学校长 Former President, Fudan University 走亚洲道路，办一流论坛 Hold to the Asian path and grow into a worldclass forum. 025 拾年寄语 ｜ CONGRATULATORY LETTERS AND REMARKS 朴仁国 In-kook Park 韩国高等教育财团事务总长 President, Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies 贺上海论坛十周年 上海论坛迎来了她的十周年纪念，这是一个令人高兴的时刻。上海论坛由复旦大学与 韩国高等教育财团共同主办，围绕“经济全球化与亚洲的选择”的主题，已经成为了知识 分享的活跃平台。她发起于2005年，适逢复旦大学百年校庆。 在过去的十年中，上海被誉为世界的未来之城，全球化的中心，数字革命的阵地。上 海不断地改变并深刻地影响着我们所生活的这个世界。尽管我们经历了全球金融危机，目 睹了阿拉伯之春后中东世界的动荡，但我们仍然坚持不懈地在人类社会的诸多领域大步前 行，取得突破，尤其是科技领域的创新。今天，手机的普及率已经覆盖全球80%的人口； 3D打印成为了现实；科学家在月球上发现了水；高收入国家的百岁老人数量在不断增加。 然而，另一方面，贫困仍在全球肆虐，世界上还有18%的无电人口，即使在联合国提 出千年发展目标并为之努力了15年后的今天，发展中国家依旧前路茫茫。青年人口失业 率，日益严重的社会不平等已经成为困扰各国的难题，并导致了全球性的严重恶果。我们 身处的世界有着如此巨大而荒芜的鸿沟，我们不能仅靠政府和私人的力量来解决问题，还 必须依靠专家学者的帮助来应对这些艰巨的挑战和世界性的危机。 在这种大趋势下，我很荣幸过去十年能与复旦大学携手合作，共同催生出丰硕的成 果。我衷心希望上海论坛能继续为寻找这个世界未来发展的方向提供平台，为更多思想和 创新的产生提供机会。我深信，分享知识可以消除分歧，减少不平等，并最终实现世界和 平与和谐发展。我也相信，上海论坛一定能够发扬上海海纳百川的传统，欢迎更多秉持这 一理念的有识之士进行智慧的碰撞，促进世界走向共同繁荣。 朴仁国 韩国高等教育财团事务总长 026 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG Congratulatory Message: 10th Anniversary of the Shanghai Forum It is a joyous occasion to be celebrating the tenth anniversary of the Shanghai Forum. This vibrant platform for sharing knowledge under the overarching theme of “Economic Globalization and the Choice of Asia” was jointly launched by Fudan University and Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies in 2005, the year of Fudan University’s centenary. During the past decade, Shanghai has been lauded as the world’s most futuristic city and the epicenter of globalization and digital revolution, which have continued to reshape and deeply affect the world we live in. Despite setbacks such as the global financial crisis and fluctuations in the Middle East following the Arab Spring, the world continues to persevere and make strides across a number of sectors, most notably in sciences and technologies. For example, eighty percent of the world’s population now uses mobile phones; 3-D printing has become a reality; water was discovered on the moon; and the centenarian population in many high-income countries continues to grow. However, on the other end of the spectrum, poverty still plagues the world, and around 18% of the global population lacks access to electricity. Even after a fifteen year United Nations directed effort to achieve MDGs, developing countries are still struggling towards an uncertain future. Youth unemployment and ever-increasing social inequalities have become a ubiquitous calamity with serious global consequences. We live in a world of devastating gaps and desolating crevasses. Thus, we also live in a world that requires not just governments and the private sector but also scholars and researchers tasked with addressing such daunting challenges and supranational crises. Amidst such megatrends, I am proud and heartened by the wonderful partnership with Fudan University over the last ten years, which has led to abundant achievements. I hope the Shanghai Forum will continue to shed light on possibilities for navigating the future and exploring new kinds of thought and innovation. I believe the effective sharing of knowledge will contribute to bridging differences and narrowing inequalities to ultimately bring greater peace and harmony in the world. Moreover, the Forum can promote Shanghai’s time-honored tradition of opening its doors to those who believe knowledge-sharing will ensure co-prosperity. Sincerely, In-kook Park President Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies 027 拾年寄语 ｜ CONGRATULATORY LETTERS AND REMARKS Michael Grubb 英国伦敦大学学院可持续资源研究院国际能源与气候变化政 策教授《气候政策》杂志主编 Professor, International Energy and Climate Change Policy, Institute of Sustainable Resources, University College London (UCL) Editor-in-Chief, Climate Policy journal, UK 这是我的首次上海论坛之行，这也是一次非常 棒的经历，期望再次相会。 感谢并祝贺上海论坛！ It’s my first time at Shanghai Forum – a great experience, and it won’t be my last! Thanks and congratulations. Alessandra Guariglia 伯明翰大学经济系主任 Head of the Department of Economics, University of Birmingham "我很享受此次的上海论坛之行，也很荣幸能够受 邀参加上海论坛，我认为这次的论坛从各方面来看都安 排得非常完美。" “I really enjoyed the Shanghai Forum and am very honored of having been invited to it. I think the whole event was extremely well organized from all aspects.” 028 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 李碧建 Li Bijian 中国外交部亚洲司参赞 Counselor, Department of Asian Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC "我有幸全程参与了‘亚洲智慧——解决纷 争之道’各议题的讨论，亲历了各种观点的碰撞 和交锋，听取了许多解决纷争的新看法和对策建 议，可谓收获颇多。尤其是自己十分荣幸主持了 中日关系的专场讨论，发现双方学界的看法和立 场相去甚远，要弥合尚需时日，且考验我们智库 的智慧和卓见。但正如我在结束讨论总结发言所 说，朋友可以选择，但邻居无法选择，中日互为 近邻，必须学会如何和平相处。尽管观点差异巨 大，但只要两国学者能够坐到一起来交流看法， 这就是希望和成功之所在。这次论坛对自己今后 所做的相关工作将产生重大推进作用。" “I felt honored to participate in the discussion of the panel ‘Asia’s Wisdom: Approaches to Disputes’ and gained a lot through its heated discussion, collided views and valuable proposals. I was especially moved by the special session hosted by myself about Sino-Japan relationship, in which there were intense debates between two different academic groups. Just like what I concluded in the summary of the session, we could not choose our neighbors as we wish, and China and Japan, as close neighbors, have to stick to the principle of peaceful coexistence. Though different in opinions, the spirit of the Chinese and Japanese scholars sitting together to exchange ideas is encouraging. The forum will boost my future work greatly.” 刘利刚 Liu Ligang 澳新银行大中华区经济研究总监 Chief Economist for Greater China, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) 希望上海论坛在明年十周年之际做的更好、 更实、更强。 Wish the Shanghai Forum more successful, insightful and powerful in its tenth annual conference next year! David Richard Mares 加州大学圣地亚哥分校政治学教授 Professor of Political Science, University of California, San Diego 中欧双方经济框架体制下的金融体系有诸多共通 之处，你们的出版物对于深化在这些领域的交流具有 关键性的影响。 I consider your publication a key impact to the deepening of our exchange in areas where the Chinese and European economic structure of finance in the economy have so much in common. 029 拾年寄语 ｜ CONGRATULATORY LETTERS AND REMARKS Graham Mather 世界自由贸易区协会主席 Chairman, World Free Zone Convention 上海论坛议题广泛，专家云集，讨论开放且自 由，观点精彩而富有原创性，可喜可贺！会议为各国 精英们提供了绝佳的高水平对话与交流的平台。 My congratulation on the breadth of scholarship, openness of discussion and interesting and original ideas which prevail at the Shanghai Forum. It is an excellent high level discussion opportunity for international leaders. Yves Mersch 欧洲央行执行董事 Executive Board Member, European Central Bank 上海论坛致力于推动中国经济融入世界经 济，以期中国能够重新获得与其辉煌历史和强大 活力相符合的地位。你们的坚定决心令我钦佩。 I would like to express my admiration to the determination of the Forum to contribute determinedly to the integration of the Chinese economy into the world economy in order to reclaim the place that is due to China in view of its history and its dynamism. 030 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG Pauline van der Meer Mohr 鹿特丹伊拉斯谟大学校长 President, Erasmus University Rotterdam 感谢上海论坛精心筹办了富有启发、充满洞见的 三日盛会。你们的敬业、学识和能力使得此次论坛名 家云集，也令我极为感动。祝一切顺利，希望明年能 有机会再次参会。 Thank you, Shanghai Forum, for organizing 3 inspiring and insightful days. I continue to be impressed by your dedication, knowledge and ability to cast a wonderful line-up of characters! All the best and I hope to be back next year. Robert A. Mundell 哥伦比亚大学经济学教授 1999 年诺贝尔经济学奖得主 Professor of Economics, Columbia University 1999 Nobel Laureate in Economics "我认为这次的论坛非常有意思。来自不同领域的 专家，就不同的主题做了多元化的演讲，从中我得到 很多有价值的信息。论坛提供了一个广阔平台，全面 地展示出了许多内容。这是一次非常有意义的论坛。 从那些演讲中可以看到，中国已经具备相当高的研究 水平，人们不仅仅满足于浏览报刊头条，而是更深入 地去探索事物的本质和原因。我认为论坛的主办方在 演讲嘉宾及话题的选择上是十分正确和明智的。" “I think this forum is really exceptionally interesting. And what I found very valuable about it is the great diversity of the speeches, coming from people with different expertise, talking about different things. And it has created a kind of a balanced picture and a wide range of things. I think it’s really really valuable. The speeches I read about China have probed deeply into a high level where people were not just superficial level of just newspapers but it’s gone deeply into the causes. I think they’ve made a very good choice of speakers and subjects.” 031 拾年寄语 ｜ CONGRATULATORY LETTERS AND REMARKS Adam Posen 彼得森国际经济研究所所长 President, Peterson Institute for International Economics 很荣幸有机会参加上海论坛2014！这是一次 享誉世界的高水平聚会，为复旦赢得声誉，为上 海增添光彩。 It is my great opportunity to participate in the 2014 Shanghai Forum. It is a world famous high level gathering, building on Fudan University’s quality and Shanghai’s excitement. 沙祖康 Sha Zukang 联合国前副秘书长 复旦大学国际问题研究院名誉院长 Former Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Honorary Dean, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University 上海论坛办得好，坚信会越来越好！望各界都来参 与并支持上海论坛。 It is a great event which makes me believe that the Forum would get better in the future. I am looking forward to seeing the involvement and contribution of various parties to the Shanghai Forum. 032 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG Robert J. Shiller 美国耶鲁大学经济学教授 2013 年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者 Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economics 上海论坛2014给我提供了一次开拓眼 界、分享观点和结交新友的绝好机会，这的 确是一次非常难忘的活动。 The Shanghai Forum 2014 provided me with a wonderful opportunity to expand horizon, share idea, and make new friends. It is a truly memorable event. 谢湧海 Xie Yonghai 中银国际副总裁 Vice President, Hong Kong Bank of China International Co. Ltd 上海论坛：汇五洲贤才，集八方良言；论天 地经纬，绘中华梦想！ Shanghai Forum is a great platform where global talents gather together to contribute viewpoints concerning current social affairs and draw blueprint for China’s future development. 033 拾年寄语 ｜ CONGRATULATORY LETTERS AND REMARKS 叶兆辉 Paul Yip 香港大学社会行政学系教授 Professor of Sociology, University of Hong Kong “早前笔者参加了在上海举行的上海论坛，3天的论 坛有不同的题材，例如国家安全、金融风暴、城市建设等 题目。笔者参与了亚洲城市发展的专题讨论，目的是探讨 亚洲城市如何通过创新驱动塑造发展的新动力。有50多位 来自不同的国家的专家学者参与，我们交流了不同国家和 城市创新领域的实践、如何理解和实施城市创新的学术思 想和新的理论。 当中发现，在亚洲不同地区都需要按本身的情况和 本土特质不断发展，重要的是不断创新和进步来面对发展 过程中的挑战。创新所涉及的范畴不单止是产业技能的提 升，更要在管理和规划上不断反思和推进。为的是建造一 个满足各种人口和社会发展、改善居民居住生活环境、营 造一个高质量的城市生活。中国城市的发展，根据复旦大 学任远教授的讨论，现在不单止讲求什么形象工程，更需 要深化建设。一方面要有由上而下制度的建设和改革，也 依靠由下到上的个人自发实践。上海近几年急速发展，无 论硬件和软件都不断改善。现在很多生活上的需要都有手 机应用程序（Apps）的应用，他们已有声音控制的出租车 电召服务，还有不少生活Apps 的运用，香港在智能化的应 用确实有点落后。” “The three-day forum had various topics for discussion such as national security, financial crisis, urban construction, etc. The session I attended deliberated on Asian urban development, aiming to find out how Asian cities drew development momentum from innovation. More than 50 experts from different countries were in attendance and exchanged ideas on their own countries and cities’ innovation experiences as well as how to put urban innovation theories into practice. The discussion concludes that different areas of Asia need to make development in terms of their own situation. The key point lies in continued innovation and progress to face challenges in the process of development. Innovation involves not only improvement of technical skills, but also reflection and promotion of management and planning, so as to create a high-quality urban lifestyle which meets the needs of various kinds of people by amelioration of their living standard. According to Prof. Ren Yuan from Fudan University, China’s urban development should focus on deep construction rather than image project, requiring, on the one hand, top to bottom construction and reform, while on the other hand, voluntary personal practice from bottom to top. The rapid development of Shanghai has made improvement in both hardware and software. Nowadays, Apps is widely used in daily life, for example, hailing taxi with voice control, and in this respect, HK has somewhat lagged behind.” Robert Zoellick 第十一任世界银行集团总裁 The Eleventh World Bank Group President "我认为这次论坛非常完美。来自亚洲各国及世界 各地的嘉宾更使得本次论坛更为丰富和充实。同时， 论坛也展现了上海以及复旦的卓越风采。与韩国高等 教育财团（KFAS）的合作同样非常有意义，我相信这 次的合作将有助于加强中韩两国之间的联系和交流。 因此我非常期待明年论坛的举办，下届论坛也一定 会紧扣时代脉搏，反映当年最值得关注的事件与议题。 最后还要诚挚地赞扬本次论坛主办方的辛勤努力 和工作。" “I think it has been an excellent conference. The opportunity to bring people from all across Asia and other regions of the world has very much enriched it. I think this is a wonderful showcase for Shanghai and Fudan, and I think it was particularly beneficial that it was done in contact with KFAS because I think it also strengthens the ties between Korea and China. So I look forward to learning about the outlook of the next year's conference and of cause the events of next year will probably define what the conference seeks to address. Hats off and compliments to the organizers.” 034 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 上海论坛之声 VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM 035 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM (以姓氏字母为序) (in alphabetic order of last name) Edward Acton 东英吉利大学前副校长 Former Prime Minister of Pakistan “上海论坛2011”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2011 作为一所大学，我们的目标是发现新知、 传播知识。我们是在一个弘扬学术道德、致力 于公众科学的体系中坚持这么做的。 As a university, our goal is to strive to discover and disseminate knowledge, and we do so within in a framework of academic morality and a commitment to public understanding of science. Shaukat Aziz 巴基斯坦前总理 Former Prime Minister of Pakistan “上海论坛2010”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2010 中巴友谊走过了半个多世纪的不平凡路 程，它是建立在两国人民相互信任、尊重和共 同价值取向之上的。 036 The friendship between China and Pakistan has experienced an extraordinary journey throughout the past fifty years. It is built on mutual trust, respect and shared values between the two peoples. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG Carlo Carraro 政府间气候变化专门委员会第三工作小组副主席 威尼斯东方大学校长 Vice Chair of Working Group III, IPCC President of the Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia “上海论坛2012”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2012 更好地控制气候变化，需要各个利益相关 方能够就合作的态度达成共识，这可能在未来 数年里还有待进一步的努力，短期内是不一定 能够达成共识。但是我相信现在人们在进行持 续的创新的同时，人们也在慢慢进行开始更多 的合作，例如我们上海论坛就是很好的这样一 个合作的平台，进行探讨，帮助我们在气候政 策方面做出更大的进展。 Better control of climate change requires all stakeholders to come to a consensus and create a cooperative effort. This could take some years to come. However, the research we are doing in countries, our cooperative efforts, and our discussions like those coming from this Forum will help us and are very important in forging policies for climate change. 陈 健 Chen Jian 联合国前副秘书长 中国联合国协会前会长 Former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations Former President of the United Nations Association of China “上海论坛2005，2008，2010，2011，2012”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2005, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 假如上海论坛能够不仅关注上海、中国 以至亚洲如何获益于全球化，而且还能关注他 们如何为全球化贡献出自己的力量从而造福全 球，那么上海论坛就能在全球化这一进程中扮 演非常醒目的角色，并产生深远的影响。 鉴于其经济的迅猛发展，世界各国期望中 国能在全球事务中扮演更为重要的角色，即一 个负责任的国际成员国和具有引领性的全球事 务管理者。中国有能力，并且也有准备扮演这 样的一个角色。 If Shanghai Forum focuses not only on how Shanghai, China, and Asia can benefit from globalization but also on how they contribute their efforts to benefit globalization worldwide, the Forum will play a prominent role in the process of globalization and will have a profound impact. As a result of China’s rapid economic growth, the world expects it to play a greater role as a responsible member of the international community and a principal actor in global governance. China is certainly qualified and ready to play that role. 037 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM 陈新华 Chen Xinhua BP中国副总裁 中国欧盟商会能源委员会主席 Vice President for China at BP Chairman of Energy Committee, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China “上海论坛2008，2012”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2008, 2012 能源与环境安全带来的挑战需要全 The challenges brought by energy and environmental security require global cooperation, particularly the ongoing unprecedented industrialization and urbanization in Asia. Asian developing countries, including China and India, are the world's largest stakeholders of energy and environmental security. Active participation in the global energy market governance is required. The future for Asia and China lies in the fundamental transformation of development models in pursuit of life quality and well-being index. 球合作，特别是亚洲正在进行着前所未有 的工业化、城镇化和机动车化过程，包括 中国和印度在内的亚洲发展中国家是全球 能源安全与环境安全的最大利益相关者， 要积极参与全球能源市场治理。亚洲与中 国的出路在于从根本上实现发展模式的转 型，追求生活质量的增长和全社会幸福指 数的增长。 陈 元 Chen Yuan 十二届全国政协副主席 中国国家开发银行股份有限公司前党委书记、董事长 Vice Chairman, National Committee of the 12th CPPCC Former President of China's State Development Bank “上海论坛2005”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2005 改革开放以来，中国公共设施建设 取得了显著成就，但与发达国家相比， 仍处在落后阶段，这种落后主要体现在 投融资市场和体制建设方面，表现为： 公共资金投入不足；商业银行大量以居 民储蓄存款承担公共设施长期贷款，隐 藏着期限不匹配和流动性风险；资本市 场发育滞后，证券融资在公共设施融资 中的作用有限；巨额资金找不到有效的 投资渠道，还出现了流动性过剩。这些 问题制约了中国公共基础设施的发展。 038 Despite China’s remarkable achievement in public infrastructure since the Reform and Opening-up, China still falls behind developed countries in the two aspects of financing and investing in market and institution construction. The existing problems include: insufficient public investment; large amounts of residents’ saving deposit channeled into long-term loans to public infrastructure made by the commercial banks with hidden risks such as incompatibility of term structure and liquidity; underdevelopment of the capital market and limited functions of security in the financing of public infrastructure construction; and lack of effective investing channel for large capital, leading to excessive liquidity. These issues have constrained the development of China’s public infrastructure. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 陈至立 Chen Zhili 全国人大常委会前副委员长 全国妇联前主席 Former Vice Chairman of the NPC Former President of All-China Women’s Federation “上海论坛2008”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2008 亚洲各国应当增进政治互信，深化经济 合作，共同应对挑战，加强人文交流，坚持开 放政策。中国愿同其他亚洲国家一道，抓住机 遇，应对挑战，共同建设和平、发展、合作、 开放的亚洲。 Asian countries should enhance mutual political trust, deepen economic cooperation, cope with challenges jointly, strengthen cultural exchanges, and adhere to an open-door policy. China is ready to work together with other Asian countries, seize opportunities, meet challenges, and build peace, development, and cooperation in Asia. 成思危 Cheng Siwei 全国人民代表大会常务委员会前副委员长 Former Vice Chairman, the Standing Committee of the NPC, China “上海论坛2008”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2008 中国经济维持8%左右的年增长速度，可以 持续一段比较长的时间。但我们依然面临着收入 差距的增大，二元经济结构，资源和环境的压力 以及缺乏金融和广泛的专业人才的问题。另外， 美国经济的放缓，必然会对中国经济产生影响。 为了防止经济从偏快走向过热，防止物价的逐步 上涨和流动性过剩导致通货膨胀，中国应该实行 从紧的货币政策，对投资项目有区别对待，掌握 节奏，并严格控制热钱的流入。 The Chinese economy’s annual growth rate of 8% could continue for a relatively long period of time. However, we cannot ignore the problems we are facing: the widening income gap, the dual economic structure of China, the pressure we encounter in terms of resources and the environment, and the lack of financial talents and professionals. Additionally, the economic slowdown of the United States will inevitably have an impact on China's economy. In order to prevent the economy from rapid overheating, escalating price inflation, and excess liquidity, China should implement a tight monetary policy to distinguish investment projects, control the rhythm, and strictly control the inflow of hot money. 039 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM 郑海泉 Vincent H. C. Cheng 汇丰银行亚太区前主席 Former President of Asia-Pacific Region for HSBC Group “上海论坛2005”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2005 汇率、利率、金融改革是紧密结合 在一起的。没有一个完善的金融体系， 汇率改革要更加小心。作为投资者，我 们希望看到汇率有一个平稳的上升过 程。 内地和境外的经济关系越来越密 切，在国际经济里面扮演更重要的角 色。在这一大趋势下，内地的银行完成 上市和改革以后，一定会向境外进军并 设立网点。中国内地的金融 机构正在慢 慢成为国际金融机构的竞争对手，现在 还不是，但将来一定是。 Exchange rate, interest rate, and financial reform are tightly tied together. Without a comprehensive finance system, reform of the exchange rate should proceed with more caution. As investors, we wish to see a steady rise of the exchange rate. There has been an increasingly close interaction between Mainland China and overseas economies, and China is playing an important role in the global economy. Within this context, banks in Mainland China will certainly advance to and set up networks in overseas markets after they have finished their enlisting process and reform. The mainland financial institutions are growing as competitors for international financial institutions. They are no match yet, but will surely become stronger in the future. 崔再源 Jae-Won Chey SK株式会社副会长兼首席执行官 Vice-chairman and CEO, SK Holdings, Korea “上海论坛2009，2010，2011”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2009, 2010, 2011 上海论坛对世界的真正价值也许并不在于 它能带来解决方案，而在于它能够激发我们的合 作精神。上海论坛将在合作的道路上闪耀光芒。 040 The real value of Shanghai Forum may not lie in finding the solution to problems, but in inspiring our spirit of cooperation. Shanghai Forum will illumine our path to cooperation. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 崔泰源 Tae-Won Chey 韩国SK集团董事长兼首席执行官 Chairman and CEO of the Board, SK Group, Korea “上海论坛2005，2007，2008，2009，2012”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012 与中国的迅猛发展一道, 中韩双边经 贸往来也取得了明显增长。目前，韩国是 中国的第三大贸易伙伴而中国则是韩国最 大贸易伙伴。这一区域内贸易无疑还会继 续增长，我非常坚信为创建一个富有生机 活力的东亚经济体，中韩两国会做出积极 的贡献。 Paralleling China’s remarkable growth, Sino-Korean bilateral economic trade has grown substantially. Korea now ranks as China’s third largest trading partner and China stands as the largest trading partner of Korea. Intra-regional trade will no doubt continue to grow, and I’m confident that our two nations will greatly contribute to creating a dynamic East Asian economy. 蔡冠深 Jonathan Choi Koon Shum 香港新华集团主席 Chairman and President of the Hong Kong-based Sun Wah Group “上海论坛2009”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2009 上海与香港作为中国的重要金融中 心，在国际货币改革过程中可以分别担当 境内和境外人民币结算中心的功能，共同 推动人民币国际化战略进程。上海与香港 之间的关系将会越来越密切，优势互补， 共同为中国的发展做出更大的贡献。 As financial centers of the country, both Shanghai and Hong Kong can act as RMB settlement centers within and outside Mainland China respectively, pushing the RMB to fulfill the national strategy of going global in the international monetary reform. The relationship between Shanghai and Hong Kong will become increasingly closer. They will complement each other and make greater contributions to the development of China. 041 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM 朱文青 Victoria Chu Pao 美国普氏集团前总裁 Former President of Platts, U.S. “上海论坛2008”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2008 能源价格的推动因素包括美元贬值， 亚洲需求增长，地缘政治导致能源供应不足 以及金融市场投机活动。但需求会是价格的 最主要的决定因素。中国要有一个战略性的 视角，重视对未来能源需求的管理和政府及 主要消费行业的合作。为了实现降低实际的 能源使用水平，提高能耗以及改变燃料依赖 的组合的目标，中国应在人才供应，资本投 入，信息透明度等方面做更多的努力。 Energy prices are driven by factors such as depreciation of the dollar, Asian demand growth, insufficient energy supplies led by geopolitical reasons, and financial market speculation. But demand is the main determinant of price. China has a strategic perspective, focusing on the management of future energy demand and the cooperation between governments and major consumer sectors. In order to lower actual energy use, improve fuel consumption, and change the reliance on fuel, China should make more effort on training talents, capital investment, and transparency of information. 郑云灿 Un-Chan Chung 韩国前总理 Former Prime Minister, Republic of Korea “上海论坛2005”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2005 认清一国经济在全球化形势中的国际地位 尤为重要。当前促进一国经济发展的一个有效 手段是尽快将以投资为基础的经济发展战略转 变为以创新为基础的经济发展战略，大力革新 制度，尤其是针对政府本身与金融机构的制度 改革与完善。 042 It is critical to recognize the international status of a country's economy in a globalized world. Currently, an effective means of promoting a country's economy is to substitute an innovation-based economic development strategy for an investmentbased one and vigorously promote institutional innovations, especially those of government and financial institutions. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 丁文嘉 Vishakha N. Desai 美国亚洲协会名誉会长 President Emeritus of Asia Society, U.S. “上海论坛2007，2011”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2007, 2011 现在最重要的一个问题就是我们到底如何 以史为鉴，来建立一些政治方面的联系，来处理 一些经济方面的问题。让我们共同来分享一些共 同的价值观，我认为这正是一个适当 的时候， 那就是我们在领导方面制定和采取一些新的决策 和措施。我们必须加强这样一种概念：我们要超 越历史，要摆脱历史对我们的完全束缚。 Indeed, in order for the region to succeed, some of the political issues will have to be addressed, and how we do that is going to be a crucial part of where we go from here. Even without addressing political issues, we can also come back to mutual trust and shared values. Both leadership in the region and leadership in the United States can foster this idea of transcending history, not only learning from history but also going beyond it. 樊 纲 Fan Gang 中国经济体制改革研究基金会国民经济研究所所长 Director, National Economic Research Institute, Research Foundation of China's Economic Reform “上海论坛2011”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2011 经济学上有个术语叫“被压 抑的通胀”，价格被压住太久以 后再调，会一下子弹得非常高， 对通胀的压力会更大，所以早调 永远比晚调好。只要我们控制住 货币总量，把导致通胀的基本供 求关系控制好，CPI 还是有可能 稳定住。 The economic terminology ‘the repressed inflation’ illustrates the fact that the price level, after being repressed at a low level for a long time, may result in an impressive rebound and thus put more pressure on inflation. Therefore, it is always better to take early action against inflation than to wait and see. As long as monetary aggregates are under control and the fundamental supply-demand relations that may lead to inflation are properly managed, it is possible to maintain a steady Consumer Price Index (CPI). 043 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM 樊勇明 Fan Yongming 复旦大学金砖国家研究中心主任 复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院教授 Director, Center for BRICS Studies, Fudan University Professor, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University “上海论坛2013”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2013 我们在讲到金砖国家之间的合作 时，不能忽视金砖国家内部之间的许多 矛盾，包括政治结构、经济发展水平、 宗教文化、领土纠纷等。但我认为，基 于金砖国家的共同需求和长远利益，我 们必须朝着合作和发展的方向前进，这 样金砖国家在亚洲的合作以及亚洲的多 元发展中将会发挥越来越重要的作用。 When we talk about cooperation among BRICS countries, we cannot be indifferent to or ignore the fact that there exist many contradictions and disputes, with topics including political structure, economic development level, religious culture, and even territorial disputes. But I think, based on common needs and long-term interests, BRICS countries must walk towards cooperation and development. Under such circumstances, BRICS countries will play a more and more important role in Asian cooperation and the diversified development of Asia. 方 军 Fang Jun 中国教育部国际合作与交流司副司长 Deputy Director General of Department of International Cooperation and Exchange, Ministry of Education, China “上海论坛2014”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2014 当今世界在经济全球化深入发展的同时， 也面临一系列复杂多变的问题和挑战。要解决 这些问题，战胜这些挑战，需要国家之间、人 民之间彼此尊重，密切互动交流，合作共赢， 形成命运共同体。大学必须顺势而为，在应对 全球共同挑战，塑造国际未来关系，推动人类 社会发展的进程中承担起更大的责任，发挥更 大的作用。 044 The world is facing a series of problems and challenges with the deepening of globalization. In order to solve these problems and overcome the challenges, we need mutual respect and close cooperation between all the countries and the people. Universities must play a greater role in shaping international relations in the future and assume the responsibility of promoting the development of society. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 方星海 Fang Xinghai 中央财经领导小组办公室高级官员 上海市金融服务办公室主任 Senior Official, Central Group of Financial and Economic Affairs, China Director, Shanghai Municipal Office of Financial Services “上海论坛2013”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2013 虽然中国这个国家问题很多，但是我们机 会更多。只要我们把风险想透，把处理风险的 措施想清楚，做好安排，我们就可以大踏步地 推进改革开放，促进发展，然后在发展中处理 这些风险，那我们的经济就会上一个新的很大 的台阶。 There are many problems in China, but we have even more opportunities. As long as we have a thorough understanding of the risks and take clear measures to deal with these risks, we can stride forward to promote reform and openingup, stimulating economic development, and dealing with these risks in development so that our economy will step into a new stage. Michael Grubb 英国伦敦大学学院国际能源与气候变化政策教授 《气候政策》杂志主编 Professor of International Energy and Climate Change Policy, University College London Editor-in-Chief, Climate Policy Journal “上海论坛2014”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2014 我们现在正在应对资源消耗所带来 的后果。我们必须做在高碳和低碳排放 中做出选择，我们要高成本低污染还是 低成本高污染的经济。这个选择是战略 性的，而且很可能是亚洲经济面临的关 键性战略选择。 We are now dealing with the consequences of exertion of resources. We have to deal with the structural choice of whether we want higher or lower carbon emissions. Will we choose higher capital costs but lower pollution, or will we chose lower capital costs but higher pollution? This is a strategic choice and a key strategic choice that is facing most Asian economies. 045 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM 韩升洙 Han Seung-soo 韩国前总理 Former Prime Minister, Republic of Korea “上海论坛2014”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2014 我们未来所需要的不仅是一条经济增长 的道路，更是一条绿色、洁净的道路。我们要 的是社会包容性的增长，没有这样的转型和技 术，没有这样一种清洁和包容的增长，我们的 未来将是不可持续的。 What we need in the future is not just a fast growth but also a fast clean growth. We want a socially inclusive growth. Without transformation and new technology, clean and inclusive growth would not be obtainable. 韩 正 Han Zheng 中央政治局委员 中共上海市委书记 Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee Party Secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Government “上海论坛2005，2007，2008，2009，2012”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012 上海论坛所确定的题目和一些主题，都是 理论界、学术界以及社会各界广泛关注的一些 问题。这不仅是一种思想交流，更是一种智慧 的碰撞，充分体现了复旦大学弘扬学术、关注 现实，服务社会的优良传统。 046 I was very happy to have the opportunity to attend such a forum, and I’m especially interested in the general themes because they highlight the widelyconcerned issues among people of all circles. The Forum not only represents the exchange of ideas and wisdom but also demonstrates the splendid tradition of Fudan University in promoting learning and serving the society. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 郝 平 Hao Ping 中国教育部副部长 中国联合国教科文组织全国委员会主任 联合国教科文组织第37届大会主席 Vice Minister of Education, China Chairman of the National Commission of the PRC for UNESCO President of UNESCO's 37th General Conference “上海论坛2009，2010，2012”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2009, 2010, 2012 当前，我国正面临金融危机的严重影响， 这对大学也是一次严峻的挑战。大学应当挺身 而出，积极主动发挥智囊团的作用，为共同度 过金融危机这一难关出谋划策，提供强有力的 智力支持。 Currently China is suffering the grave impacts of the financial crisis, which also poses serious challenges to universities. Universities should stand out, relying on their think tanks to provide powerful intellectual support and advice on how to pull through the crisis. 本田靖 Yasushi Honda 日本筑波大学教授 2007年诺贝尔和平奖获奖小组成员之一 Professor of University of Tsukuba, Japan Member of Nobel Peace Prize Winners in 2007 “上海论坛2009”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2009 应对气候变化有两种方法，其一是控制， 其二是适应。控制是指减少温室气体排放；适 应是指减少气候变化带来的影响。 There are two ways to address climate change: control or adapt. To control is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; to adapt is to reduce the impact of climate change. 047 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM 华 民 Hua Min 复旦大学世界经济研究所所长 Director of the World Economy Institute, Fudan University “上海论坛2010”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2010 人民币升值非但解决不了中国内外经济失 衡问题，反而会对中国经济长远健康发展产生 负面影响。中国的应对措施应该是不选择人民 币升值，相反，要进一步推进贸易自由化，以 增进国民经济福利。 The appreciation of RMB won't solve the problem of the unbalance of the Chinese economy home and abroad. It will on the other hand inflict a negative impact on its strategic development. Therefore, instead of the currency appreciation, China should further push the trade liberalization to promote the healthy growth of national ecomomy and welfare. Reuben Jeffery Ⅲ 美国前副国务卿 Former U.S. Under-Secretary of State “上海论坛2009”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2009 美国致力于将中国充分纳入国 际经济贸易体系，会继续与中国政 府合作，大力支持中国融入全球贸 易体系，尤其是加大对知识产权的 保护等措施，并鼓励中国继续完善 更加灵活的、基于市场的货币兑换 体系；美国大力支持中国融入全球 金融治理机构并承担相应责任。中 国与美国“要照看好我们共同的花 园”，耐心、关注小事，鼓励多边 组织的发展，改变经济一体化和发 展的进程。 048 The United States is committed to the full integration of China into the international economic trading system. The United States government will continue to work with Chinese leadership and strongly supports China’s integration into the international trading system, including the strengthening of the protection of intellectual property rights, and will encourage China to continue to move towards a more flexible, marketbased currency exchange system. The United States strongly supports China’s integration into global financial governance bodies, which comes with an increased responsibility. China and the United States should tend to the shared garden, be patient, pay attention to little things, encourage and facilitate the move to multilateralism, and change the process of economic integration and development. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 简大年 Jian Danian 上海市浦东新区副区长 中国（上海）自由贸易试验区管委会副主任 Vice Mayor of Pudong New Area Vice Chairman of China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone Administration “上海论坛2014”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2014 我认为制度创新的核心和要害有两 条：第一，通过负面清单管理模式等国 际通行规则的推出，要在自贸区对于高 标准的投资贸易规则形成一个很好的试 验结果，这是我们的首要任务； 第二， 通过高标准的投资贸易规则的制定，政 府职能的转变和管理方式的创新，实现 政府的改革。这个政府改革的要害就是 让政府从原来重审批环节过渡到今后政 府重监管环节，这是整个自贸区制度创 新的重要元素。 I would like to mention two crucial points in the innovation system of the Free Trade Zone: First, with the introduction of the international rules such as the negative list, our top priority is to form a high standard of investment and trade rules in the Free Trade Zones with satisfactory results; Second, the government transformation can be realized through the formation of a high standard for investment and trade rules, the change of government function, and the innovation of administration. The most important thing is to transfer the focus from approvals to supervision, which is also the main element of the innovation system in the Free Trade Zones. 小手川大助 Daisuke Kotegawa 国际货币基金组织日本区前执行主任 Former Executive Director for Japan at the IMF “上海论坛2009”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2009 这次经济危机席卷全球的时候，需要有一 个像日本在当年扮演过的火车头角色，大家都 把希望寄托在中国身上；中国经济受到全球的 影响，也存在资产泡沫现象；中国要承担这样 的责任，来支撑全球经济、防止经济崩溃。 When the economic crisis sweeps around the world, there must be a country like Japan, which took the role of the engine. China was the hope; under the global impact, there are asset bubbles in China's economy as well; China needs to take responsibility to support the global economy and prevent economic collapse. 049 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM 刘遵义 Lawrence J. Lau 中国香港中文大学前校长 中投国际(香港)有限公司董事长 Former President of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, China CEO of CIC International, Hong Kong “上海论坛2008，2010，2011”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2008, 2010, 2011 亚洲经济重心正在发生巨大改 变，中国及整个东亚的经济发展迅 速，各经济体间都产生了供求需要。 应当怎样来调整汇率呢？东亚各国间 应当有协调的行动，保证各方利益都 不受损。关于东亚资本市场的整合， 可以建立一个联合的证券市场，并发 展以当地货币为主的债券市场，同时 要采取防通货膨胀的措施。为了更好 的监管，东亚政府应要求金融市场更 大的透明度和信息披露。 Asia’s economic center of gravity has undergone tremendous changes. China and all of East Asia boast rapid economic development, and supply and demand needs have been generated between economies. How should we adjust the exchange rate to reflect this? East Asian countries should perform coordinated actions to ensure that the interests of all parties are not impaired. The integrated capital markets in East Asia should establish a joint stock market to develop the local currency-based bond market. Meanwhile, measures should be taken to prevent inflation. In order to better regulate, the government in East Asian should require greater transparency and information disclosure in financial markets. 李光耀 Lee Kuan Yew 新加坡前总理，前内阁资政 Former Premier and Minister Mentor of Singapore “上海论坛2005”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2005 中国经济腾飞将对世界经济带来深远的影 响。新加坡必须培养更多兼通双语、双文化，以 及掌握中国脉动的人才，以加强同中国的联系。 050 The booming Chinese economy will exert intensive and extensive influence on the world’s economy. Singapore must foster bilingual, bicultural talents who know China’s pulse in order to strengthen ties with China. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 林尚立 Lin Shangli 复旦大学副校长 上海论坛组织委员会常务副主任 Vice President, Fudan University Executive Vice Chair, Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee “上海论坛2011，2012，2013，2014”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 我们希望上海论坛能够不仅有学术的价 值，更有战略的价值，能够直接贡献于政府的决 策，区域的合作以及世界思想和制度的建构，为 现实发展提供真正的智力支持，这样的论坛才会 有生命力。 We hope that Shanghai Forum has not only academic but also strategic significance, contributing to the policy making, regional cooperation and institutional construction of the world. Only in this way, can the Forum gain a continuous vitality. 刘明康 Liu Mingkang 十一届政协经济委员会副主任 中国银监会前主席 Deputy Director of the Economic Commission of the 11th CPPCC National Committee Former President of China Banking Regulatory Commission “上海论坛2005”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2005 一个较为完善的监管体系需 要有关监管部门的通力合作，协 调配合，统一制订我国衍生产品 发展规划，修订完善衍生产品发 展的法规政策，协调监管职责， 提高应对突发事件能力。同时， 还应加强金融衍生产品市场的国 际监管与合作。 A relatively sophisticated system of supervision requires unreserved cooperation and coordination from all relevant supervisory functioning parts to draft a plan for China’s development of derivative products, to revise and set regulations and policies governing the development of derivative products, and to coordinate the supervisory responsibilities and enhance the abilities of tackling emergencies. Meanwhile, international cooperation and supervision of derivative products in financial markets should also be strengthened. 051 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM 龙永图 Long Yongtu 博鳌亚洲论坛国际咨询委员会委员 中国外经贸部前副部长 Member of the Council of Advisors, Boao Forum for Asia Former Vice Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, China “上海论坛2012”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2012 我认为经济结构调整是亚洲未来十年战略 的核心，也是中国未来十年发展战略的核心。 而最核心的转变就是经济增长目标的转变—— 如何从一个以增长为主要目标的经济转向一个 以人的发展为主要目标的经济，这是中国经济 结构调整中最值得关切的问题。 I think economic restructuring is at the very core of Asia’s strategies for the next decade. It is also at the core of China’s strategy for the next decade. However, the key difference, in my opinion, is the change of target from economic growth to human development, which constitutes the central concern of China’s economic restructuring. 吕安迪 Andreas Löschel 德国国家能源转型专家咨询委员会主席 欧洲经济研究中心(ZEW)环境与资源经济及环境管理所所长、教授 海德堡大学经济学教授 Chairman, Commission of Experts for Monitoring Energy Transformation, German General Government Professor and Head of Department, Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Professor of Economics, University of Heidelberg “上海论坛2013”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2013 如果中国需要推进能源转型，最好采用关 税政策，要达到更好的效果的话还应该制定经 济可行、灵活弹性的方案来应对将来的状况， 否则就可能就因为成本过高而难以实行。我相 信中德合作将使我们两国获益，我非常期待在 将来进一步推进两国间的合作。 052 For China to push energy transformation, it’s better to introduce tariffs. It must make sure that the energy is economically sound, flexible, and can be trusted for the future; otherwise, it will be difficult to cope with the costs. I am convinced that the cooperation between China and Germany at the moment is mutually beneficial for both of our countries, and I am very much looking forward to promoting further cooperation in the future. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG Harvey Mansfield 哈佛大学教授 Professor of Harvard University “上海论坛2008”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2008 政治不是关于自我利益，而是关于一种生 气、一种自我价值、自我重要性的认识。这其 中关键是，谁应该更加重要？到底是哪一个党 的哪一个领导人，什么想法的人被更加看中？ 也就是说谁是最重要，而且从一个广义的角度 Politics is not about self-interest, but self-worth and self-awareness. This is the key point: who is more important? Which idea is fancier? From a broad perspective, we should feel that all people are important. 来讲，应该觉得所有的人都是重要的。 Graham Mather 世界自由贸易区协会主席 欧洲政策论坛主席 Chairman of World Free Zone Convention President of European Policy Forum “上海论坛2014”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2014 我想概括三点：一、自由贸易区 不是特权的飞地，而是试验田；二、自 由贸易区可以为整个经济体服务；三、 自由贸易区已突破旧有的功能范畴而转 变为具有了广泛意义上的经济社会作用 的园区城市，从而对国家、社会具有非 凡的影响。因此，中国（上海）自由贸 易试验区的成功势必将会是举世瞩目 的，因为它将引领今后全球自由贸易区 的发展。 I would like to outline three points: First, Free Trade Zones are not privileged enclaves; they are testing grounds. Second, Free Trade Zones can spread their benefits to the rest of our economies. Third, Free Trade Zones have moved from their narrow early functions to a concept of zone cities with a wide range of economic and social practices. And they have a very important role to play across nations and across society. Therefore, the success of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone will be watched very closely around the world, as it could herald the subsequent development of worldwide free trade zones. 053 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM Ronald I. McKinnon 斯坦福大学国际经济学 William D. Eberle 教授 William D. Eberle Professor of International Economics, Stanford University “上海论坛2010”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2010 中国和美国是两个最大的经济体。既使美 国抗议，两国也应该采取合适的固定汇率，以 遏制其他国家的货币贬值，并有利于出口。这 对两国乃至世界都是最好的选择。 China and the United States are the world's two largest economies. Despite American protests, it is best for both, and for the rest of the world, a credibly fixed exchange rate would curb devaluation of currency in other countries. If the exchange rate is fixed, it is conducive to exports. This is the best option for both countries and the world. Pauline van der Meer Mohr 鹿特丹伊拉斯谟大学校长 President of Erasmus University, Rotterdam “上海论坛2014”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2014 首先应该增强上海港内部的互通，其次是 中国各个港口之间的互通，第三要提升中国港口 和世界各主要大港的互通。政府有两种基本的手 段可以提升这种互联互通性，一种是投资，另一 种是法律法规。 054 The following are several recommendations: first of all, increasing the strategic connectivity within the port area of Shanghai, secondly within China as a whole and thirdly with international ports outside of China. A government has basically two instruments to improve global connectivity: investments and regulations. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG Michael H. Merson 杜克大学全球健康研究所所长 杜克大学全球战略与计划办公室副教务长，副校长 Director of Duke Global Health Institute Vice Provost and Vice President, Office of Global Strategy and Programs, Duke University “上海论坛2013”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2013 亚洲面临着快速扩大的非传染性疾病的流 行，这给预防和控制带来很大的挑战。亚洲各国 政府应当在多个层面进行反应，扩展具有创新性 的干预措施，并且出台适当的政策。私人领域也 应该成为预防和控制中的主要力量。 Asia faces a rapid expanding epidemic of noncommunicable disease, which presents major challenges for prevention and control. Asian governments should develop multi-level responses, develop innovative, scalable interventions, and set appropriate policies. James A. Mirrlees 1996年诺贝尔经济学奖得主 1996 Nobel Laureate in Economics “上海论坛2011”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2011 现代经济学研究的关键课题之一是如何处 理信息不对称的问题，即因不同的决策者掌握 不同的信息而导致的问题。 One of the key problems in modern economic research is how to deal with the issue of asymmetric information; that is, that different decision-makers have different information. 055 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM Robert A. Mundell 1999年诺贝尔经济学奖得主 美国哥伦比亚大学经济学教授 1999 Nobel Laureate in Economics Professor of Economics at Columbia University “上海论坛2013”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2013 我认为新的领导层应当认真考虑进一步提 高人民币的通兑性。中国理应成为国际化货币的 一员，并合成美元-欧元-人民币区域。 I think the new administration should move towards a greater consideration of making the Chinese currency more exchangeable. There's no reason why China couldn't be part of the dollarEuro-Yuan area. Supachai Panitchpakdi 联合国贸易和发展会议前秘书长 Former Secretary-General of UNCTAD “上海论坛2011”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2011 在当今的全球化经济中，一个新的全球金 融管理的多边途径对于促进一个可预见的贸易 环境是必不可少的。这也能促进各国在全球化 经济治理中实现地位平等。 056 In today´s global economy, a new multilateral approach to global financial management is essential for promoting a predictable trading environment. It also encourages countries to achieve equal status in global economic governance. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 裴 钢 Pei Gang 同济大学校长 President, Tongji University “上海论坛2008”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2008 在人类社会发展的过程中，在应对全 球性风险中，教育是最重要的。那么，大 学怎么才能应对风险挑战，并适应社会、 企业界的要求呢？人们常说一流大学培养 一流人才，如果这些一流人才不能应对全 球性的挑战，就不能说是高质量、高水平 人才。在这个方面，中国的大学有许多事 情可以做，也许会走出一条自己的路。 During the development of human societies, education plays a vital role in dealing with globalized risks. How can a university cope with the challenges and meet the requirements of a society at risk? It is often said that first-class universities cultivate firstclass talent. If first-class talent cannot cope with the global challenges they are faced with, they cannot be regarded as well-educated. In this regard, Chinese universities have a long way to go and will probably require much self-exploration. Adam Posen 彼得森国际经济研究所所长 President of Peterson Institute for International Economics “上海论坛2014”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2014 由于金融危机及其后果，包括它对投资需 求、金融抑制、风险规避、银行系统带来的影 响，可能至少在未来几年内，最富有的一些国 家的发展速度将会减缓，而我们必须考虑这将 产生怎样的影响。 In light of the financial crisis, its aftermath, and what it did to investment appetite, financial repression, risk aversion, and banking systems, it seems likely that, at least for the next few years, the pace of improvement in rich countries will slow. We must ask what the implications of this are. 057 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM Adam Przeworski 纽约大学政治学与经济学教授，卡柔-密尔敦欧洲研究教授 Professor of Politics and Economics, Carroll and Milton Petrie Professor of European Studies, New York University “上海论坛2012”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2012 我想强调的是，在每一个社会里都有冲 突，有些是收入分配导致的冲突，除此之外还有 宗教、族群、价值观的冲突等等。有时候微不足 道的问题就会导致人们大规模的抗议。冲突处理 机制并不总是有效的。在某些特定的时候，冲突 中会产生胜利者和失败者，但失败者应该学会耐 心等待。 I want to emphasize that in every society there are conflicts about all kinds of things: income distribution, religion and ethnicity, values and taste, whatever you want. Even minor issues can evoke passions. It is true that conflict-managing mechanisms don’t always work. It is also true that at certain times conflicts produce winners and losers. Losers have to be patient and wait. But I think we have learned over the centuries that we can wait. Hélène Rey 伦敦商学院经济学教授 英国社会科学院院士 Professor of Economics, London Business School Fellow of the British Academy “上海论坛2013”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2013 这次金融危机破坏非常严重，时至当前依 然如此，或许只有大萧条能与之相提并论。我们 也是第一次看到亚洲成功避免了灾难的冲击，尽 管不是毫发无伤。通常说来新兴经济体会更容易 受影响，但这次我们看到的情形却并非如此。我 相信这与亚洲的现金储备和资本增长息息相关， 我也相信按照世界经济当前的发展态势，亚洲， 尤其是中国的金融业将有很多发展机会。 058 I will say that this crisis was and still is a very serious crisis. It is second only to the Great Depression. For the first time, we saw that Asia remained relatively unscathed. Though emerging economies usually are much more vulnerable to crises, this time around we saw a different pattern. I believe this is linked to the pattern of current accounts and capital growth. Given the current trend in the current world economy, there are huge opportunities for development in the financial sector, particularly in China. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 沙祖康 Sha Zukang 联合国经济和社会事务前副秘书长 复旦大学国际问题研究院名誉院长 Former United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Honorary Dean, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University “上海论坛2014”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2014 只要亚洲国家能够实现成功的转型，并且 积极地推动可持续发展，21世纪其实仍然会是 亚洲的世纪。 If countries in the region are able to make transformative changes and pursue sustainable development, the twenty-first century will be the century of Asia 施春风 Choon Fong Shih 新加坡国立大学前校长 阿卜杜拉国王科技大学前校长 Former President, National University of Singapore Former President, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology “上海论坛2007”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2007 21世纪是一个没有明确疆域和国界的世 界，文化的发展也更加复杂和多样。只有充分吸 收外来知识和理念，实现资源共享，拥有一个跨 文化的视野，才能真正发挥大学的潜力。 The world of the twenty-first century is one without clear boundaries and borders, in which cultural development is increasingly complex and diverse. Only by absorbing foreign knowledge and ideas, sharing resources, and maintaining a cross-cultural perspective can a university reach its full potential. 059 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM Robert Shiller 耶鲁大学经济学斯特林讲座教授 2013年诺贝尔经济学奖得主 Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economics “上海论坛2014”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2014 经济学是一门很重要的、应该严肃 追求的学科。因为它在研究中包含了人 的参与。经济学问题可以从很多不同的角 度来看，也有很多种搜集证据的方式。这 会带来的问题就是人们可能对证据有所选 择，认为某些是科学的，而完全忽略那些 无法被科学方法证明的明显的事实。这是 导致金融危机中的泡沫形成的部分原因。 I think economics is more vulnerable. It’s a hard discipline to pursue methodically because the economic world is so complicated. It involves people, and there are so many different ways of looking at economies and so many different ways of collecting evidence. What sometimes happens is that people think that only certain kinds of evidence are scientific, and they throw out obvious facts as being not scientifically proven and ignore them completely. In some sense, that’s what happened in the bubble that led up to this recent financial crisis. 白井克彦 Katsuhiko Shirai 早稻田大学前校长 Former President, Waseda University “上海论坛2008”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2008 在各个国家和地区相互合作、交流 经验的基础上，政府、学界和商界也应该 携手共创一幅指向“可持续发展”这一目 标的蓝图，只有这样，“可持续发展”才 有可能实现。其中，大学的责任在于积极 地寻求与政府、商界和其他学术组织进行 合作研究的机会。 060 On the basis of mutual cooperation between various countries and regions, the government, academia, and the business community should join hands to create a blueprint of "sustainable development". This is the only way that "sustainable development" be achieved. One of the university's many responsibilities is to actively seek collaborative opportunities for research and cooperation between governments, business partners, and other academic organizations. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 庄山悦彦 Etsuhiko Shoyama 日本日立公司前会长 Former President of Hitachi, Ltd., Japan “上海论坛2005”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2005 我们所追求的可持续发展的社会必 须要确保高质量的生活，包括环境、经 济及社会等各个方面。对环境高度重视 的概念必须为整个社会所接受，不仅仅 要防止空气、水、土地 资源等环境污 染，还要注重更有效地利用能源，这样 才能使公民，企业，政府及其它社会各 界的元素共同参与到环保活动中，并且 推而广之。 The kind of sustainable society we pursue must guarantee a high quality of life in environmental, economic, and social aspects. The concept of placing priority on the environment, not only through preventing air, water and soil pollution but also by utilizing energy efficiently, must permeate society so that citizens, companies, governments, and other components of society can implement environmental protection activities. Simply put, citizens, companies and governments have no choice but to take action now rather than leave the issue to others. Michael Spence 2001年诺贝尔经济学奖得主 美国斯坦福大学胡佛研究所高级研究员 2001 Nobel Laureate in Economics Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University “上海论坛2007”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2007 每个国家对于参与涉及本国能源存 量的活动都采取谨慎对待的态度，这是 完全可以理解的，但是从经济的全球性 来看，结果未必好。全球经济真正需要 的是以价格机制作为最 重要的调解方式 来处理能源问题。只有多边合作才能做 到保护能源，并尽可能地避免风险。 There’s very careful concern for countries to engage in activities that are designed to secure their own energy future. It’s completely understandable. But it’s not a good outcome from the global point of view. What you really want, I think, is for a price mechanism to be the main mediator of things in the global economy with respect to energy. And it’s going to take multilateral cooperation to avoid the destructive aspects of this gamble for energy security. 061 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM James B. Steinberg 美国前常务副国务卿 雪城大学麦克斯韦尔学院院长 Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Dean of the Maxwell School, Syracuse University “上海论坛2012”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2012 中美必须要继续努力延续增长 和战略环境的总体稳定。我们都是 坚持以和平的角度去解决存在的问 题。我坚信，只要我们争取实现双 方的共同利益，亚太地区一定能够 实现长远的和平与繁荣。 The United States and China must continue to promote the growth and a largely stability of environment. Of course, we are joining together to solve existing problems in a peaceful way. I have succeeded in walking the fine line between an optimistic belief in the possibility of long-term peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific with the realistic warning of the risks that we may not succeed in attaining what is clearly in our common interest. 苏 宁 Su Ning 中国银联前董事长 Former Chairman of China UnionPay Co., Ltd. “上海论坛2009”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2009 金融危机以来，党中央实行稳定的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，GDP 的环比上升，经济增长出现回升的迹 象。我国金融业仍然保持健康稳定的运 行态势，银行体系流动性充足，金融机 构稳健。中国应发挥金融稳健运行的优 势，优化资源配置，重视金融创新，完 善风险管理机制。 062 Positive signs have emerged for the national economy, and have proven to be better than expected, especially shown in the increase of the gross domestic product (GDP). In the wake of the international financial crisis, however, the Chinese financial market has remained healthy. The banking system has sufficient liquidity, and the financial institutions remain lively. China will assure a loose monetary supply, optimize resource allocation to improve credit quality, push through financial innovation, and strengthen risk management for a stable market. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 唐家璇 Tang Jiaxuan 中国前国务委员 中国外交部前部长 Former State-Councilor of China Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of China “上海论坛2010”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2010 中国走和平发展道路，就是走建设 中国特色社会主义的道路，利用和平的国 际环境发展自己，同时又以自身发展更好 地维护和促进世界和平与共同发展；在积 极参与经济全球 化和区域合作的同时， 主要依靠自身力量和改革创新来实现全面 协调、可持续的发展；坚持扩大对外开 放，积极发展同世界各国的合作，实现互 利双赢或共赢；永远做维护世界和 平和 促进共同发展的坚定力量。 The peaceful development of China must build socialism with Chinese characteristics and utilize the peaceful international environment. In the meantime, our own development can safeguard and promote world peace and common development. While participating in economic globalization and regional cooperation, we will achieve comprehensive, coordinated, and sustainable development by our own strength through reform and innovation. Our policy includes adhering to open-door policy, actively developing cooperation with countries in the world to achieve mutual benefit or winwin situation, continuously safeguarding world peace, and promoting common prosperity. 屠光绍 Tu Guangshao 上海市副市长 Executive Vice Mayor of Shanghai “上海论坛2014”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2014 上海下一步的经济发展依然面临着很大的 挑战，保持上海经济的平稳可持续发展任务依 然艰巨，寻找新的动力势在必行，而这个动力 必将肇始于深化改革、扩大开放、加快创新， 必须从深化改革当中要动力，要从扩大开放当 中要资源，要从创新当中要能量。 Shanghai’s economic development is still faced with great challenges. It is imperative to explore new dynamics in order to maintain the stable and sustainable development of Shanghai’s economy. We must seek impetus by deepening reform, integrate resources by expanding opening up, and gain energy by accelerating innovation. 063 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM Jan Uddenfeldt 索尼爱立信首席技术官 CTO, Sony Ericsson “上海论坛2005”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2005 3G已经成为一个成熟的技术，对中国也是 如此。我们都已经看到3G的发展，现有的技术 可以很快投入市场使用，中国确实应该抓住这个 机会。 3G has become a mature technology, which is the same case for China. We have all seen the development of 3G. The current technology can be applied to market quickly. China should seize this opportunity. Paul A. Volcker 美联储前主席 美国总统经济复苏顾问委员会前主席 Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Former Chairman of the Economic Recovery Advisory Board, U.S. “上海论坛2012”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2012 中国和上海的繁荣和发展，将越 来越取决于与其他国家和地区的和谐关 系。我希望美国能够解决我们的一些重 要的政治问题，承担责任来寻求和谐的 世界货币关系和贸易关系，推动解决环 境、医疗、人口老龄化等问题的相关政 策。而这需要各国之间的合作。 064 I am sure that the prosperity of China and Shanghai is going to depend even more on close and harmonious relationships with the rest of the world. I hope that the U.S. can solve our important political problems and assume responsibility to reach out and seek harmonious relations between currency and trade relations, policies towards the environment, health, and the aging population; this requires cooperation among nations. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 王家瑞 Wang Jiarui 中共十八届中央委员 十二届全国政协副主席 中共中央对外联络部部长 Member of the 18th Central Committee of the CPC Vice Chairman, National Committee of the 12th CPPCC Director of the International Liaison Department of the CPC Central Committee, China “上海论坛2005”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2005 无论对亚洲还是整个世界而言，经济 To Asia and the world alike, the economic globalization should not be polarized, but be of shared prosperity and enhanced balance. The gap between the rich and the poor is widening in the global landscape, and fortunes are increasingly going into those limited countries, which is not good for the world’s peace, stability, and long-term development. We call for developed countries to abide by their duties and responsibilities and to further open their markets to developing countries while providing monetary and technical support. For that purpose, Asian countries should make concerted efforts to contribute to the reform of national financial systems, the optimization of international trade rules, and the establishment of a fair and reasonable new international economic order. 全球化都不应是两极分化的全球化，而应 是共同繁荣、更加均衡的全球化。全球范 围内贫富差距不断扩大，财富越来越集中 于少数国家， 不利于整个世界的和平、稳 定及长远发展。我们呼吁发达国家履行其 责任和义务，进一步向发展中国家开放市 场，提供资金和技术支持。为此，亚洲国 家应该团结合作，为改革国 家金融体系， 完善国际贸易规则，建立公正合理的国际 经济新秩序，贡献自己应有的力量。 翁铁慧 Weng Tiehui 上海市副市长 Vice Mayor of Shanghai “上海论坛2014”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2014 上海将坚持不懈地推进创新驱 动、转型发展。努力把改革的红利、 内需的潜力、创新的活力叠加起来， 形成发展的新动力。着力打造助梦、 追梦和圆梦的机遇之城、繁荣之城， 努力当好中国改革开放的排头兵和科 学发展的先行者。 Shanghai will make unremitting efforts to promote innovation, transformation, and development in accordance with the overall arrangements of the central government. The city will seek new impetus for development with dividends of the reform, potential domestic demand, and innovation vitality. We are making efforts to build Shanghai a city of opportunities and prosperity. We will do our best to lead in scientific development and be the forerunners of the vanguard of China’s reform and opening up. 065 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM 胡永泰 Wing Thye Woo 美国布鲁金斯学会高级研究员 美国加州大学戴维斯分校经济系教授 Senior Fellow of Brookings Institution Professor of Economics, U.C. Davis “上海论坛2010，2012，2014”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2010, 2012, 2014 当前主要经济体必须尽快实施同步财政扩 张，这比单一国家推出财政刺激的效果会好很多。 At present, the major economies must adopt synchronized fiscal expansion policies, which will lead to better results than a single country’s fiscal stimulus. Mark Stephen Wrighton 美国圣路易斯华盛顿大学校长 Chancellor, Washington University in St. Louis “上海论坛2010，2011”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2010, 2011 人口增长与人口老龄化是当今社会面临的 重大问题，它关系到社会福利、资本分配和社 会劳动力等一系列问题。 066 Population growth and population aging are the major issues facing contemporary society. They are related to social welfare, capital allocation, social labor, and other issues. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 吴敬琏 Wu Jinglian 中国国务院发展研究中心研究员 Senior Research Fellow at the Development Research Centre of the State Council, China “上海论坛2008”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2008 中国过去由要素投入和出口需求驱 动的经济增长导致劳动力开始短缺，人 民币的升值压力出现。中国亟需经济增 长模式的转型，主要途径包括：农村的 劳动力向城市的非农产业转移，科学技 术的广泛应用，独立服务业的发展，信 息化带动工业化。主要的问题在于体制 上的障碍，其关键在于推进改革，充分 发挥市场在资源配置中的基础性作用。 The Chinese economy was driven by an input of resources, an exportation-caused labor shortage, and the appreciation of RMB. China needs to realize the transformation of its economic development pattern by adopting four approaches, namely the transfer the labor force from a low-efficiency sector to a high-efficiency sector, the wide application of scientific studies, the independent development of the service industry, and finally the upgrade of the industrial sector. The root of the problem is institutional obstacles. We should advance reform and remove the institutional obstacles so that the market can fully play its fundamental role in the allocation of resources. 吴启迪 Wu Qidi 中国教育部前副部长 Former Vice Minister of Education, China “上海论坛2005”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2005 随着经济的全球化，生产资料越来越多地 在全球范围内被重新整合，总体上第二产业正 呈现出从发达国家向发展中国家转移的发展态 势。金融、保险、信用服务等第三产业发 展迅 速，对就业者的吸引力倍增。 With economic globalization, productive resources are increasingly redistributed on a global scale. Generally speaking, secondary industries tend to shift from developed countries to developing countries. Finance, insurance, credit services, and other tertiary industries have developed rapidly, and the attractiveness of employment within the sector has multiplied 067 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM 吴志攀 Wu Zhipan 北京大学常务副校长 Executive Vice President, Peking University “上海论坛2011，2012”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2011, 2012 过去有的人曾经认为，我们与美 国证券市场之间的差别，无论从复杂 程度和多样化，还是从市场规模和开 放程度来看，都好比婴儿与成年人之 间的差距。没有“东西之分”，只有 ‘古今之别’。但是，今天我们大约 不应该再这样想了，我们的路，不可 能完全复制美国，美国人摔了这么大 的跟头，我们难道还要亦步亦趋？我 们的国情不同，传统不同，未来的模 式也应该不同。 People used to believe that the difference between the American and the Chinese stock market, which was based either on the extent of complexity and diversity or on the scale of market and maturity, could be compared to the differences between an infant and an adult. It is not a question of differences between the East and West, but rather the differences between ancient and modern. Nevertheless, we now believe in this saying no longer applicable. We cannot completely copy our American counterparts. They were trapped in such a huge crisis. Are we going to follow their steps? The United States is very different from China. We have different traditions. Therefore, we shall pursue a different pattern of development. 项俊波 Xiang Junbo 中国保险监督管理委员会主席 Chairman of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission “上海论坛2009”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2009 这次金融危机对实体经济的杀伤力 很强。在应对金融危机方面，应该继续坚 持保增长、扩内需、调结构的政策方向。 同时，要提前谋划后危机时代的发展路 径。在财政政策方面，要把政策着力点放 在如何带动民间投资方面。在货币政策 上，要根据实体经济需要，及时增加信贷 投放，增强信心，并保持汇率稳定，营造 良好的外部环境。长期来看，还要深化改 革，促进经济结构的调整和优化。四大国 有商业银行遭受的直接影响比较少，保持 了健康的发展态势，这主要得益于近年来 实施的股份制改革。 068 The harmful effects of the current financial crisis on the real economy are very lethal. In response to the financial crisis, China should continue to maintain growth, expand domestic demand, and readjust the structure of policy. Meanwhile, we must plan the development in post-crisis era in advance. In terms of fiscal policy, the policy should focus on how to boost private investment. In terms of monetary policy, according to the real economy, the policy should increase additional credit, boost confidence, and maintain exchange rate stability to create a favorable external environment. In the long term, we should also deepen reform and promote economic restructuring and optimization. Four stateowned commercial banks suffered small direct impacts and maintained healthy development momentums, which was mainly due to the implementation of the shareholding system reform in recent years. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 徐匡迪 Xu Kuangdi 中国工业经济联合会名誉会长 中国工程院前院长 Honorary President of China Federation of Industrial Economics Former President of Chinese Academy of Engineering “上海论坛2005”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2005 中国要建设节约型社会，要把这当成是别 China has to build a conservation-oriented society. This is not only because China is facing severe resource and environmental challenges, but also because of China’s commitment to future generations and to humankind. 无选择的事。这不仅仅是因为中国面临着严峻 的资源和环境问题，而且也是为了我们对于子 孙后代，乃至全人类的事业。 袁志刚 Yuan Zhigang 复旦大学就业与社会保障研究中心主任 Director of the Employment and Social Security Research Center, Fudan University “上海论坛2012”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2012 如果我们的金融市场和资本市场能够保 护小股东的利益，那中国的金融就一定是健康 的。金融的主要目的是什么？它一定要为实体 经济服务，一定要为产业结构升级服务，一定 要为风险投资服务，一定要跟青年劳动力资源 结合在一起，依靠来自实体经济的利润回报， 而不是泡沫炒作，不是利益集团在里面掌控。 所以要素市场的改革，金融市场的改革，对于 中国来说实在是太重要了。 If Chinese financial market and capital market can protect the interest of small shareholders,the sound development of Chinese finance is ensured. What is the main objective of finance? It is to serve real economy, industrial structure upgrading, and risk investment. It must combine with young labor resources. It should rely on returns on real economy rather than on over-hyping bubbles and manipulations by interest groups. Therefore, reforms in factor market and financial market are crucially important to China. 069 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM 张 杰 Zhang Jie 上海交通大学校长 President, Shanghai Jiao Tong University “上海论坛2007”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2007 一所大学的传统特色是在大学发展过程当 中逐渐形成的。不是说一所大学从某一个时间开 始，就什么东西都不能改变了，而是需要不断进 步、随着时代的发展而不断变革，继续为这所大 学的文化传统作贡献。 The traditional characteristics of a university are gradually formed during its development process. It is not true that universities are immutable; rather, they must innovate and improve along with social development, continuously contributing to the institution's cultural tradition. 张 军 Zhang Jun 复旦大学经济学院院长 Dean, School of Economics, Fudan University “上海论坛2011，2014”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2011, 2014 我认为中国需要更多的资本投入，这是唯 一可以让中国经济不断地接近美国经济总量的方 式，而且也是唯一可以让我们在不断地提高投资 的基础上提高劳动生产率的方式。 070 We still need more investment. We need to improve infrastructure in mid and western part of China, and also we need to invest to improve the productivity of labor in service and agricultural sectors. Only in this way can we catch up with the US by increasing productivity and investment at the same time. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 章晟曼 Zhang Shengman 花旗银行亚太区前主席 世界银行前副行长 Former Chairman of Citi's Asia Pacific Region Former Vice President of World Bank “上海论坛2005，2012”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2005, 2012 如果中国经济能够继续维持其发展势头， 而上海也能继续在开放和创新中加强竞争力优 势，那么随着时间的推移，上海将成为中国的首 个世界级城市。 If the Chinese economy can sustain its economic success, and if Shanghai is able to continue to build upon its many competitive advantages through the consistent pursuit of openness and innovation, then over time, Shanghai could well become China’s first global city. 章新胜 Zhang Xinsheng 中国教育部前副部长 Former Vice Minister of Education, China “上海论坛2007”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum2007 人们越来越认识到，随着全球化 进程的加速，如果没有区域化和次区域 化的进程作为基础来加以推进，由于处 于这个区域的某一个国家、某一个城市 它的竞争力是有限的，那么它的可持续 发展也是值得提出疑问的。 复旦大学希望通过十年的时间打 造一个上海论坛的平台，这不仅得到教 育部，也得到上海市政府和中国各方面 的支持。 Under the background of rapid globalization, people are gradually realizing that if efforts to build a combined regional and sub-regional foundation for development are insufficient, sustainable development will be very difficult to achieve due to the limited competitiveness of a single country or city in this region. Shanghai Forum, created by Fudan University, is a platform for such collaboration. This project has been achieved with the support of the Ministry of Education, Shanghai’s Municipal Government, and the Chinese people. 071 上海论坛之声 ｜ VOICE OF SHANGHAI FORUM 朱 民 Zhu Min 国际货币基金组织副总裁 Deputy Managing Director, IMF “上海论坛2007，2012”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2007, 2012 在过去四十年里，中国的金融和服务业都 得到了巨大的增长和变化，整个世界都在巨变。 发达国家、泛亚国家和石油国家三大主要集群是 互通互联的，而泛亚地区一体化的供应链还在不 断增长和扩展。在制造业的结构调整和服务业的 扩展方面，还有无限的机会。 Over the past forty years, we have seen dramatic growth in financial sectors, services, and changes. The world has really changed. We are interconnected between the three major clusters of the advanced economies, the panAsian group and the oil cluster, with the pan-Asian vertically-integrated supply chains still growing, still expanding. There are endless opportunities for manufacturing restructuring and service sector expansion. Robert B. Zoellick 高盛集团国际顾问委员会主席 世界银行前行长 美国前贸易代表 美国前常务副国务卿 Chairman of Glodman Sachs International Advisors Former President of World Bank Group Former U.S. Trade Representative Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State “上海论坛2013”嘉宾 Guest of Shanghai Forum 2013 中国是一个崛起中的大国，但是被许多 传统的价值观所束缚。美国已经是一个发展强 国，但也在寻求转型和变革。中美两国都是非 常成功的经济体，与世界其他国家和地区也都 有非常紧密的联系，中美两国的关系将对世界 其他国家之间的关系产生重要的影响。 072 China is a rising power, but is guided by many traditional views. The United States is an established power, but seeks change. Both the United States and China are highly successful economies, deeply interconnected with many countries and regions. Their relationship will have an important impact on the relations of many others and the world. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 上海论坛共识 SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS 亚洲的和谐发展将造福全世界 The Harmonious Development of Asia: Good for Asia and Good for the World 亚洲在转型中增进社会福祉 Asia: To Promote Social Welfare through Transition 合作：亚洲应对危机的关键选择 Cooperation: Asia's Choice in Response to the Crisis 全球经济再平衡与亚洲的持续复苏 The Rebalance of Global Economy and A Sustained Recovery in Asia 亚洲选择：以全球视野参与全球治理 The Choice of Asia: Global Governance with a Global Vision 坚持亚洲合作与创新，推动发展转型，创造繁荣发展 Stick to Cooperation and Creation, Push Transformational Development, and Create Asian Prosperity 在多元中寻求共识，在和谐中实现发展 Seek Consensus from Diversity, Achieve Development in Harmony 掌握转型主动权，走亚洲特色创新之路 Initiate to Innovate and Transcend with Asian Characteristics 073 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS 上海论坛 共识 （2007 ） 亚 洲的和谐发 展将 造福 全 世界 亚洲经济增长与社会发展对世界具有重要的影响。 亚洲各国文化多元，制度各异，优势互补，经济繁荣。 经济的一体化需要金融市场的一体化，全球金融 在新一轮经济全球化的浪潮下，亚洲各国正在经历着深 市场一体化既促进了资源的有效配置，又给世界各国带 刻的经济制度变革、结构重组和增长方式的转变，随着 来了更更多的金融风险。亚洲各国、各地区和各金融中 新的发展合作空间日益增大，快速成长的亚洲城市已开 心，应以亚洲的共同繁荣和稳定为目标，加强金融合 始扮演全球网络结点的重要角色，极大的增强了亚洲和 作，增强应对金融风险和促进经济社会稳定的能力。为 全球的活力。 此各国政府必须建立一套安全有效的地区汇率协调机 由于地缘和文化的优势，亚洲各国在历史上保持 着长期互动协作的发展关系，共同为亚洲和世界文明的 制，维持汇率的动态稳定，消除各经济体之间汇率恶性 竞争。 传承作出过重要的贡献。20世纪中叶以来，由于较为 中国在世界经济中发挥着日益重要的作用，中国的 成功地整合了政府与民众的目标，亚洲各国的发展可谓 汇率制度与货币政策对其周边国家也有着重要的影响。 瞬息万变，卓尔不群。亚洲的崛起发轫于日本，随后是 人民币汇率形成机制的改革是中国主动适应国际汇率形 韩国、新加坡等东亚及部分东南亚国家和地区，创造了 成机制的重要举措；人民币汇率的合理调整，体现了中 “东亚奇迹”。而在中国，始于1978年的改革开放，使 国的大国责任。中国将积极参与和推动东亚金融货币领 这个拥有13亿人口的发展中大国经历了连续28年的经济 域的合作，进一步深化金融改革，促进亚洲共同市场的 高速增长。与此同时，印度经济也正在快速崛起。 建设。 但是，亚洲经济社会的发展也面临着诸多严峻的挑 拥有多元文化的亚洲各国、各民族共同传承着古 战：许多国家和地区顺应了全球制造业转移的格局，形成 老而灿烂的文明。亚洲各国、各民族不仅应该增进跨国 了以制造业为主的产业结构，导致能源消耗过度，环境恶 家、跨地区、跨民族的经济往来与合作，更应该加强彼 化加剧；金融领域的不断开放，带来金融风险及传导效应 此间的文化交流与融合。亚洲曲折的历史还告诉人们， 的增加，等等。过量消耗资源和污染环境的经济发展模式 只有和平共处，平等合作，互济互助，亚洲各国才能和 已难以为继，亚洲国家和地区已经或正在步入资源节约型 谐发展，共同繁荣。 的发展阶段。能源问题关系各国的经济安全和可持续发 展，能源安全是国际社会共同面临的难题，所以，能源合 074 作应该成为亚洲区域合作的重要组成部分。 亚洲的和谐发展将造福全世界！ WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS (2007) The Harmonious Development of Asia: Good for Asia and Good for the World The economic growth and social development of Asia are making great contributions to the global economy. Asian nations, given their diverse cultures and political systems, large populations, complementary advantages, as well as economic prosperity, are undergoing profound institutional reform and economic restructuring. Their patterns of economic development have been profoundly transformed by the new tide of globalization. The space for Asian economic development and cooperation is expanding rapidly, and Asia’s great cities are becoming central nodes in economic networks that bring vitality to Asia and the world. Due to geographical and cultural factors, Asian nations have a long history of close interaction and cooperative development. Together, they have made major contributions to civilization, in Asia and the world. Since the middle of the Twentieth Century, Asian governments have concentrated their efforts on enhancing the welfare of their people, and have succeeded in accelerating their development and achieving more rapid economic progress than most other regions of the globe. Asia has experienced successive ‘Asian Miracles’, first in Japan, then in South Korea and Singapore, and later in East-Asia and Southeast-Asia. As a developing country with a population of 1.3 billion people, China has also enjoyed rapid economic growth for almost 3 decades since its Reform and Opening in 1978. Today, the Indian economy is also rising rapidly. While the social and economic development of Asia are substantial achievements, difficult challenges lie ahead. Having become global centers of manufacturing, many Asian countries and regions have formed manufacturingbased industrial structures, which have led to high levels of energy consumption and environment degradation. Opening-up in the financial sector, in turn, has brought about increasing financial risk and risks of international contagion, to name but a few. A development strategy based on the overconsumption of energy and environmental pollution is no longer sustainable, and it is now essential for Asia to develop a new strategy based on energy-economical development. The energy issue is critical because it affects economic security as well as sustainable development for all nations, and energy security is a problem shared by the whole international community. Therefore, energy cooperation must constitute an important aspect of regional cooperation in Asia. Economic integration requires the integration of financial markets. An integrated financial market promotes the efficient allocation of resources on one hand, but it may also lead to financial risks on the other. All Asian nations, regions and financial centers share a powerful stake in achieving common prosperity and stability on the Continent. Therefore, Asia should strengthen financial cooperation, and manage risk more efficiently, as well as promote social and economic stability. A secure and effective mechanism of stabilizing regional currencies should also be created by the governments to maintain the dynamic stability of exchange rates, as well as to eliminate the risk of vicious exchange rate competition among economies. China is playing an increasingly important role in world economy. China’s exchange rate system and currency policies have a great impact on its neighbors. The reform of the RMB exchange-rate formation mechanism is a major initiative for China to adjust its policies to the international exchange rate formation mechanism. The adjustment of the RMB exchange rate demonstrates China’s willingness to accept its responsibilities as a rising economic power. China will actively participate in and strengthen financial cooperation in East Asia, deepen financial reform, and promote the development of a common market. The nations of Asia, based on their rich diversity of cultures, share an ancient and splendid civilization. They are now taking new steps to advance cultural exchange and economic cooperation across national and regional boundaries. The long flow of Asian history reveals yet another lesson: Harmonious development and common prosperity can be achieved only through peaceful coexistence, and only through cooperation based on equality and mutual assistance. The harmonious development of Asia will bring substantial benefits to the whole world! 075 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS 上海论坛 共识 （2008 ） 亚 洲在转型中 增进 社会 福 祉 经济全球化是世界经济发展的一个基本趋势，对 经济全球化促使经济结构转化和要素重新配置。 特定国家或地区而言，经济全球化既意味着机遇，也 经济发展伴随着劳动力从农业流向工业、从农村转 蕴涵着挑战。作为对经济全球化的回应，20世纪80年 向城市。20世纪80年代以来，亚洲的产业结构持续 代之后，亚洲走上了以内部调整和外部合作为主线的 转化，城市化水平快速提高，以东京、香港、上海等 转型之路。亚洲转型的目标是实现经济增长和社会发 为核心的城市群快速发展，成为推动区域增长的重要 展，增进亚洲民众的社会福祉，使亚洲成为推动世界 引擎。未来亚洲仍需推进城市化以促使劳动力持续流 和平与发展的积极力量。 转，仍需在工业化和城市化之间保持协调，仍需增强 解放和发展生产力是增进社会福祉的前提，亚洲 076 治理能力以提升市民生活品质。 的转型以实现经济持续增长为基础，即通过优化资源 在经济全球化背景下，亚洲的金融体系也面临着 配置以增加社会财富。据此，亚洲的转型体现为经济 转型使命。企业需要通过融资来增强竞争优势，而金 体制转轨、经济结构转化、金融制度转型和能源政策 融发展直接影响着企业的竞争能力。为此，亚洲各国 完善。 遵循有序、可控原则，在国内强调多种资本的有序进 经济体制转轨是亚洲多数国家做出的重要选择。 入和良性竞争，在国际强调依据市场法则形成有效的 市场经济具有相对于计划经济的效率优势，当前亚洲 汇率机制。中国正处在全面开放阶段，其金融转型以 多数国家试图在提高市场化程度的基础上形成市场- 放松管制和强化调控为指向，稳妥推进内部的金融体 政府的良性互动。日本、印度等国具有不断完善市场 制改革和外部的汇率机制改革。 体系的内在要求，中国、越南等国则面临着计划经济 亚洲的增长将越来越显著地受到能源制约，尤其 向市场经济的转轨任务。1978年以来中国探索出一条 是中国、印度等大国，其能源紧平衡将挑战增长的持 渐进式转轨道路，不仅创造了举世瞩目的“增长的奇 续性。亚洲需要利用国际市场缓解能源压力，但更需 迹”，而且启发了其他国家根据国情选择转轨路径。 要调整增长方式并寻求接替方式。中国已提出将粗放 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 型发展转变为集约型发展，通过创新能力提升和产业 依靠市场供给，结果许多居民的需求因收入约束而难 结构转型减弱对能源的刚性依赖。同时，亚洲国家纷 以充分满足。中国等亚洲国家应加快转变政府职能， 纷完善能源储备体系，改革定价机制以提高能源利用 廓清政府-市场的作用边界，针对弱势群体形成更有效 率，推动技术创新以开发替代性能源。 的民生物品供给体系。 亚洲的转型以经济增长为前提，但增长不是转型 经济全球化使各国更具有“利益共同体”特征， 的全部，增长也不等于发展和福祉增进。亚洲转型必 亚洲的转型必须重塑国家交往方式。各国应通过对话 须考虑社会发展，分配制度完善、人口模式转变、民 化解矛盾，通过合作实现共赢，通过包容实现文化多 生问题化解和区域合作增强也应是转型的重要内容。 样性。近年，亚洲各国的交流极为活跃，通过对话解 亚洲的转型应使人们相对均匀地分享增长成果。 决矛盾的意识不断增强，亚太经合组织、东盟自由贸 “二战”之后，亚洲的增长并未带来分配格局的普遍 易区、上海合作组织、南亚合作联盟、亚信峰会、东 优化。改革开放30年以来，中国取得了显著的增长绩 亚峰会、博鳌论坛的运行渐趋成熟，朝鲜核问题也借 效，但收入分配差距依然突出。为此，中国已提出贯 助“六方会谈”正形成各方谋求对话的常规机制。未 彻科学发展观和构建和谐社会，强调统筹城乡、区域 来，亚洲各国仍须增强互信，冲破阻力，谋求进步， 和行业的发展，在分配制度中凸现公平正义原则。中 特别是中国和印度的崛起会加快亚洲社会格局的演 国为实现社会正义与和谐所作的努力，对国内和亚洲 化，两国应以合作与协商为基调实现共同发展。 的持续发展均有积极作用。 亚洲的转型已取得了增进社会福祉的显著绩效， 亚洲的转型与人口模式转变紧密相关。当前亚 亚洲对世界经济增长贡献率也超过30%，已成为最具 洲的“人口红利”日趋减弱，“人口老龄化”日益凸 活力的地区和推动世界发展的主要力量。但是，亚洲 现。日本、韩国的“人口老龄化”尤为突出，中国也 的转型具有系统性、复杂性，不可能一蹴而就、一帆 面临剩余劳动规模缩减和“未富先老”的挑战。亚洲 风顺。亚洲在经济发展、政治建设、安全稳定等方面 需要通过市场完善来加速劳动力流动，提高劳动配置 仍面临着许多挑战，能源危机、粮食危机、金融风 效率，需要整合市场力量和政府作用，完善卫生医疗 险、环境污染、恐怖主义、自然灾害、重大传染性疾 和社会保障体系，实现经济的持续增长和居民的福利 病、大规模杀伤性武器扩散等影响到亚洲的稳定与发 增加。 展。亚洲的转型依然任重而道远，需要汲取众人智慧 教育、医疗、住房等物品的供给对居民福祉增进 至关重要。“二战”之后，亚洲居民的教育、医疗和 并付出持续努力，需要各国调整内部战略，加强共同 治理，以努力构建和平、发展、合作、开放的亚洲。 住房条件已有明显改善，但在经济全球化背景下，这 些物品的供给总量仍须扩大，供给方式亟待调整。改 革开放之后，中国的教育、医疗和住房快速转向过度 077 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS (2008) Asia: To Promote Social Welfare through Transition Economic globalization, the underpinning of world economic development when it comes to specific countries and regions, offers both opportunities and challenges. Since the 1980s, Asia has embarked on a journey of economic transition featuring both internal restructuring and external cooperation. The overall transition aims to spur economic growth and social development, to enhance social welfare, and ultimately to position Asia as a positive force in the course of world peace and development. Asia’s economic transition is grounded on sustained economic growth with the goal of increasing social wealth through the emancipation and development of productive forces and the optimization of resource allocation. Implementation of this transition is achieved through restructuring economic and financial systems as well as energy policy transformation. Restructuring of the economic system to a marketoriented economy is a critical choice that has now been made by most Asian countries. A marketoriented economy possesses indisputable advantages over a planned economy in terms of efficiency. Many Asian countries are trying to establish mutually-beneficial interaction between markets 078 and governments based on strengthening marketoriented reforms. Countries like Japan and India face continuous demand to optimize established marketbased systems, while other Asian countries, including China and Vietnam, address economic transition from a planned economy to a market-oriented one. Since 1978, China has embarked upon its own path of transition, not only creating a globally-renowned “economic growth miracle”, but also inspiring many other countries to adopt paths of transition in accordance with the reality of their own situations. Economic globalization provides impetus for economic restructuring and the reallocation of productive elements. It is safe to say that economic growth goes hand in hand with the shift of the labor force both from agriculture to industry and from rural to urban areas. Ever since the 1980s, Asia’s industrial structure has seen constant change. The process of urbanization is unstoppable, with cities like Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Shanghai not only becoming centers of rapid development, but also becoming vital drivers of regional economic growth. In the future, Asia still needs to govern the process of urbanization to encourage a steady flow of labor, to maintain a balance between industrialization and urbanization, and to enhance the administrative capabilities of its WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG governments in order to attain the ultimate goal of a better life for the people. Under globalization, Asia’s financial system has also encountered the need for transition. Financing is required by enterprises to sharpen their competitiveness, and thus, the development of a market-based financial system has a direct impact on the performance of companies. On one hand, Asian countries have been obeying the principles of order and controllability, paving the way for the orderly competition of capital in the domestic markets. On the other hand, they have been reliant on an international exchange mechanism based on international market conventions. China is in the middle of its course of “Opening-up”. In terms of financial transition, this process is oriented toward both the loosening of constraints and the strengthening of regulations. Such efforts will steadily deepen the reform of the internal financial system as well as the external exchange rate mechanism. Asia’s economic growth is increasingly constrained by the availability of energy. The sustainable growth of big powers, like China and India, is particularly challenged by the tight balance between energy supply and demand. Asia must make use of international markets to ease these pressures, and more importantly, Asian countries must reconsider their methods of economic growth, such as seeking new alternative models for progress. China has announced its transition from an extensive mode of economic growth to an intensive one, with the aim of reducing dependence on energy resources through boosting innovation and restructuring industries. In the meantime, Asian countries have been engaged in optimizing energy reserve systems and reforming pricing mechanisms in order to improve energy utility rates, in addition to promoting technological innovation in the search for alternative energy supplies. The transition in Asia is preconditioned, but not defined, by economic growth. Economic growth doesn’t necessarily entail development or an improvement in social welfare. Therefore, Asia’s transition must take social development into consideration: the optimization of distribution systems, the transition of demographic structures, resolution of the issues of mass livelihood, and the enhancement of regional cooperation are all essential components of this transition. Asia’s transition should enable the benefits of growth to be shared by all. The mass economic growth experienced by Asia since WWII has not resulted in an extensive optimization of the distribution system. Over the past 30 years of reform, China has managed to achieve significant economic growth, but income inequality still remains conspicuous. Therefore, China has called for the adoption of a “scientific outlook on development” and established the goal of building a harmonious society, putting an emphasis on the planning of urban, rural, regional, and industrial development, while demonstrating the principles of equality and justice. China’s efforts to achieve social justice and harmony have had positive impacts on the sustained development of China, and Asia as a whole. The transition of Asia is also closely related to its changing demographic structure. Asia’s demographic dividend is waning, while the aging population is waxing. The demographic challenges are especially prominent in Japan and Korea. China is also confronted with the twin challenges of a shrinking labor pool and a growing number of aging poor. In order to address these problems, Asia must refine its markets to: increase labor flow, promote the efficient distribution of labor, coordinate market forces with government efforts, enhance medical care and social security, and achieve sustained growth of both the economy and social welfare. 079 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS The supply of social services such as education, medical care, and housing are essential to the improvement of human welfare. Since WWII, Asian residents have enjoyed significantly improved social services. However, against the background of economic globalization, the overall supply of these services still needs to be increased and the means of supply adjusted. Ever since China launched its economic reform, education, medical care, and housing services have quickly assumed an over-dependence on market supply, resulting in a failure to fulfill the needs of people due to their limited income. In searching for solutions, China and other Asian countries should accelerate the process of readjusting the role of government, more clearly define the boundaries of market and government functions, and establish a more efficient supply system for vital services to the least privileged groups. Economic globalization has given all nations a common interest in which they are all “stakeholders” in global alliances. In recognition of this, the economic transition of Asia also requires new forms of diplomacy between Asian countries. Each nation must seek to overcome misunderstanding and conflict through constructive dialogue aiming for mutually-beneficial cooperation and open-minded cultural diversity. In recent years, we have steadily witnessed the growth of dynamic interaction among Asian countries and increased dialogue in collectively solving problems. APEC, the ASEAN Free Trade Area, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the South Asia Cooperation Union, the Asia Info Summit, the East Asia Summit and the Bo’ao Forum for Asia are all organizations that function for these very purposes and are presently growing toward maturity. The North Korea nuclear issue is also progressing towards a more peaceful problem-solving approach through the dialogue-based approach of the Six-Party Talks. Looking to the future, Asian countries still have a long way to go in terms of fostering mutual trust and breaking down the barriers that stand in the way of progress. In particular, the development of 080 dialogue and collaboration between China and India would hasten the evolution of a new socio-political structure in Asia. With 30% of world economic growth to its credit, Asia has become the most dynamic economic region and a major impetus to world development. Yet it must be noted that the transition of Asia is systematic and complicated, and it would thus be impossible to effect decisive change in a single clean sweep. Asia still faces many challenges in terms of economic development, political consolidation and social stability. Ongoing issues, such as energy and food crises, financial risks, environmental pollution, terrorism, natural disasters, outbreak of major infectious diseases, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, all affect Asia’s stability and development. In the long run, we still have a long way to go in completing Asia’s transition, which requires not only collective wisdom and sustained efforts, but also strategic adjustment and collective governance, so that we can all witness peace, development, cooperation and openness in Asia. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 上海论坛 共识 （2009 ） 合 作：亚洲应 对危 机的 关 键选 择 发展是人类社会演进的内在动力，也是当今世 峻挑战、亟需摆脱困境的关键时期。 界面临的重大主题。亚洲作为世界人口最多、面积最 当前，国际金融危机已经演变为1929-1933年大萧 大、国别差异最为明显的大洲，更是面临着促进经 条以来全球范围内最严重的经济危机，国际金融危机 济、社会、文化、政治等持续发展的历史使命，这些 和全球经济衰退是当前亚洲各国所面临的最重大、最 发展的基本指向是持续提升亚洲居民的福利水平。在 严峻的外部挑战。追根溯源，国际金融危机导源于美 经济全球化的背景下，亚洲内部不同国家之间，以及 国的虚拟经济与实体经济发展之间存在失衡，而这种 亚洲与区外不同国家之间的关联性趋于增强，亚洲的 失衡及其诱发的全球经济衰退，通过贸易途径影响了 发展需要认真考量不同国家在洲内和洲际的利益共同 亚洲各国、尤其是新兴经济体的出口增长趋势，通过 体特征，通过构建国家间的平等互信、协调合作机制 资本途径影响了亚洲各国、尤其是新兴经济体的资本 来实现持续发展和共同繁荣。 流入速度，出口增长和资本流入下降又抑制了亚洲各 从历史的视角看，任何发展都不可能一帆风顺、 国的企业投资意愿、就业创造机会和居民消费能力， 一蹴而就，亚洲的发展同样是在不断面临危机和应对 国际经济危机已经显著地拖累了亚洲各国、特别是新 挑战中逐步推进的。当前，亚洲正面临外部输入型危 兴经济体的经济快速增长态势。 机和内部自生型危机交织作用的复杂格局，尽管不同 在国际金融危机对亚洲经济影响深化和蔓延的态 国家面临的具体挑战和困难存在差异，但整体上，亚 势下，亚洲多数国家已经通过财政政策和货币政策的 洲正面临着国际金融危机导致的多元性经济社会危机 组合来刺激经济增长，这些政策在短期内对于提振公 的挑战。美国“次贷”危机所引发的国际金融危机 众信心、阻止经济衰退具有积极作用，但扩张性财政 和全球性经济衰退正在深刻改变着国际经济格局， 政策和放松性货币政策的长期效力仍需实践检验。特 而国际金融危机正在并将继续对亚洲经济社会产生 别是，分散化的经济政策可能难以有效应对全球性的 负面影响。与此同时，亚洲所面临的传统经济社会危 金融危机，各国间的集体行动可以更好地斩断危机在 机———能源危机、粮食危机、环境危机、社会危机 时空层面的传染链条。显然，在国际金融危机影响趋 等依然存在并亟待化解。国际金融危机和传统经济社 于深化的背景下，亚洲各国比以往任何时候都需要强 会危机之间的叠加和互动，意味着亚洲正处在面临严 化同舟共济的理念，比以往任何时候都需要践行合作 081 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS 共赢的承诺，非合作博弈只能延续和扩大金融危机对 印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国等国家仍面临着加速推进 亚洲经济社会的负面影响。 工业化和城市化的重要使命。工业化所标度的经济结 亚洲的经济合作首先需要增强金融合作。现代经 构转变和城市化所标度的社会结构转变，通常是发展 济增长以金融发展为前提，而金融发展又以实体经济 中国家经济增长的重要引擎和主要标志，工业化和城 增长为基础，亚洲各国家的经济增长需要充分发挥金 市化过程通常是就业岗位增加、收入水平提高、消费 融体系的融资功能和支付功能。国际金融危机表明， 能力增强的过程，东京、香港、首尔、上海、北京、 金融发展应在效率和稳健之间形成更好的均衡。就整 孟买、达卡等大城市作为“增长极”对带动区域经济 体而言，亚洲各国、特别是新兴经济体仍面临着持续 增长已经起到了重要作用。基于此，亚洲各国应通过 推进金融改革和金融创新的历史使命，中国提出将上 投资合作来加快区域基础设施建设步伐，通过劳务合 海打造为国际金融中心正是这种使命的集中体现。亚 作和市场开放来增强劳动力在区域内部的可流动性， 洲各国在促进金融发展的进程中，不 资本和劳动要素在亚洲内部的有效配置可以推动亚洲 仅应通过渐进方式来平滑金融体系转型的可能震 荡，应通过提升各国内部的金融监管效率来降低创新 的经济增长动力源泉。 的潜在风险，而且应通过加强国家之间的金融合作和 亚洲的经济合作还需要增强亚洲各国在国际事务 政策协调来应对区域性的金融风险，构建切合亚洲自 中的协调。国际金融危机暗示着以美元作为单一世界 身需要的金融风险预警与防范合作机制，强化双边货 货币的经济体系存在弊端，而构建在美国经济超级地 币互换、建立区域外汇储备体系、推进亚洲债券市场 位基础上的“布雷顿森林体系”亟需改进，只有在对 建设等努力，均具有重要的实践意义。 传统的危机应对机制进行适宜性改进才可能摆脱当前 亚洲的经济合作需要通过经贸合作来增强国际竞 的经济困局。从化解金融危机和促进自身发展的角度 争能力。从日本、韩国和中国等国的经济增长历程来 出发，亚洲各国需要积极参与构建各种方式的全球危 看，出口导向方式基本上是这些经济体实现高速经济 机共同治理机制，也需要通过对话沟通来增强在共同 增长的集体选择，然而，出口导向增长方式导致亚洲 治理机制构建层面的协调性。博鳌亚洲论坛、东盟自 经济对外部经济波动高度敏感，在国际金融危机和全 由贸易区、大湄公河区域经济合作、东北亚经济圈等 球经济衰退的背景下，亚洲主要国家的出口导向战略 已为亚洲内部的协调与合作提供了有利条件。在此基 面临着前所未有的巨大挑战。在国际金融危机对亚洲 础上，亚洲各国还应强化与其他区域的协作观念，提 经济造成显著影响的背景下，亚洲各国需要共同抵制 升与其他区域的合作质量。特别是，在推进国际货币 来自内外部的贸易保护主义，充分 体系改革的进程中，亚洲各国应通过协调行动加强对 利用双边贸易自由安排并积极推进自由贸易区建 美元等国际货币发行的监督，提升新兴经济体和发展 设，通过增加区域内贸易规模、提升区域内贸易层次 中国家的代表性和发言权，按照渐进原则推进国际金 来推动亚洲各国的经济增长。与此同时，亚洲内部还 融组织改革和国际货币多元化进程，增强亚洲经济和 应加快空间层面的产业梯度转移和技术扩散进程，新 世界经济发展的稳健性，提升亚洲经济对全球经济增 兴经济体应通过产业结构升级改变其在产业价值链中 长的贡献度。 的不利地位，通过产品品质提升来增强在国际市场中 的核心竞争力，正处在起飞阶段的经济体则应充分发 挥其资源优势，通过发展劳动密集型和资本密集型产 业实现经济增长，亚洲内部的产业分工与 协作，将有助于拓展市场范围并通过产业一体化 进程来推动区域经济发展。 亚洲的经济合作需要通过协调投资与就业来推动 结构转变。回应国际金融危机挑战的根本途径是提升 亚洲自身的需求能力，更有效地满足亚洲居民的生活 需要，提升亚洲居民的福利水平。尽管日本、韩国等 国家已经基本完成了工业化和城市化任务，但中国、 082 的工业化和城市化进程，并形成建基于亚洲内部需求 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 亚洲各国还需要在合作中探求适合自身需要的经 将针对亚洲市场需求的对抗性策略转为合作性策略。 济增长模式。上世纪70年代以来，强调市场自由、金 除了能源危机和粮食危机之外，亚洲在工业化 融自由和贸易自由的“华盛顿共识”在全球范围内大 和城市化进程中也面临着环境和社会等层面的常规性 行其道，而过度推崇市场自由竞争和自发调节正是导 危机。在工业化和城市化进程中，环境保护和治理的 致美国“次贷”危机的一个诱因，国际金融危机为反 公共品属性以及采用要素密集投入的粗放型增长方 思“华盛顿共识”的普适性提供了一个契机，如何更 式，导致亚洲许多国家出现了环境和生态持续恶化的 有效地发挥市场在配置资源中的基础性作用仍是一个 态势，亚洲的大城市在发挥经济、政治、文化中心功 重大命题。亚洲各国需要通过交流和互动来更好地理 能的同时，也往往成为能源消费中心和废弃物排放中 解政府与市场的内在关系，通过相互学习与借鉴来探 心。同时，亚洲的工业化和城市化进程也伴随着收入 求契合本土特征的发展模式。这种反思和学习绝不是 差距拉大、福利分配失衡、城市犯罪增加、社会矛盾 要阻断融入全球化和市场化改革的进程，而是要在总 激化等问题。为了化解环境危机和社会危机，亚洲各 结经验教训的基础上形成更具持续性和竞争力的增长 国家应在经济体内部凸显以人为本的科学发展理念， 方式。 增强针对生态建设和环境保护的投资力度，更加重视 伴随着应对国际金融危机的挑战，亚洲各国的利 就业创造和社会保障体系完善。除此而外，还应在亚 益共同体特征不断凸显，这种特征已经勾勒出亚洲新 洲各国之间形成更为有效的能源与社会危机应对平 型经济合作体系的基本架构。这种架构的基本内涵是 台，增强区域性或次区域性的环境保护和治理共同行 亚洲各国的合作理念趋于增强，合作范围不断拓展， 动，通过产权交易、技术合作、人员培训等方式提升 合作模式日趋多样，合作目标更加务实，危机“倒 亚洲整体的生态文明程度，通过建立区域化犯罪预防 逼”机制已经促使亚洲通过合作互动来找寻走出困境 和惩罚机制来提高亚洲整体的社会稳定程度，通过增 的有效路径。合作互动有助实现共赢、与邻为壑难免 强在人口计生服务和人力资本提升层面的合作来增强 殃及自身，这已逐渐成为亚洲各国的共同认知。亚洲 亚洲整体的持续发展能力。 面临的经济社会危机具有多元化和复杂性特征，亚洲 亚洲通过增强合作来应对金融危机挑战、实现 已经加快了形成常规性合作安排、灵活性合作方式的 区域持续发展，必然要求并且导致亚洲国际关系在渐 进程，而这一进程不仅对亚洲化解外部输入型的国际 进演化原则下的重新建构。这不仅表现在亚洲内部不 金融危机具有重要意义，而且也对亚洲解决自身内生 同国家之间经济政治关系出现演变，而且也表现在亚 型的经济社会政治难题具有积极作用。 洲各国与区外国家的经济政治关系发生变化。总体而 在未来较长时期内，工业化和城市化加速推进依 言，亚洲国际关系重塑表现出主权国家之间的竞争格 然是亚洲经济社会发展的重大主题，这在中国和印度 局，也表现出为应对共同危机而呈现的主权国家之间 这两个世界上最大的发展中国家显得尤为突出。工业 的合作态势，竞争与合作并存以及合作趋势增强、合 化和城市化加速推进必然导致亚洲对石油、粮食等大 作方式多元是当前亚洲国际经济政治关系升级调整的 宗商品形成较为持续的需求，除自身供给之外，这种 基本内涵，从“竞争主导”格局走向“竞争合作双重 需求通过大宗商品国际市场来充分满足。由于发达国 驱动”格局是亚洲国际经济政治关系演变的主要趋 家金融市场过度的投机行为及其垄断部分基础原材料 向。中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家和新兴经济 的市场势力，亚洲国家在国际大宗商品定价决策中整 体，为了回应国际金融危机和国内结构性矛盾的双重 体上处于相对弱势地位，并经常面临着石油、粮食国 挑战，不仅在国内积极实施以“保增长、扩内需、调 际市场价格急剧波动的严峻挑战，能源危机、粮食危 结构、惠民生”为主线的宏观经济政策，而且在国际 机很可能是贯穿于亚洲工业化和城市化历程的常规性 上积极参与不同形式的区域性和全球性协调与合作机 危机。据此，亚洲各国、特别是中印两国需要加强在 制，体现了通过实现自身高速经济增长来惠及亚洲和 能源和粮食领域的合作，通过共同监测国际大宗商品 世界经济的责任，也体现了通过强化互动合作来化解 市场波动、共同设立能源和粮食储备、共同开展能源 国际金融危机和其他经济社会危机的诚意。这种努力 与粮食技术创新等方式来应对外部危机。亚洲各国、 对于推动亚洲国际经济关系从“竞争主导”格局走向 特别是中印两国还应通过需求方联合，依靠集体行动 “竞争合作双重驱动”格局是有促进作用的。 来提升在国际大宗商品市场的定价权，促使发达国家 在经济全球化程度日渐增强的态势下，亚洲各国 083 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS 需要认真反思传统的增长方式，积极构建有效的合作 他危机的能力将会逐渐增强，而新型合作体系也必将 体系，以此来找寻回应内外部挑战的最优路径。特别 为亚洲各国“转危为机”提供坚实基础。突围需要信 是，亚洲各国所面临的危机具有相似性，而危机的后 心，信心产生力量，亚洲政府和居民应该增强对未来 果在空间层面具有传染性，由此出发，回应多元性经 经济社会发展的信心。这种信心来源于对传统增长方 济社会危机、实现经济社会持续发展必须增强各个层 式及其内在弊端的持续反思，来源于对亚洲多元化、 次的交流与合作，通过构建区域和次区域的共同治理 常规性合作机制构建的持续推动，来源于对居民生活 机制来摆脱困境、实现共赢。亚洲各国应逐步构建以 水平改善和福利水平提升的持续追求。危机催生合 经济为中心、涵盖社会政治等多项议题的立体化合作 作，合作促进发展，亚洲各国已经作出了增强多层 体系，这种合作体系既体现在亚洲各国内部不同群体 次、多形式合作的关键选择，这一选择的实施需要亚 通过利益协调来实现和谐发展，也体现在亚洲各国之 洲各国政府、企业、居民以及其他经济社会组织的协 间依托区域合作机制来实现共同发展，还体现在亚洲 力推动，而构建在合作和协力基础上的亚洲经济社会 各国与区外其他国家之间通过对话与交流来实现持续 也必将会实现全面、协调、持续发展的美好图景。 发展。 亚洲各国已经深刻意识到其所面临危机的复杂 性，也已经深刻意识到增强合作对于应对挑战和实现 发展的必要性。尽管国际金融危机对世界经济的影响 还在深化，亚洲经济由于外部经济环境恶化仍需调 整，亚洲所面临的其他经济社会危机也仍存在，但是 世界多数国家、特别是主要经济体已经采取了组合性 的经济政策，在发展实践中人们逐渐积累了更多应对 危机的经验智慧。更重要的是，不同国家和地区已经 将加强合作视为摆脱困境的重要途径。因此，从整体 趋势而言，国际金融危机以及其他危机对亚洲的负面 影响将会逐渐弱化，亚洲在回应国际金融危机以及其 084 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS (2009) Cooperation: Asia's Choice in Response to the Crisis Development has always been the internal drive in the progression of human society, and is now the major topic facing the current world. Asia, as the largest continent with the largest population and the largest number of countries, must undertake its historical missions to sustain the economic, social, cultural, and political growth, with the aim to promote the welfare of all Asian citizens. No development is plain sailing, and so is with Asia. Currently, Asia’s development faces a complex that is the intertwined crises both external and internal, among which the international financial crisis and the global economic downturn are the most severe. Asian societies, especially the emerging economies, slowed down their pace of trade export and the inflow of capital, which in return held back investment, employment, and consumption. It is fair to say that the crisis has remarkably undermined the rapid growth of Asian society. During their countermeasure against the crisis, Asian countries have fully realized the disadvantages of diverged policies. Only concerted action can halt its spread in time and space effectively. Under the deepening crisis, Asian societies need to take consorted actions more than ever before. So one of our key words today is cooperation. Only by cooperation can we weather through the dark time; only by cooperation will we achieve a win-win situation. The economic cooperation of Asian countries demands above all other factors, closer cooperation in the financial sector. What we have learnt from the international financial crisis is that financial development should try to strike a better balance between efficiency and stability. Generally speaking, Asian countries, especially emerging economies, still have the historic mission of deepening financial reform and financial innovation. And this mission has been exemplified in China’s proposal to build Shanghai into an international financial center. In developing the financial sector, Asian countries should mitigate the possible shock brought about by the transition of financial systems by conducting it in a gradual manner and also improve the efficiency of domestic financial regulation to reduce the possible risks of innovation. Asian countries should respond to the regional financial risks by strengthening financial 085 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS cooperation and policy coordination between nations, and build a cooperation mechanism that is suitable to Asia in terms of in-time warning and prevention of financial risks. The mechanism should aim at promoting bilateral currency exchange, building a regional foreign exchange reserve system and boosting Asian bond markets. Asian economies should increase their international competitive edge by cooperation in economics and trade. From the experience of economic growth in Japan, South Korea and China, export-orientedness is the collective choice to realize their rapid economic growth. However, the export-oriented growth resulted in extreme vulnerability of Asian economy to external economic fluctuations. In the context of an international financial crisis and the global economic recession, major countries in Asia are faced with unprecedented challenges due to the exportoriented strategy. Asian countries should jointly fight protectionism both domestic and international, make good use of bilateral free trade agreements and actively participate in the building of free trade zone. Asia economic growth should be stimulated by increased and multi-level regional trade. The labor division and cooperation in Asia will help to expand the market and improve the regional economy by the integration of industries. Asian economic cooperation should push forward the restructuring by coordinating investment and employment. Although countries like Japan and South Korea have basically accomplished industrialization and urbanization, many other nations such as China, India, Pakistan and Bengal are still charged with the mission of accelerating industrialization and urbanization, which may lead to the increase in job vacancies, salaries and consumer capability. Big cities including Tokyo, Hong Kong, Seoul, Shanghai, Beijing, Bombay and Dhaka serve as the engine in the regional economic growth. Therefore, Asian countries should speed up infrastructure construction with the assistance of investment and cooperation, and they should also increase the labor force mobility of the region by cooperating in labor services and opening up the market. The effective allocation of capital and labor inside Asia can not only accelerate its industrialization and urbanization but also make great contributions to the economic growth which takes root deeply in Asian domestic demand. Asian economic cooperation also requires more active participation of Asian countries in the coordination and cooperation in international affairs. The international financial crisis suggests the shortcomings of the current economic system in which the US dollar serves as the single world currency. Asian countries should be active in developing a co-governing mechanism to respond 086 to the global crisis. Dialogues and negotiations are also indispensable in the efforts to further coordination. Favorable conditions have been created for the coordination and cooperation inside Asia thanks to the Bo’ao Forum for Asia, ASEAN Free Trade Area, Greater Mekong Subregion, and Northeast Asian Economic Circle. In particular, in the course of promoting the reform of the international monetary system, Asian countries should coordinate to reinforce the supervision in monetary issue including the issue of the dollar, and accelerate the reform of international financial organizations in a progressive manner. In the process of battling the international financial crisis, Asian countries are emerging as a common interest group, which in turn sketches the new Asian framework of economic cooperation. Indeed Asia is witnessing an accelerated founding of a set of regular cooperation arrangements in flexible forms, a process not only of practical significance to Asia’s battle against the crisis, but also helpful for Asia countries in search for a solution to their common problems in the course of development. For instance, there are such common problems of energy and food. The accelerating Asian industrialization and urbanization indicate high and long-lasting demand on oil and food. However, the developed countries hold the dominant advantage of pricing rights, which often results in such challenges as drastically fluctuating oil and food prices against Asian countries. Energy and food crisis could be a recurrent challenge lingering throughout Asian industrialization and urbanization. Asian countries, China and India in particular, need to strengthen their cooperation in these fields and tackle the external crisis through the means of joint observation on the fluctuation of international commodity markets, joint reserve of food and energy, and joint development of innovative technologies in both fields. Asian countries need to strengthen their cooperation in order to fight the challenges ushered in by the WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG financial crisis, which requires progressive restricting of relations among Asian countries. Currently, the upgrade of Asian economic and political relations involves the co-existence of cooperation and competition among sovereign countries, the strengthening of co-operational trend, the diversification of means to such cooperation, and a shift from the current competition-oriented structure toward one that is driven by both cooperation and competition. As the greatest developing country and one of the emerging economies, China has taken an active participation in different regional and global coordination and cooperation in order to fight the challenges brought about by the international financial crisis and its domestic structural conflicts, which demonstrates its sincerity to push forward cooperation to tackle the international crisis and other socioeconomic crisis, and that it would take up the responsibility to benefit Asian and worldwide economies alike through its own high economic growth. Under the economic globalization, Asian countries are well aware of the necessity of strengthened cooperation in fighting challenges and attaining development. Generally speaking, the financial crisis and its negative impacts on Asia would fade out with time, and Asia’s ability to deal with international financial crisis and other crisis would in turn be enhanced. It requires confidence to break the deadlock, and such confidence would generate power in its own right. The crisis call for cooperation, and cooperation alone would boost development. Asian countries have made the key choice of promoting multi-level cooperation in various forms, the implement of which requires joint endeavor of Asian governments, enterprises, ordinary residents and other socioeconomic groups. I believe that an Asian society based upon cooperation and common endeavor would attain the prospect of comprehensive, coordinated and sustained growth. 087 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS 上海论坛 共识 （2010 ） 全 球经济再平 衡与 亚洲 的 持续 复 苏 发展是当代世界的重大主题，也是亚洲增进居民 体均采取了积极的财政和货币政策予以应对，但前者主 福祉的根本途径。亚洲的发展以经济持续增长为驱动 要通过金融复苏以带动实体经济增长，后者则更侧重实 力，同时也内涵社会、政治、文化等领域的协调推进。 施刺激性政策以直接驱动实体经济复苏。当前，全球经 在经济全球化不可逆转的背景下，亚洲的发展不仅需要 济正处在推进结构调整以重构秩序的关键时期，处在旧 亚洲与其他区域进行良性互动，而且需要亚洲各国对全 平衡被打破、新平衡在探索的转型阶段。就亚洲而言， 球格局变动形成有效回应。 中国、日本、韩国、印度等国为了回应危机的冲击，对 此次国际金融危机已造成全球性的经济衰退，并 对亚洲的持续发展产生了明显冲击。危机影响的严重性 和广泛性促使人们深刻反思此轮危机的成因，就本质而 言，此次危机是全球不同经济板块在贸易、金融等方面 实现了本地区经济的 企稳回升，而且为促进世界经济复苏起到了引擎 作用。 非均衡发展的衍生后果。自上世纪70年代以来，发达经 亚洲当前正处在“后危机时代”的复苏阶段，但 济体（以美欧为代表）和新兴经济体（以中印为代表） 复苏的稳定性和持续性仍需增强，复苏进程面临的不确 的关联度日趋增强，其关联方式为：发达经济体利用国 定性也亟待有效应对。亚洲复苏的持续性正受到诸多因 际货币优势竭力发展金融业，而新兴经济体则利用要素 素的影响：美国的经济政策能否使其走出“无就业式增 禀赋优势大力发展制造业。以各自的增长模式为前提， 长”的困境，希腊等国家的债务危机会否“拖累”全球 发达经济体大量进口并形成贸易逆差，而新兴经济体大 的复苏进程，不同国家在刺激性政策实施及退出策略中 量出口并保持贸易顺差；发达经济体因消费过度、货币 能否形成默契等。为了应对内外部的多重挑战，实现经 流入而投资过度，而新兴经济体因储蓄过度、外汇盈余 济的持续稳健复苏，亚洲各国必须立足长远发展，增强 而出现资金流出。上述关联方式使世界各国的共同利益 域内合作，认真反思增长模式，加快调整经济结构，通 特征得以增强，但关联关系的非均衡性已蕴藏着危机爆 过多维重构来夯实亚洲经济复苏的基础，打造亚洲经济 发的基因。当发达经济体家庭、企业和政府的债务过度 持久繁荣的新型动力机制。 膨胀与金融过度虚拟化同步发展时，全球经济非均衡的 潜在风险就会以金融危机的方式显性化。 此轮金融危机爆发以来，发达经济体和新兴经济 088 外推动务实合作，对内实施刺激性经济政策，不仅率先 亚洲经济秩序的重构首先表现为亚洲需要找寻并 重塑与美欧之间的新型平衡机制。在全球经济再平衡的 进程中，“美欧消费、亚洲生产”的贸易格局和“美欧 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 出现，这需要我们进行持续观察和深入研究。 亚洲推进国际货币体系重构的一个“试金石”是 其可否能动地确立其汇率制度和水平。改革开放以来， 中国根据经济发展形势适时地推进人民币汇率制度改 革。近期，美国为了平衡贸易逆差、增加就业岗位，联 合其他经济体对华施压要求人民币升值。然而，已有研 究难以为人民币汇率被低估提供有力支持，而人民币升 值不仅难以改变中美之间的贸易失衡、抵御输入性通胀 和促进经济结构调整，而且会在贸易、金融、储备、动 态、主权等层面产生福利损失，国际经验也显示：迫于 举债、亚洲储蓄”的资本格局需要重新审视。中美两国 外部压力所做出的汇率调整往往会损害调整者的利益。 在亚洲及全球经济发展具有举足轻重的作用，亚洲与美 在国际货币体系重构的背景下，中国和其他亚洲国家需 欧经济秩序重塑的核心是形成中美合作的新模式。作为 要推进务实合作，但不应为其他经济体过度承担责任， 金融危机的爆发国，美国应加强金融监管以提高经济增 其更应基于自身战略诉求能动地确定其汇率制度和水 长的稳定性，增加国内储蓄以提升居民消费的合理性， 平，在主动性、渐进性、可控性等原则指引下稳健地推 扩大对对外出口以降低国际贸易的失衡性，尤其应基于 进汇率制度的改革和完善。 就业创造而增加对新兴经济体的技术密集产品输出。作 亚洲与美欧之间的经济再平衡不仅需要重构国际 为金融危机的受冲击国，中国则应通过发展方式转型形 货币体系，而且需要重构亚洲域内的经济关联方式。一 成更具包容性和持续性的增长方式，通过刺激国内居民 个整合的亚洲可以增强对美欧的经济话语权，而一个协 消费来夯实增长的内部基础，通过优化产业结构来扩展 同的亚洲则可以减弱对欧美的经济依赖度。当前，亚洲 贸易的盈利空间，以此与美国等发达经济体在更高层次 各国需要凝聚共识、增强合作，依靠组合力量抑制美欧 上开展良性互动。 的贸易保护主义，避免亚洲经济因贸易逆转而出现增速 为了优化外部环境、促进全球发展，亚洲应努力 急剧下滑。亚洲各国还应利用其多样化、差异化显著的 推进国际货币体系的适宜性调整。当前改变以美国和美 特征，充分挖掘资源禀赋，有效发挥比较优势，在域内 元为主导的国际货币体系不具有现实性，但检视现行 推进产业结构梯度转移，条件成熟的地区应率先促进产 国际货币体系的实施效力、并渐进地探求国际金融合 业结构优化升级。同时，亚洲各国还应增强要素市场的 作新方式则既具必要性，也有可行性。金融危机爆发 信号功能，降低要素流动的交易成本，引导要素进行重 以来，以国际货币基金组织、世界银行和G20金融峰会 组和集聚，进而优化域内的产业分工结构，挖掘自身的 等为平台，中印等国在国际金融合作中的影响力日渐 投资需求潜能。考虑到资本对实体经济的驱动功能，则 彰显，而美国也基于危机的现实教训出台了严厉的金融 亚洲还要增强对内外部金融风险的识别和防范能力，应 监管法案。由于金融危机部分地削弱了华尔街的金融中 在强化监管的基础上推进域内货币合作进程，尝试构建 心地位，希腊债务危机也对欧洲的金融中心地位产生了 与区域 负面影响，因此，东京、香港、上海、首尔等亚洲城市 关联相耦合的“亚洲货币单位”。 的金融配置功能趋于增强，伴随着亚洲经济的强劲复苏 在金融危机对中国经济产生重大冲击的情形下， 和制度的持续完善，国际金融中心的洲际转移和多元趋 中国不仅通过实施“一揽子”刺激性政策避免了经济增 势很可能会成为特征事实。就当前来讲，基于国际货币 长快速下滑，而且强调加快发展方式转变以形成增长的 体系中美元本位地位难以动摇的事实，美国政府应以美 持续动力源泉。中国的经济发展方式转变具有多元性、 国的长远利益和全球利益为重，规范美国的货币和财政 系统性和关联性特征，而其核心是促进经济增长由主要 政策，以保持美元币值的稳定性。就长远来讲，在世界 依靠投资、出口拉动向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动 经济格局变化，尤其是亚洲实体经济规模持续增大的前 转变。这些转变的目标是通过动力结构调整夯实增长的 提下，人民币、日元或亚洲合作货币将在国际货币体系 内部基础，通过产业结构调整提升增长的竞争优势，通 中发挥更积极的作用，国际货币体系“一超”（美元） 过要素结构调整增强增长的可持续性。为此，中国应持 “多强”（欧元、日元、人民币或亚元）的新模式可能 续推进体制改革，重塑政府与居民、中央与地方、居民 089 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS 与居民的收入分配结构，采取组合政策缩减城乡、地 等。只有将外延拓展和内涵提升有机结合，亚洲城市发 区和行业的收入分配差距，完善针对城镇低收入群体 展才可以有效回应各种“陷阱”和“挑战”，并通过产 和农民的社会保障体系，重申政府在基本住房、基本 业集聚效应推动经济增长，通过信息互动效应推动社会 医疗和基础教育等领域的职责，以此为国内居民的消 融合，通过市场带动效应推动科技创新，从而更好地实 费拓展提供有利条件，为构建更具包容性的增长方式 现居民生活改善和福祉增进的发展目标。 奠定坚实基础。 由于能源和生态的时空配置对经济持续发展具有 在快速、普遍且难以逆转地进入人口老龄化阶段。人口 重要作用，因此亚洲的秩序重构还应考虑新兴能源和低 老龄化标度了亚洲的经济发展和社会转型已经取得积极 碳经济的引擎效应。亚洲经济的高速增长通常伴随着能 成效，但其同时也会对社会保障与公共福利、社会稳定 源的高消耗和生态的高破坏，从长期来看，构建在高能 与公共安全等产生压力，而对中印等发展中国家而言， 耗、高污染、高排放基础上的经济增长不仅难以持续 人口老龄化更是会对劳动力充裕且廉价的传统优势产生 的，而且会直接损害居民福利。亚洲采取渐进方式发展 直接影响。亚洲各国应审慎地对人口制度及相关政策体 新兴能源和低碳经济，是谋求自身发展、回应外部压力 系进行再设计，依托制度、组织和政策的完善来适应老 的关键抉择。然而，亚洲各国的经济发展存在差别，发 龄化社会。改革开放以来，中国的计划生育政策已经取 展新兴能源及低碳经济的能力并不相同，特别是中印两 得了显著成效，未来应立足于人口老龄化的发展态势， 国正处在工业化和城市化加速推进阶段，过度强调清洁 在考虑地区和群体差异性的前提下对生育政策进行渐进 化、低碳化可能会导致其经济增长出现剧烈震荡。据 式调整。同时，中国还应投资人力资本以提高劳动效 此，亚洲各国应按照“共同但有区别”的原则推进能源 率，完善要素市场以增加人口流动，尤其要深化户籍等 利用、生态保护和气候合作，日本、韩国等国应基于其 体制改革以加速农民的职业流转和身份转换，逐步实现 发展阶段率先降低排放量，并对其他国家提供资本和技 迁移人口在城市的经济社会融合。对中国等亚洲国家而 术支持；中国、印度等国既应基于大国责任提出减排的 言，必须立足于经济增长对养老、医疗和教育等社会保 路线图和时间表，更应在促进经济增长和发展低碳经济 障制度进行完善，立足于构建共享型社会而推进居民的 之间找到最佳平衡点，这不仅需要依托技术创新和市场 毕生健康和终身参与工程，构建与未来老龄化社会相适 培育提高能源利用效率、大力开发新兴能源，而且需要 依靠自主创新和市场完善推进企业技术进步、促进产业 结构升级。 伴随着要素流动性和人口集聚性的增强，亚洲各 国、尤其是发展中国家正在经历着史无前例的城市化进 程，这一进程将不可避免地重塑亚洲国家的经济社会结 构及其相互关系。城市化通常具有促进经济增长和导致 衍生问题的“双刃剑”效应，亚洲各国必须认真总结城 市化进程的经验教训，努力找寻城市发展的最优路径， 以在城市发展、经济增长、社会进步和居民生活改善之 间形成良性互动关系。2010年上海世博会以“城市， 让生活更美好”为主题，这为展示城市经济的繁荣、城 市科技的创新、城市社区的重塑和城市文化的融合提供 了平台，也会为人们深入思考城市发展的经验、挑战、 趋势及其路径选择提供了契机。上海世博会带给亚洲的 不仅是新产品、新发明等“工具理性”，而且是新创 意、新理念等“价值理性”。就思想启示而言，亚洲的 城市发展不仅应体现在外延层面的城市人口规模不断增 加、占比不断提高，而且应体现在内涵层面的产业结构 优化、居住环境改善、服务能力增强以及行政效率提高 090 伴随着经济增长和医疗条件的持续改善，亚洲正 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 应的社会治理和公共政策体系。 的重要性，意识到合作与协力的必要性，这种思维转变 亚洲的经济复苏和社会发展不是孤立事件，而是 和务实行动导致亚洲的多维重构不仅是未来愿景，而且 以亚洲的政治稳定、文化融合为前提条件。当前，美国 是可行方案。亚洲稳健复苏和持续发展的美好蓝图值得 对亚洲的“同盟与扩展”战略已基本定型，而亚洲对国 期待，而亚洲的稳健复苏和持续发展必定会带给亚洲居 际关系格局的重构作用也日渐凸现，特别是随着中国经 民更好的生活和更多的福祉，也必定会为世界的经济发 济增长和中美依赖对称性的提升，中国在中美双边交往 展和社会繁荣做出更为突出的贡献。 中的议程设置能力大大增强。基于国际关系格局的持续 性调整，亚洲各国、特别是主要经济体应强化沟通与协 调，通过一致行动以在国际经济政治舞台发挥更积极的 作用。同时，亚洲各国还应继续搭建合作平台，拓展沟 通渠道，增强以东盟为载体的南亚合作机制，深化以中 日韩伙伴关系为载体的东亚互动关系，创新朝核问题新 思维以促使朝鲜积极融入国际社会。随着经济一体化、 社会关联度、政治互动性的增强，亚洲各国之间的文化 交流必将日趋频繁。经济一体化可以优化资源配置，而 文化单一化却只能扼杀社会活力，经济发展有先后，但 文化分型无高低，亚洲的经济增长不能损害文化传承 性，亚洲各国的经济政治合作也不应牺牲文化的多样 性。将经济趋同化和文化多元化相结合是亚洲实现全面 发展的重要准则，而尊重历史、加强理解、促进融合也 应是亚洲实现文化繁荣的理性选择。 国际格局瞬息万变，域内形式错综复杂。在全球 经济再平衡的背景下，亚洲已率先步入复苏的通道，但 复苏的稳定性和持续性仍面临不确定性，亚洲亟需推进 经济、政治、社会、文化等诸多维度的重构。格局倒逼 出路，出路惟在重构。亚洲的重构具有复杂性和艰难 性，因为重构涉及多元主体、多重目标和多种约束。然 而，亚洲的重构更具重要性和急迫性，因为重构关联着 亚洲发展的持续性和协调性。为了回应挑战，亚洲应以 勇气、智慧、协作来推进多维重构，舍此别无他途。艰 难性不应成为亚洲延缓重构的理由，而复杂性则尤需亚 洲理性选择重构的路径。 亚洲的重构动力在于各国及其居民，重构收益也 应惠及各国及其居民。亚洲各国的发展阶段、战略诉求 和实际条件存在差异，因此，重构必须按照“求大同而 存小异”、“普遍化但有差别”的原则，凝聚共识、形 成合力、完善机制、共享收益，以形成亚洲推进多维重 构的持续动力机制。中国、日本、韩国和印度等国应在 推进亚洲重构中承担更多的职责、发挥更大的作用。同 时，亚洲各国应以增长方式转变、经济结构调整为突破 口，按照渐进性、协商性、可控性、动态性等基准积极 稳妥地推进重构进程。重构形成合力，合力驱动发展， 亚洲各国在“后危机时代”已经深刻意识到重构与调整 091 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS (2010) The Rebalance of Global Economy and a Sustained Recovery in Asia Development is a major theme of the contemporary world, and also a fundamental way to promote the well-being of residents in Asia. Asia’s development is driven by economic growth as well as the coordinated development in social, political, cultural and other fields. Under the irreversible background of economic globalization, Asia’s development needs not only the positive interactions between Asia and other regions, but also effective response of Asian countries to the changes in global patterns. The financial crisis has caused global economic recession, exerting a significant impact on the sustainable development of Asia. The severe and widespread impact of the crisis prompts people to reflect deeply on the causes of the crisis. In essence, the crisis is the consequences of nonbalanced development in trade, finance and other aspects of different economic entities. Since 1970s, the correlation between the developed economies (represented by the United States and Europe) and emerging economies (represented by China and India) is increasingly strengthened in the following way: developed economies tap on the advantages of 092 International Monetary to develop financial industry, while emerging economies rely on their endowments to promote manufacturing industry. Based on their growth pattern, developed economies import heavily and form trade deficit, while emerging economies export heavily and form trade surplus; the excessive investment of developed economies is due to excessive consumption and currency inflows, in the mean time, the outflow of funds of emerging economies results from excessive savings and foreign exchange earnings . The above correlation gradually enhances the common interests of countries in the world, but the non-equilibrium feature of this correlation has fermented this crisis. When the families, businesses and government in developed economies take on the excessive growth of debt and over-virtualization of financial services, the potential risks of nonequilibrium in global economy will be brought out in the form of financial crisis. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, developed economies and emerging economies have all adopted active fiscal and monetary policies. However, the former mainly promote the growth of real economy by WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG development. The core of reshaping the economic order between Asia and the United States and Europe is Sino-US cooperation. financial recovery, and the latter is more focused on the implementation of stimulating policies to directly drive solid economic recovery. The global economy is in the crucial period of restructuring to break the old balance and find the new balance. For Asia, China, Japan, Korea, India and other countries promote the pragmatic cooperation externally and implement stimulating policies internally in response to crisis. Asian countries not only realize the steady economic recovery firstly, but also play an important role to facilitate global economic recovery. Asia currently is in the "post-crisis era" of recovery, but the stability and sustainability of the recovery still should be strengthened, and uncertainty responded effectively. The sustainability of the recovery in Asia is affected by many factors: whether its economic policy can make U.S. out of the plight of “jobless growth", whether the debt crisis in Greece and other countries will "drag" the global recovery, whether different countries can form a tacit understanding in the implementation of stimulating policies. In response to the internal and external challenges to achieve robust economic recovery, Asian countries must strengthen cooperation, reflect upon growth patterns and accelerate economic restructuring with long-term development. Asian countries should reinforce the foundation of economic recovery by multi-dimensional reconstruction to form a new dynamic mechanism of sustainable prosperity. Firstly, reconstruction of the Asian economic order should seek and remodel a new balance with the United States and Europe. In the process of rebalancing the global economy, the trade pattern of “consumption in U.S. and Europe, production in Asia" and the capital structure of "debt in U.S. and Europe, savings in Asia" needs to be re-examined. China and U.S. play important roles in the Asian and global economic As the origin of financial crisis, the United States should strengthen financial supervision to enhance the stability of economic growth, increase domestic savings to rationalize consumption, expand exports to reduce the imbalance of international trade, and especially increase the exports of technologyintensive products to emerging economies by job creation. As one of the victims of financial crisis, China should form a more sustainable and inclusive growth pattern by reconstructing be formed by developing a more inclusive way of transformation and continuous growth, stimulate domestic consumption to reinforce the internal foundation, and increase international trade profit margins by optimizing industrial structures so as to carry out positive interaction with developed economies, like the United States at a higher level. In order to optimize the external environment and promote global development, Asia should strive to promote the suitable adjustment of international monetary system. Changing the dollar standard international monetary system is not realistic, but examining the current effectiveness of the international monetary system and exploring new ways of international financial cooperation is both necessary and feasible. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, with International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the G20 financial summit as a platform, the influence of China, India and other countries is increasing in the international financial cooperation, and the United States has issued a bill of financial regulation. The financial crisis has weakened the halo of Wall Street as a leading financial center, and the debt crisis of Greece also has a negative impact on the financial center of Europe. Therefore, the important financial function of Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul Asian cities is gaining. Along with the strong economic recovery in Asia and the continuing integrity of the system, the continental transfer and multi- trend of international financial centers is likely to be the reality. On the current terms, the international monetary system based on the dollar standard is difficult to shake. U.S. government should regulate the U.S. monetary and fiscal policies to maintain stability of U.S. dollar for the sake of the long-term interests of U.S. and the world. On the long term, the global economic pattern is changing, particularly with the increasing of real economies in Asia. The Yuan, Japanese yen or the Asian cooperative currency will play a more active role in the international monetary system. A new model with "a super dollar standard and several powerful currencies" may emerge, which we need continue to observe and study. 093 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS The touch-stone of reconstructing the international monetary system in Asia is whether Asia could dynamically establish its exchange rate system and standard. Since the reform and opening-up, China’s economic development situation has advanced the reform of RMB exchange rate system in a timely manner. Recently, to balance the trade deficit and increase employment opportunities, the United States, together with other economies, has pressed China to appreciate its currency. However, research has hardly been for the statement that RMB exchange rate is undervalued. What’s more, the appreciation of RMB will not only make it difficult to change the trade imbalance between China and America, resist imported inflation and promote economic restructuring, but also generate welfare losses in trade, finance, reserves, dynamic and sovereignty. International experience also shows that: adjustment of exchange rate made out of the external pressure tends to harm those interests of the adjustor. In the context of reconstructing the international monetary system, China and other Asian countries should not be over-responsible for other economies but should promote cooperation and determine its own exchange rate system and standard based on its own strategy, and promote the exchange rate system reform and improvement under the guidance of initiative, incrementality and controllability. To re-balance the economies between Asia, the United States and European, Asian countries need not only the economic reconstruction of the international monetary system, but also the reconstruction of the economic connecting manner within the Asian region. An integrated Asian economy can enhance the discourse power of Asia with Europe and the United States, and a collaborative Asia can weaken the economic dependence on Europe and the United States. Currently, Asian countries need to build consensus, enhance cooperation, inhibit the protectionism from the United States and Europe relying on the combined strength, and avoid Asian economic downturn and sharp drop of trade growth rate. Asian countries should utilize their diversity and significant differences to fully exploit their resources, bring their comparative advantages into play effectively, and gradually transfer its industrial structure within the region. Moreover, the region economies where conditions are ripe should take the lead in promoting the industrial structure. Meanwhile, Asian countries should strengthen the signal function of element markets, reduce the transaction cost of factor mobility, lead restructuring and aggregation of elements, and thereby optimize the industrial division of labor within the region and excavate the potential of their investment needs. Taking into account the capital drive function on the real economy, Asia should enhance the recognition and prevention 094 capabilities of internal and external financial risk, strengthen monetary cooperation within the region on the basis of promoting supervision and try to build "Asian Currency Unit" coupled with the regional connection. The crisis sparks backlash on China’s economy. To cope with the economic meltdown, China not only released a stimulus package to halt the speedy decline, but highlights the importance of speeding up the transition of growth mode that is considered force of sustainability. The transformation of China’s economy is diversified, systematic and interrelated, with its core being accelerating the economic growth, which had been heavily dependent on investment in export and should in the future rely on the coordination between consumption and export. The goal is to consolidate internal infrastructure by means of adjustment in driving force; to raise its competitiveness by means of industrial restructuring; to enhance the sustainability of growth by means of factor adjustment. China should restructure the income distribution between the government and its citizens, between the central and the local governments, and between citizens. A combination of policy should be employed to narrow down the income gap in rural and urban areas and in various trades. The government should perfect the income guarantee system specially designed for low-income groups and farmers, take the responsibilities in housing, medical care, and general education and provide a favorable environment that encourages consumption. All the above measures lay a solid foundation for a more liberal growth mode. Energy and environment is of great importance to sustained economic growth. The restructure in Asia should take into consideration alternative energies and low-carbon economy that serve as engines in economic growth. Asia accelerates its growth with high energy consumption and severe ecodegrading, which would, in the long run, not only be unable to prop up the growth but jeopardize the welfare of mankind. In this sense, to develop new energies and low carbon economy in a progressive way is the key to Asia’s development in response to outer pressure. However, Asian countries are growing in different stages and their capability of developing new energies and low-carbon economy varies greatly. Take China and India for an example. Overstated environmental obligations may provoke dramatic fluctuation in the economy of the two countries especially when in an accelerating stage of industrialization and urbanization. The principle of common but differentiated responsibility should be a good choice for Asian countries in promoting energy efficiency, environment protection, and active cooperation. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG Japan and Korea should reduce due amount of emission in accordance with their developing stage and should provide capital and technical support for other countries. China and India, as responsible major powers, should propose the roadmap and schedule of emission cut. What’s more, they should find a balance between economic growth and lowcarbon development, which requires technical innovation for alternative energies as well as market support to upgrade the industrial structure. As the factor mobility increases and population concentration heightens, Asian countries, especially developing ones, are undergoing an urbanization process never experienced before. Such a process will irreversibly reshape the socioeconomic structure of Asian nations and their bilateral relations. Urbanization, bearing the double-edge effect of promoting economic growth and causing derivative problems, prompts Asian countries to crystallize the lessons learned and to explore the optimized approach to city development in order to form a beneficial balance among city growth, economic prosperity, social advancement and livelihood improvement. Expo 2010 Shanghai, themed “Better City, Better Life”, while providing a platform showcasing economic prosperity, innovations of science and technology, remodeling of communities and blending of diverse cultures in the city, also offers an opportunity for further consideration into the experience, challenges, courses and approaches in urban development. The Expo brings to Asia not only new products and inventions, but also original ideas and values. Apart from the increase of urban population in sheer numbers and its percentage in the total, the development of Asian cities should also be mirrored in the optimization of industrial structure, amelioration of urban residence, improvement in service capacity and higher efficiency in the administration process. Only by achieving the above mentioned goals can Asian cities effectively avert the pitfalls and respond to the challenges that may appear in the growing process. Economic growth, social integration and scientific innovation can be promoted by industrial clustering effect, the interactive effect of information and market-driven effect respectively, and therefore the goal of improving people’s livelihood and well-being will be achieved. With the economic growth and the continuous improvement in medical systems, Asia is now stepping into the aging society in a speedy, universal and irreversible manner, indicating Asia has made great achievements in economic growth and social transformation. Meanwhile, an aging society poses huge pressure on social security, welfare, stability and safety. Developing nations such as China and India will lose some of its edge as they no longer boast abundant and cheap labor force. Asia countries should tackle the population issue with discretion where institutional, organizational and political efforts should be counted upon for a better adaptation to the aging society. China’s family planning policy has achieved greatly since the Reform and Opening Up. The country should take into consideration the differences existing in regions and groups in its gradual adjustment of the family planning policy for the aging society in the future to come. Meanwhile, China should also invest in human resources to improve productivity, ameliorate factor markets to encourage mobility, and continue the reform of household registration system particularly so as to accelerate the transition of farmers’ occupational identities, thus gradually actualizing the integration of migrant population into urban areas in economic and social terms. For Asian countries like China, economic growth has to be the cornerstone for the advancement of elderly care, medical care, education and other social security systems. And a sharing society should be the driving force to further carry out the citizen’s lifelong health project and build up a system of social governance and public policies in accordance with the aging society in the future. The economic recovery and social development in Asia are not isolated events. Their prerequisite is political stability and cultural integration. Currently the US-Asia Alliance and Expansion is basically finalized and Asia is playing an ever-important role in restructuring international relations. In particular, China’s capability of agenda arrangement is greatly strengthened in Sino-US relationship with its economic growth and less dependence on US. Based on the constant adjustment of international relations, Asian countries, especially the main economies, should promote exchange and coordination, thereby playing a more active role on the international political stage. Furthermore, they should also establish the platform for cooperation and exchange to consolidate the South Asia cooperative mechanism like ASEAN, to strengthen East Asian interactive relations represented by partnerships of China, Japan and South Korea, and to encourage North Korea’s active participation into international society. With the reinforcement of economic globalization, social relevancy and political interaction, it is for sure that Asian countries will have more and more cultural exchange among themselves. Economic integration optimizes resource distribution while cultural uniformity dampens social vitality. Economy develops in order of time while there’s no discrimination in terms of culture. Therefore, Asia’s economic development should never do harm to cultural heritage. Likewise, economic and political cooperation should not 095 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS share the achievements to form a multi-dimensional restructuring system. China, Japan, South Korea and India should take more responsibilities in promoting Asia’s restructuring. Meanwhile, Asian countries should focus on development mode transformation and economic restructuring, promoting restructuring on the basis of progressiveness, negotiation, controllability and dynamics with proactive and stable steps. Restructuring forms a joint force which drives development. In the post-crisis era, Asian countries are well aware of the importance of restructuring and adjustment and the necessity of cooperation and coordination. The change in mindset and firm action will guarantee that Asia’s multi-dimensional restructuring is not only a common vision but also a feasible plan. Everyone is looking forward to Asia’s stable recovery and sustainable development, which will increase living standards and contribute substantially to the world’s economic development and social prosperity. be carried out at the cost of cultural diversity. It is always an important principle to combine economic convergence and cultural diversification regarding the all-round development of Asia. Besides, it is also rational to pay respect to history and promote more understanding and integration to help contribute to the cultural prosperity of Asia. The world order is changing rapidly and the regional situation is becoming more complex than ever. Against the backdrop of rebalancing the global economic order, Asia has taken the lead in recovery, but such a recovery is unstable and may not sustain. Asia should restructure in economics, politics, social affairs and culture. The world pattern determines that our mere solution lies in restructuring. The restructuring of Asia is difficult because the process involves multiple subjects, manifold goals and several restraints. However, restructuring is urgent as it ensures Asia’s coordinated and continuous development. In response to the challenge, Asian countries should demonstrate their courage and wisdom in cooperation to promote multidimensional restructuring, which is the only way out. Difficulty should not postpone Asia’s restructuring. Complexity especially requires Asia to sensibly choose its restructuring route. The driving force of Asia’s restructuring lies in Asian countries and their citizens, who will in turn enjoy the benefits of restructuring. The development phase, strategic goals and national conditions are different in Asian countries. Therefore, restructuring should be based on the principle of “seeking common ground on major issues while reserving differences on minor ones” and “generalization with exceptions”. Asian countries should make joint efforts to reach a consensus in order to perfect the mechanism and 096 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 上海论坛 共识 （2011 ） 亚洲选择：以全球视野参与全球治理 2011年，亚洲各国在世界经济缓慢复苏的背景下 却表明，与市场失灵一样，政府也会失灵。过度地依靠 探求着自己的复苏、发展和繁荣之路。尽管2007年至 政府干预经济，短期内会阻止经济衰退，并帮助经济从 2008年的全球金融风暴和2008年至2009年的世界经济 衰退中复苏。但从长期看，如果政府投资大规模地替代 衰退对全球化进程产生了一定的影响，但全球化的大趋 私人投资，会导致政府债务不断积累。过度宽松的货币 势不可逆转。亚洲未来的经济社会发展，也离不开全球 政策，又必然会导致通货膨胀,并催生资产泡沫，甚至 化以及与世界其他国家和地区的贸易与合作。 会产生主权债务危机问题。政府对市场的过度干预，在 摆脱贫穷，谋求发展，多年来一直是亚洲人民共 长期中会阻碍市场经济的自我修复，影响一个国家的长 同的心愿。日本战后经济的迅速复苏，亚洲四小龙的兴 期竞争力。因此，政府在市场中的作用和定位，目前已 旺繁荣，中国和印度的近年崛起，都说明亚洲各国和 成为世界各国政府、学界和社会各界所需要重新思考的 地区始终在寻找适合自身繁荣发展的富强之路。亚洲之 一个理论和现实问题。无论是发展中国家的经济发展， 路，是富强之路，也是探索之路、改革之路、创新之 还是发达国家的金融危机的治理，无论在亚洲，还是在 路。一般认为，二十世纪七十年代以来亚洲经济的快速 其他地区，都需要重新审视政府在市场经济中的作用， 发展，乃至2008年至2009年世界经济衰退后亚洲新兴 及政府与市场的关系问题。 市场经济国家的迅速复苏和高速经济增长，主要得益于 与上个世纪世界经济的大环境不同的是，这次全 政府的“援助之手”。尤其是自2007年全球金融风暴 球金融危机和世界经济衰退，发生在一个更为开放、市 以来，在中国政府的财政刺激经济计划和宽松的货币政 策促动下，政府和国有部门投资大量增加，确保了在全 球经济衰退下中国经济9%以上的速率高速增长,对亚洲 和世界经济复苏起到了重要作用。这使当今国际学界、 商界、政界乃至社会各界更加重视政府在市场经济中的 作用。2008年以来，西方各国政府为救市而采取了极 其宽松的财政政策和货币政策，也促使这些国家较快走 出了经济衰退。其结果是：各国越来越强调政府对市场 的干预与作用。然而，当代世界各国的经济社会发展史 097 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS 场分工更为细化的经济日趋全球化的时代。在当今全球 得到了进一步加强。在未来中日韩考虑建立三国之间自 化的大背景中，如果各国政府仅仅考虑本国的利益而 由贸易区时，应考虑以下三个可能的选择：（１）在三 独立制定政策，必然会产生种种矛盾，无法达到预期 国进行商品和服务贸易，以及在投资、贷款和证券投资 的效果。譬如，美国的量化宽松货币政策和积极的财 等方面，应以三国自己的货币进行结算；（２）为了促 政政策，虽然有助于美国经济的快速复苏，到目前为止 进中日韩三国之间的长期贸易、直接投资和劳动分工， 也没有给美国国内造成通货膨胀问题，但在全球化的背 中日韩应该考虑维持建立在三国购买力平价基础上的真 景下，却导致美元作为国际货币全球流动和泛滥，引致 实币值，这样会更有助于改善外部的贸易不平衡的状 了石油等全球大宗商品的价格和农产品价格的不断上 况；（３）中日韩三国应该采取一致政策，以应对来自 涨，加上世界其他国家的政府为应付经济衰退而采取的 外部的短期资本流入所可能带来的经济波动，但却应该 积极宏观政策，导致许多发展中国家目前面临着巨大的 欢迎长期的资本流入和流出。 通货膨胀压力和资产泡沫问题。因此，在目前的后危机 近些年来，美国政府更加重视亚洲，加大了与东 时代，迫切需要世界各国政府在全球视野下来共同探讨 盟国家的交往、合作与政策协调。我们希望美国在本 全球治理结构问题，并加强各国之间的沟通、协调与合 地区的合作与发展中发挥积极的、建设型的作用。今 作，以建立合作、开放、共赢的世界经济秩序。 年以来，中美关系出现了改善的势头，两国加强了在 这次全球金融风暴和世界衰退使人们认识到，加 地区事务上的对话与磋商，这对维持地区的稳定至关 强政府对市场和金融系统的监管，制定出更加完备的法 重要。虽然在亚洲地区仍然存在领土争端，但求同存 律法规来调节和规范市场的运行，是世界各国所共同面 异，共谋发展符合各国的根本和长远利益。在新的形 临的问题，在这些方面，目前仍需各国共同努力。但 势下，东亚地区安全结构、政治结构和经济结构都在 是，政府监管需要加强并不意味着政府管得越多越好， 发生重要变化，值得我们密切关注。 节 能 减 排 是 当 政府参与市场越多越好，更重要的是要改革政府监管和 前全球经济合作的一个重要问题，在亚洲地区更为重 调控经济的方式。政府更多地应是市场运行规则的制定 要。由于日本大地震所引发的核电厂放射性物质泄漏 者、完善者和监管者，而并不是市场运行的直接参与 危机，使人们不得不对能源安全进行更为审慎的思 者。在完善对市场运行的法律法规和强化规则监管的同 考。如何有效降低核能的潜在风险，改进核设施的设 时，各国政府更应该促进市场化进程，包括促进金融资 计和操作，将成为今后一个时期各国特别重视和研究 源配置的更加开放和更加市场化。目前，要特别强调法 的问题。这次上海论坛的一个共识是，要在保持亚洲 治政府和民主预算，让法律成为同时规范市场行为和政 各国经济高速增长的前提下，促进亚洲国家低碳化发 府行为的准绳。这对于东亚关系型社会尤为重要。要增 展的进程，进一步提高碳减排政策的有效性。这不仅 加亚洲各国之间的地区合作，加强各国之间在政府作用 需要在政府主导的政策框架下引入市场机制来实现各 定位、金融监管方面的相互学习、交流和合作。要在区 国的节能减排，而且需要加快低碳技术研究，重点在 域贸易自由化和投资自由化的基础上，推进新的国际货 于加强新技术的推广和应用，包括推广使用工业减排 币体系的改革和建设。 技术，建设新能源电力产业与智能电网，设立建筑行 在地区合作方面，亚洲尤其是东亚出现了新的趋 势。在东盟和中日韩良好合作的基础上，中日韩三国之 间的合作正稳步推进，合作领域不断拓展，机制化建设 098 业的低碳发展标准，降低交通运输业的碳排放，并加 强节能减排技术政策制定方面的国际合作。 这次世界经济衰退的一个主要原因在于当前不合 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 理的国际货币体系。基于以美元为中心的国际货币体系 正考验着亚洲各国政府的管理和治理能力。许多国家 在短期内不可能发生结构性变化的事实，必须寻找到内 正处于社会转型或体制转轨阶段，带来一系列社会问 生性的约束机制来确保以美元为本位的国际货币体系的 题。全球金融风暴更使得一些国家的经济与社会发展陷 安全运行。为此，在国际层面上，以国际货币基金组织 入停滞，从而为国家未来的发展不断提出新的难题。 为中心，改革特别提款权的构成与功能，使之成为抑制 近年来，亚洲国家开始对各国的发展模式进行新的反思 美元全球泛滥的防火墙，作为第三方参与美元本位竞 与探索。亚洲正在开拓国际反恐、海上安全、气候变化 争，从内在机制上有效约束美元的过剩供给。在区域层 等方面合作的新领域。我们应该清醒地认识到不同国家 面上，要通过增强贸易相关国的货币互换，从区域及国 的国情和文化历史背景，要在和平、稳定的前提下，本 家集团的角度来创造一种可以与美元相竞争的货币流通 着互利、共赢的原则，实现均衡、公平、可持续的共同 环境，借以减缓来自于美元过多供给的流动性冲击。在 发展。这是亚洲未来合作应有的命题。可以相信，通过 国家层面上，美国作为发钞国，应该承担更多的国际责 亚洲人民的共同努力，一定能够建设一个更加繁荣、和 任与义务。值得注意的是，针对金融危机期间美国金融 谐的新亚洲。通过亚洲国家积极参与全球治理机构的改 监管体系存在的各种问题，2010年7月21日美国总统奥 革，一个更加开放、公平、繁荣的国际新秩序一定会在 巴马正式签署了《多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和个人消费 全球形成。 者保护法案》。此法案实施，会给金融行业带来什么样 的影响，需要进一步观察和研究。 亚洲各国处在人口转变的不同阶段。发展中国家 大量劳动年龄人口的存在，在产生人口红利的同时，也 形成巨大的就业压力,人口老龄化的加速，引发不同国 家劳动力市场正在发生重要转折，并进而影响各国内部 乃至亚洲经济格局的转变。经济全球化加快了城市工业 化的进程，农村人口不断流向城市，大量资源集聚到一 些特大城市，使之成为吸纳就业和经济增长的中心。这 就需要各国政府通过一系列制度改革和政策措施，平衡 城乡发展，减少城市化发展的障碍，加大城市基础设施 的建设，大幅度改善公共服务品的质量和覆盖面，提升 对国际资本和国际市场的吸引力，形成包容性发展的城 市环境。对于中国来说，转变城市发展模式，逐步给予 外来人口与城市居民同等的公民福利待遇，完善住房等 公共政策，积极发展公共服务业，成为未来政府治理的 重点。 在亚洲各国内部，政府官员腐败、贫困、失业等 问题，引起了国内政局动荡，社会不安定因素增加， 099 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS (2011) The Choice of Asia: Global Governance with a Global Vision The year 2011 has seen Asian countries seeking their roads towards recovery, development and prosperity, against the backdrop of slow recovery of world economy. Though the 2007-2008 global financial turmoil and the 2008-2009 global recession has exerted some impact on the course of globalization, yet the general trend of globalization remains irreversible. The future socio-economic development of Asia, too, will be inseparable from globalization and its commerce and cooperation with other countries and regions across the world. Shaking off poverty and advancing economic development have long been the common aspiration of Asian peoples. The rapid economic recovery in postwar Japan, the prosperity of the Asian tigers, and the rise of China and India in recent years, are all cases testifying to the unswerving efforts of Asian countries and regions to search for a road towards prosperity that suites their goal of development. The road of Asia is one of prosperity, of exploration, of reform, and of innovation. It’s generally believed that the rapid development of Asian economies since the 1970s, and the rapid recovery and high- 100 speed growth of the emerging market economies in Asia after the 2008-2009 global recession, are all credited to the "helping hand" of governments. Especially since the outbreak of the global financial turmoil in 2007, under the motivation of Chinese government’s fiscal stimulus program and easy monetary policies, the government and state sectors have substantially increased their investments to secure growth rates higher than 9% during the global economic downturn, which in the meanwhile has played an important role in the revival of Asian and world economy. Those measures have also called more attention of the current international academic, business and political circles to the role of government in a market economy. Since 2008, the bail-out measures implemented by the governments of Western countries in the form of very loose fiscal and monetary policies have also helped take these countries out of recession quickly. As a result, all countries are attaching increasingly more emphasis on governmental intervention and its role in the market. However, the history of socio-economic development in modern nations has demonstrated that there might be government failure, just like the WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG market failure. In the short run, over-reliance on governmental intervention can hold back recession and help the recovery, but in the long run, a largescale substitution of government investment for private-sector investment will lead to the continued accumulation of government debts. At the same time, over-loose monetary polices will inevitably lead to inflation and asset bubbles, or even sovereign debt crisis. The excessive government intervention is detrimental to the self-healing ability of the market economy, causing negative impact on a country's long-term competitiveness. Therefore, the role and positioning of government in the market has become a theoretical and practical issue which needs to be rethought by the governments, academic circles, and all communities across the world. Whether the economic development of developing countries or the financial crisis management in developed countries, and whether in Asia or in other regions, it is imperative to re-examine the government's role in a market economy and the relationship between government and market. The current global financial crisis and world economic recession happened in an era different from the last century. Now we face a more open era of economic globalization with more elaborated market division. In the context of globalization, if each nation makes policies solely according to its own interest, many contradictions will appear and the expected outcome is difficult to achieve. For example, the quantitative expansionary monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy implemented by the U.S. government contributes to the rapid recovery of its economy without causing domestic inflation so far, but these policy measures result in excess liquidity all around the world and increasing prices of staple commodities such as oil and agricultural goods as well. Moreover, proactive macroeconomic policies adopted by other countries in the world to tackle economic recessions lead to huge inflation pressure and serious asset bubbling in their domestic economy. Therefore, in the post-crisis era, it is urgent for all nations to discuss global governance structure in a global perspective and strengthen communication, coordination and corporation to establish a new cooperative, open and win-win world economic order. The global financial storm and world economic recession have made it clear that it is required for governments to strengthen regulation on market and financial system, to formulate more complete laws to adjust the functioning of the market. But government regulation does not mean that the more intervention, the better. Governments should reform their methods of regulation and control, and act as the formulator of market rules who perfects and supervises them, instead of being direct participants in the market. Meanwhile, governments also have obligation to promote the process of marketization, including the liberalization of financial resources allocation. Currently, rule-of-law governments and democratic budget should be emphasized to let laws be the criteria for both market and government behavior. This is particularly crucial for relationshipbased societies in East Asia. It is necessary for Asian countries to enhance regional cooperation, and to learn from each other as regards government orientation and financial regulation. It is essential to advance the reforms and construction of a new international monetary system on the basis of regional trade and investment liberalization. In terms of regional cooperation, there is a new trend in Asia, especially in East Asia. On the basis of good cooperation between ASEAN, Japan, South Korea and China, the cooperation between these three countries has witnessed steady progress; fields of cooperation have been expanded; the mechanism construction has been further strengthened. If a free trade area is to be built between Japan, South Korea and China in the future, the following three possible options should be considered: (1) The settlement of merchandise and service trade, investment, loans and securities investment should be based on their own currencies; (2) In order to promote the longterm trade, direct investment and the division of labor between them, the three countries should consider maintaining the real exchange rates based on purchasing power parity, which will also help improve the external trade balance; (3) Japan, South Korea and China should take the same policy to deal with the potential short-term economic fluctuations resulted from capital inflows, but welcome the longterm capital inflows and outflows. In recent years, the U.S. government has been paying more attention to Asia, and has increased exchanges, cooperation and policy coordination with ASEAN countries. We hope that the United States can play an active and constructive role in the cooperation and development of this region. Since the beginning of this year, the improvement of Sino-U.S. relations has been gaining momentum. The two countries have increased dialogues and consultations on regional matters, which is essential for maintaining regional stability. While there are still territorial disputes in Asia, the fundamental and long-term interest of every country lies in seeking common ground and common development. In the new situation, the security, political and economic structures in Eastern Asia have undergone major changes, which deserve our close attention. Energy saving and emission reduction is an important issue in the current global economic cooperation, and even more important in Asia. Japan’s nuclear 101 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS crisis, caused by the leakage of radioactive material from nuclear power plants after a major earthquake, prompt people to be more cautious about energy security. How to reduce the potential risks of nuclear energy and how to improve the design and operation of nuclear facilities? These questions will receive special attention and be studied in the coming period in different countries. One consensus of Shanghai Forum 2011 is that while maintaining the high speed of economic growth, efforts should be made by Asian countries to promote low carbonization and to further enhance the effectiveness of carbon reduction policies. This requires not only the introduction of market mechanisms within the framework of policy guidance by the government to achieve energy conservation, but also research on low-carbon technologies. The focus is to strengthen the promotion and application of new technologies, including promoting the use of industrial emissions reduction technology, construction of new energy power industry and smart grids, establishment of standards for low carbon development in the construction industry, reducing carbon emissions from transportation, and strengthening international cooperation in the policy-making concerning energy saving technology. One of the main reasons for this world economic recession is the current irrational international monetary system. In view of the fact that it will not be possible for the dollar-centered international monetary system to undergo structural changes in the short term, we must find the endogenous binding mechanism to ensure safe operation of the dollar-based international monetary system. For this reason, at the international level, IMF should play the central role to reform the composition and function of the SDR, turning it into the firewall to inhibit U.S. dollar from global spreading, and encouraging it to compete with the dollar standard as a third party, thus effectively constraining the surplus supply of the U.S. dollar via internal mechanism. At the regional level, through strengthening traderelated currency swaps, we should create a rival to the U.S. dollar currency environment from the perspective of regional and national groups in order to mitigate the liquidity shock as a result of excessive supply of dollars. At the national level, the United States, as a note-issuing country, should shoulder more international responsibilities and obligations. It should be noticed that aiming at the various problems in the U.S. financial regulatory system during the financial crisis, the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act was signed into law by President Barack Obama on July 21, 2010. What impact the implementation of this Act will bring to the financial industry needs further observation and investigation. 102 Asian countries are at different stages of demographic transition. There is a large workingage population in developing countries, generating the demographic dividend as well as a tremendous employment pressure. Accelerated aging of the population causes the undergoing major turning point in labor markets of different countries, and thus affects the economic patterns within countries and even across Asia. Economic globalization has speeded up the process of urban industrialization. The rural population continues to flow to cities and a large amount of resources are gathered to several megalopolises, making them the center of creating new jobs and promoting economic growth. This requires governments, through a series of institutional reforms and policy measures, to balance urban and rural development, to reduce obstacles to urbanization, to increase urban infrastructure construction, to improve the quality and coverage of public services products and to enhance the attraction to the international capital and the international market, forming the city environment of inclusive development. As for China, transforming the patterns of urban development, gradually giving city immigrants the same citizen benefits as city residents, improving housing and other public policies, and actively developing public services, are among the priorities of government administration. The domestic problems of Asian countries, such as corruption, poverty and unemployment, have caused political upheaval and increased social instability, testing the management and governing capacity of Asian countries. Many countries are in the phase of social transformation or system transition, which brings about a series of social problems. The global financial crisis further brings some countries into the stagnation of social development and therefore put forward new problems for future development. Recently, Asian countries start new reflection and exploration of development models. Asia is expanding new fields of cooperation in international anti-terrorism, offshore safety, climate change etc. We should notice the differences in national conditions as well as cultural and historical backgrounds among countries, and realize balanced, justified and sustainable mutual development on the basis of peace, stability and the principle of mutual benefit and common interest. We are convinced that with the joint efforts of all Asian people, we can establish a more prosperous and harmonious new Asia. With the active participation of Asian countries in the reform of global governance structure, we can be sure that a more open, fair and prosperous new international order will emerge. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 上海论坛共 识（ 2012） 坚持亚洲合作与创新，推动发展转型， 创造繁荣发展 金融和经济危机正以新的表现方式在全球各地发 危机的触发机制是最终债务人（美国次级信用购房借款 酵，世界各国虽制度禀赋各异但同受其患。危机使世界 人）的普遍违约。危机发生后，世界各国的政府有两种 经济地理发生显著变化，亚洲在世界经济政治体系中 选择：拒绝救市，那么危机就有可能演变成为萧条，这 的地位和作用不断凸显，对世界经济增长的贡献与日俱 是各国人民所无法接受的；为了避免萧条就必须救市。 增。未来十年，亚洲的发展将在世界经济政治秩序重建 但是，政府为防止经济走向萧条采取救市的政策并不一 中发挥更大的作用，但亚洲自身也存在着诸多急需求解 定能增加就业，也可能无法激活民间投资，从而不得不 的难题。这就要求亚洲各国积极推进转型发展，加深、 依靠增加债务来获取救市所需要的资金。 丰富和改善亚洲内部的合作，为亚洲经济增长和文明进 面对不断深化的全球性金融与经济危机，迫切需 步提供新的可持续的动力。本次上海论坛着眼“未来十 要世界各国加强合作，共同采取理性的行动来解决有可 年的战略”，正是以此为主旨，为亚洲的整体发展，缓 能导致危机继续恶化的重大问题：通过有效的全球融 解世界困局，寻求智慧和共识。 资和必要的改革，消除主权债务危机的不利影响；通过 扩大市场开放度，推进贸易自由化；通过适度的资本管 一、未来十年世界和亚洲发展的基本态势 制，控制短期资本流动；通过教育发展和福利制度的改 我们认为，未来十年将是世界秩序和亚洲秩序的 革，增加社会与经济结构调整的弹性；通过激发企业家 深入调整期，也是亚洲力量整体崛起的重要历史机遇 信心，实现创新。 期,继续积极应对危机仍然是当前亚洲发展面临的基本 第二，改革国际货币体系促进世界经济秩序调整。 挑战。面对挑战，需要各国充分发挥政府作用，继续推 自2008年美国引发的全球金融危机爆发以后，深 进经济体制和货币体系改革，在能源等领域不断突破， 陷“特里芬两难”之困境的美元，在国际货币体系中所 探索属于亚洲的发展之路。 发挥的流动性、稳定性和主导性作用的平衡功能有所弱 第一，发挥各国政府对于亚洲危机的积极作用。 化;同时欧盟地区因为经济周期向下调整速度的加快， 本次危机起源于康德拉基耶夫式的长周期调整， 以及主权债务危机的恶化，从而让欧元也无法承担起世 103 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS 界所期待的由超主权货币所带来的支撑全球经济的“货 骤地推进。在目前的技术发展水平下，低碳经济仍然是 币锚”机制。 一种高成本经济，大部分处在工业化发展初级阶段的亚 在世界“货币锚”逐一消失的同时，主要发达国 洲国家仍然缺乏必要的投资和相应的收入水平来支撑对 家为挽救本国金融体系和实体经济不得不放任各种量化 高成本清洁能源的消费。因此亚洲的低碳转型首先应着 宽松的货币政策，从而导致了世界范围内的流动性泛 力于对现有的以化石能源为基础的能源供应体系进行清 滥。各种由短期投机套利行为引起的动荡不仅严重影响 洁化、低碳化的改造；其次才是从亚洲实际出发，在本 了世界经济的复苏进程，而且还重创了许多新兴市场经 国技术支撑、市场基础和制度设计日益完备的情况下迎 济体，这些国家因为不恰当的金融与货币政策成为国际 接发达国家的新能源革命浪潮。在此过程中，亚洲各国 游资的攻击对象，从而遭到了资产泡沫与通货膨胀的双 政府应致力于低碳技术、节能技术和新能源技术领域的 重打击。不仅如此，像中国这样拥有大量美元和欧元资 多边合作，建立常态化的资源环境政策协调机制，共同 产的东亚国家还面临着财富严重缩水的风险。基于以上 促进新能源产业、环保产业、节能型制造业的发展，增 事实，改革当前危机重重的国际货币体系就显得刻不容 强亚洲在能源等大宗商品领域中的定价权，避免增长红 缓且意义深远。 利的流失。资源环境安全不可分割，合则共利，分则俱 国际货币体系改革有两种可能的路径选择：一是 促使美元重新承担起世界公共品的功能——即为世界各 损。共利需要共识与合作。共识需要交流，合作需要坦 诚。亚洲各国需要这样的交流与坦诚。 国货币提供“货币锚”、为国际金融活动提供流动性和 稳定性功能；二是建立一个新的以“特别提款权”为本 二、未来十年亚洲发展的战略性选择 位的世界货币体系——即将现有的国际货币体系推倒重 未来十年，经济社会结构的大幅调整及地区经济 来。有必要指出的是，不管是以维持当今美元为主导的 关系重构，将是亚洲发展的重大主题之一，亚洲也将因 国际货币体系为改革切入点，还是以更能反映新兴市场 此在未来的世界体系中发挥更大的作用。为了更好地促 国家利益的储备资产“SDR机制化”为改革方向，达成 进未来十年亚洲的发展，一是要推动亚洲不同国家的发 全球共识和强化国际政策协调都是首要条件。 展转型，各个国家应根据所处的不同发展阶段推动自身 第三，有效突破能源约束推动经济增长。 结构性转型，并构成亚洲的整体性发展转型；二是要推 随着亚洲经济迅速发展，亚洲能源需求急剧增 动亚洲国家间的合作，努力形成更加具有主导型和互补 加，其区域内能源供给却未能跟上经济增长的步伐。 性的区域合作机制；三是推动亚洲领先城市和地区的技 从供给角度来看，亚洲的能源既有总量短缺的问题， 术创新，以此带动亚洲经济增长和产业结构体系的合理 又有结构失衡的问题。亚洲国家在能源消费和供给上 构造，特别是通过不断创新，促进新兴战略产业的培育 的这种失衡使得亚洲经济增长中的能源需求必须通过 和成长，推动区域产业分工格局的重塑。 外部市场来加以平衡。但是，外部世界提供的能源环 境并不友好。时至今日，我们可以清楚地看到，愈演 104 实现十年亚洲的繁荣发展和可持续的经济增长， 亚洲国家需要从以下几个方面作出不懈的努力： 愈烈的国际能源市场的金融投机，再加上对高碳能源 第一是充分利用人口红利。亚洲国家人口状况的 之使用严格加以限制的政策不断推出，已经造成了亚 基本特征是总量规模大，并存在巨大的国别差异。亚洲 洲经济增长的红利大规模地流向具有能源金融优势和 不同国家人口结构的变化会导致整个亚洲经济版图的重 新能源技术优势的国家，以及非煤炭类的能源出口 置，全球制造加工业极有可能逐步向劳动力更为低廉的 国。这对于大部分正在展开工业化的亚洲国家是不可 中国内地以及越南、老挝等东南亚国家转移。 忽视的重大挑战。与此同时，气候变化的风险评估显 面对区域内人口结构与随之而来的经济结构的变 示，由于亚洲农业人口众多、农业集约化生产水平低 化，亚洲国家应当作何反应才是可取的呢？作为人口还 以及土地、水、能源等自然资源匮乏，气候变化对于 在高速增长的南部亚洲国家来说，充分利用现有的人口 亚洲的影响将显著高于其他地区。 红利是理性的选择；对于已经或者正在走向人口老龄化 为了有效应对这种挑战，亚洲国家必须选择一条 的东亚国家来说，则应对现有的劳动与福利制度加以改 适合亚洲实际情况的能源发展道路。就亚洲大部分国家 革，借以达到增加劳动供给的目的。与此同时，还要通 仍然处在工业化发展阶段而言，低碳路线必须要在动态 过发展教育特别是终身教育，提高供给总量趋于下降的 考量经济、社会总体成本、收益的前提下分阶段、有步 劳动者的生产率，以便通过劳动效率对劳动数量的替代 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 来维持可持续的增长。 第二是充分利用城市化红利。基于规模经济的工 选择国际“软法”治理模式，当然还可以是上述两者有 效结合的混合模式。 业生产具有空间集聚的内生性要求，因此工业化必定会 促进亚洲合作，需要亚洲各国在世界和亚洲秩序 带来城市化的发展。推进城市化发展不仅是工业活动的 调整中积极有效地管理矛盾和冲突，排除各种有可能加 内在需要，也是创造需求、实现经济可持续发展的必要 剧矛盾的干扰，尊重各国的重大利益，协调各国发展策 条件。亚洲的城市化红利仍然非常丰厚，但是，问题就 略，为亚洲发展创造和平和稳定的内外环境。世界和亚 在于亚洲国家通过怎样的城市化发展道路才能获得如此 洲长期发展的经验证明，平等积极真诚的合作，才能使 丰厚的城市化红利？ 亚洲各国各得其利并实现整体发展。 借鉴拉丁美洲国家城市化发展的失败经验，在城 市化发展进程中，亚洲国家需加强社会投资以推动城市 本次上海论坛代表一致认为，未来十年，亚洲处 的现代化转型。具体地，亚洲各国政府应继续增加城市 于一个关键的历史时期，亚洲发展比任何时期都需要 基础设施（特别是生产性基础设施）建设的投入，提供 维护地区和平、加强内部合作、推动城市化进程、促 更加有效的产业发展平台；应降低城市经济活动的社会 进区域经济社会全面可持续发展。在这个过程中，亚 与经济成本，创造更多的就业机会；应加强对教育、文 洲各国应坚持合作与创新，努力推动发展转型，进一 化、社会保障等项社会投资，促进城市文化转型和文化 步提升亚洲的地位和作用，创造一个属于亚洲的繁荣 整合；应提倡紧凑城市建设，提升城市的可持续发展能 发展的世纪！ 力；应推动人口自由流动，打破城乡人口流动的行政壁 垒。通过这些方式，既推进了城市化进程，又反过来促 进了经济制度的变革和转型，保障经济的快速、可持续 发展。 第三是充分利用制度创新红利。由于历史的、文 化的原因，亚洲各国的社会转型程度、速度不一，制 度创新的空间极其巨大，制度创新的红利还未得到有 效发掘。 从 20世纪50年代后半期开始，从 20世纪50年代后 半期开始，亚洲一些国家成功实现了社会转型。发生在 部分亚洲国家的这种社会变迁，为经济可持续发展与社 会持续进步提供了制度保障，也为那些尚未实现社会转 型的亚洲国家提供了有益参照。另一方面，导致亚洲企 业创新能力不足的主要原因在于文化与制度，因此，通 过社会文化与制度创新来激发企业家的创新精神，将成 为全面提升亚洲企业国际竞争力的关键所在。 三、亚洲的持续发展需要合作与和平 亚洲经济社会秩序的调整伴随着日益增强的内在 竞争和摩擦，这使得为了推进亚洲整体发展而言，维护 亚洲和平、促进区域合作显得尤其迫切。 随着经济全球化与区域经贸关系的不断深化，亚 洲国家非常有必要在经贸金融、民商事务、知识产权、 环境资源、司法协作等主要领域加强法律合作。为此， 亚洲国家有必要在区域金融和金融法律合作方面形成制 度化、常态化的多边机制，以稳定各国合作的预期。法 律合作的手段可以采取国际“硬法”治理模式，也可以 105 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS (2012) Stick to Cooperation and Creation, Push Transformational Development, and Create Asian Prosperity Financial and economic crisis is spreading all over the world, affecting every country despite their various systems. The crisis leads to vital changes in global economic map: Asia is playing a more and more important role in the global economic and political system, and has been making ever greater contributions to world economic growth. During 2011-2020, Asian development will surely play a more important part in the reconstruction of global economic and political order. However, Asia itself has many difficulties that need to be solved and that require Asian countries to positively promote structural transformational development, to deepen, enrich and improve cooperation among each other, and to provide new, sustainable force for Asian economic development and cultural progress. This year’s Shanghai Forum takes “Strategy for 2011-2020” as its theme, trying to seek wisdom and consensus for Asian development and global recovery. 106 1. Basic Situation of Global and Asian Development for 2011-2020 We think that 2011-2020 is a time for further adjustment of the global and Asian order, as well as a time for important opportunities for Asian rise, and to continue positively dealing with financial crises is still the basic challenge that Asia faces at present. The challenge requires every country to fully play its governmental function, to continue promoting reform of economic system and monetary system, to make more and more breakthroughs in fields like energy resources, etc. and to probe a way for Asian development. First of all, we should bring governmental function into full play. The root of this crisis is Kondratiev long-term adjustment, and the triggering mechanism is debtors’ (American sub-prime mortgage debtors) widespread breach of contract. After the explosion of WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG rescue financial system and real economy, which leads to proliferating global liquidity. The turbulence caused by various short-term speculative arbitrages not only gravely affects the recovery of global economy, but also heavily attacks many emerging economies. These countries become targets for international hot money because of improper financial and currency policies and suffer double blows of asset bubbles and inflation. Moreover, eastAsian countries like China that own large stock of U.S. dollar and Euro capital face the risk of serious shrinking wealth. Based on the above facts, it is high time that we reformed the current risk-ridden international monetary system. crisis, there are two choices that every government over the world has: one is to refuse to bail out the market, which may lead the crisis to depression, a consequence that people around the world cannot accept. To avoid depression, government needs to bail out the market. However, bail-out policy that government takes to protect economy from depression may not guarantee the increase of jobs and activate private investment, which means that government has to depend on increasing debts to gain capital for market bail-out. The deepening global financial and economic crisis urgently requires every country to enhance cooperation and to take rational action in order to solve grave problems which may cause the crisis to further deteriorate: to promote free trade through further opening-up of the market; to control short-term capital flow through moderate capital management; to strengthen the flexibility of social and economic structural adjustment through reform of education development and welfare system; to achieve innovation through stirring entrepreneurs’ confidence. Secondly, we should promote global economic order adjustment through reforming international monetary system. Since the breakout of global financial crisis starting in the United States in 2008, the flexibility, stability and leading balancing function of U.S. dollar in international monetary system has been weakened because it is deeply caught in the “Triffen Dilemma”; at the same time, because of the acceleration of downward adjustment of economic cycle in European Union and the deterioration of sovereign debt crisis, Euro cannot take on the “currency anchor” mechanism that the world expects supersovereign currency to maintain in order to support global economy. With the losses of global “currency anchors”, main developed countries have to let loose various quantitative easing monetary policies in order to There are two possible ways for the international monetary system reform: the first way is to enable U.S. dollar to retake its function as global product – to provide “currency anchor” for currencies around the world, to provide flexibility and stability function for international financial activities; the second way is to establish a new global currency system based on “special drawing right” – to push over the current international currency system and establish a new one. It is necessary to point out that to achieve global consensus and strengthen international policy coordination is the primary condition whether we choose to maintain the current international currency system led by U.S. dollar, or we choose the “SDR mechanism” of reserve assets which can better reflect emerging market countries’ profits. Thirdly, we should effectively break through restraints of energy resources and to promote economic growth. With the rapid development of Asian economy, Asia’s need for energy resources greatly increase, yet, the regional supply of energy resources fails to keep up with the pace of economic development. Looking from the supply angle, Asia’s energy resources suffer both shortage of total amount and imbalance of energy structure. The imbalance between Asian countries’ consumption of energy resources and supply of energy resources has to be solved through international market. However, the energy resources environment that international market provides is not friendly. Till today, we can clearly see that the severer monetary speculation in international energy resources market and the increasing number of carried out policies that strictly control the use of high-carbon energy resources have already led to the situation where a lot of profits created through Asian economic development flow to countries enjoying energy resources financial advantage, new energy technology advantage, and non-coal resources export. Such situation is a vital challenge that cannot be ignored for the majority of Asian countries that are developing through industrialization. At the same time, the risk assessment of climate change shows 107 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS that the impact of climate change upon Asia may be much higher than upon other regions because of large agricultural population, low intensive agriculture production level, and lack of natural resources such as land, water, energy, etc. In order to effectively face such challenge, Asian countries must choose a way for energy development that matches the practical condition in Asia. Due to the fact that the majority of Asian countries are still in the process of industrialization, the lowcarbon way should be pushed forward step by step under the condition of dynamic evaluation of economy, social overall cost and profits. Low-carbon economy is still a high-cost economy under current technology development level, and the majority of Asian countries that are in the primary stage of industrialization still lack essential investments and incomes to support their consumption for highcost clear energy. Therefore, Asia’s low-carbon transformation should start from reform to clean and low-carbonize the current fossil energy-based supply system; and the next step is to welcome the new energy revolution wave of developed countries, taking into account the Asian reality and the improvement of technology support, market foundation and system design. During this process, governments of Asian countries should endeavor to launch multi-lateral cooperation in low-carbon technology, energy saving technology, and new energy technology, to establish regularized resources environment policy coordination mechanism, to jointly promote the development of new energy industry, environmental friendly industry and energysaving manufacturing industry, to enhance Asia’s pricing power in the commodities like energy, etc., and to avoid the loss of growth dividend. Resources, environment and safety cannot be separated. Cooperation among Asian countries can yield mutual benefits, while separation can lead to mutual losses. To gain mutual benefit requires consensus and cooperation – consensus requires communication, and cooperation needs frankness. Asian countries need such communication and frankness. 2. Strategic Choices for Asian Development from 2011-2020 During 2011-2020, large-scale adjustment of economy society structure and reconstruction of regional economic relationship will be one of the important topics for Asian development, and as a result, Asia will play a more important role in future world system. To better promote Asian development from 2011-2020, we need first push forward structural transformational development of different Asian countries: Every Asian country should promote its structural transformation according 108 to its own development stage, and push forward the overall development transformation of Asia; secondly, we should promote cooperation among Asian countries, and try to establish complementary regional cooperation mechanism; thirdly, we should promote technological innovation of advanced cities and regions in Asia, thus promoting Asian economy development and construction of industry infrastructure, and moreover, we should enhance the growth and development of new strategic industries and promote the restructuring of the regional industries through continuous innovation. In order to achieve Asia’s prosperous development and sustainable economic increase for 2011-2020, Asian countries need to work hard in the following aspects: First of all, we should make full use of demographic dividend. The basic feature of Asian countries’ demographic condition is large population with huge differences among countries. Change of demographic structure of different Asian countries will lead to the reconstruction of the whole Asian economic map, and global manufacturing is highly possible to move step by step to places with cheaper labor forces such as mainland China, Vietnam, Laos and some other Southeast Asian countries. What action should Asian countries take in the face of demographic structure and change of economic structure within Asian regions? For Southern Asian countries where population grows rapidly, it is wise for them to make full use of their demographic dividend; for East Asian countries that have been facing the problem of aging population, they should reform current labor and welfare system in order to increase labor provision. At the same time, they should also improve labor productivity while decreasing its quantity through a life-long education, so as to achieve sustainable growth by enhancing quality rather than quantity of labor. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG Secondly, we should make full use of urbanization dividend. Industrial production based on scale economy has endogenous requirement for spatial agglomeration. Therefore, industrialization will surely bring about urbanization. To promote urbanization is not only an internal demand for industrial activities, but also an essential condition for innovation and sustainable economy development. Asia enjoys rich urbanization dividend. However, the problem is that what kind of urbanization Asian countries should take for such rich urbanization dividend. Learning from experience of failure of Latin American countries’ urbanization, Asian countries should set up more social investments for cities’ modernization transformation during the process of urbanization. Specifically, governments of Asian countries should continue increasing investments in city infrastructure (especially productive infrastructure) construction, and provide a more effective industry development platform; they should reduce social and economic cost for city life and create more job opportunities; they should increase investments in education, culture, social, security, etc., to promote urban culture transformation and culture integration; they should promote compact city construction and improve cities’ sustainable development; they should promote free flow of population and break the administrative barriers of population flow between cities and the countryside. Through the above ways, Asian countries can not only promote urbanization, but also push forward reform and transformation of economic system so that they can guarantee a fast and sustainable economic development. Thirdly, we should make full use of the system innovation dividend. Due to different historical and cultural backgrounds, Asian countries vary in their transformation degree and speed, which means that there is huge space for system innovation in Asia, and that the system innovation dividend has not been fully exploited yet. Starting from the second half of the 1950s, some Asian countries successfully achieve social transformation. Such change happening in some Asian countries provides system guarantee for sustainable economy development and continuous society progress, and provides useful reference models for those that have not achieved transformation yet. On the other hand, the main reason that leads to lack of innovation of Asian enterprises lies in culture and system. Therefore, to activate entrepreneurs’ innovation through culture and system innovation will become a key to the overall improvement of Asian enterprises’ international competitiveness. 3. Asia’s Sustainable Development Requires Cooperation and Peace The adjustment of Asian economic and social order is hand in hand with stronger and stronger inner competition and friction, which makes it an urgent task to safeguard peace and promote regional cooperation for Asian development. With the deepening of economic globalization and regional economic trade relationship, it is necessary for Asian countries to strengthen legal cooperation in some main fields such as economics, trade, finance, civil and commercial affairs, intellectual property, environmental resources and judicial collaboration. Therefore, Asian countries need to establish systematic, regularized multilateral mechanism in regional finance and financial laws cooperation for stable cooperation among countries. Means for legal cooperation can be international “hard law” mode, or “soft law” mode, or surely a mixed mode that effectively combines “hard law” and “soft law” together. To promote Asian cooperation requires every Asian country to positively and effectively handle conflicts during the process of adjustment of global and Asian order, to exclude interference that may intensify contradiction, to respect every country’s vital benefit, to harmonize every country’s development strategy, and to create peaceful and stable internal and external environment for Asian development. The experience of global and Asian long-term development proves that only through equal, positive and sincere cooperation can Asian countries achieve profits as well as overall development. Delegates of this year’s forum all agree that 20112020 is a critical period of time for Asia, during which Asia most needs to maintain regional peace, enhance inner cooperation, push forward urbanization, and promote sustainable development of regional economic and social progress. In this process, Asian countries should stick to cooperation and creation, try hard to push forward structural transformational development, promote Asia’s status and function in the world, and create a time for Asian development and prosperity. 109 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS 上海论坛 共识 （2013 ） 在多元中寻求共识，在和谐中实现发展 时代正发生着广泛而深刻的变化。亚洲应从历史 上推进亚洲地区与其他地区之间国际分工体系的进一步 和现实中充分汲取经验，利用自身的独特智慧和文化优 深化，同时，对内则通过完善市场规则和法律制度，提 势，克服前进中的障碍和困难，在差异中追寻共存与和 高自身的效率，提升对域外出口的竞争力。 谐发展。本届上海论坛以“亚洲智慧：在多元中寻求和 第二，面对实体经济的挑战和契机，亚洲国家应 谐发展”为主题，所有与会代表就重大的政治、经济、 通过加强广泛的合作，提升金融为实体经济服务的能 文化问题广泛讨论。亚洲智慧的核心是包容促团结、和 力，共同推动亚洲各国和地区的金融合作向着更深的层 谐创繁荣。 亚洲各国必须相互尊重并凝聚起智慧并将 次迈进，缓解东亚地区金融体系不稳定风险，增强抵御 之转化为促进经济与社会发展的理念、战略、制度、政 外部市场冲击的能力。 策与行动，实现经济社会可持续发展。 第三，要切实提升亚洲经济一体化水平，将亚洲 自由贸易区建设和区域金融货币合作所推动的亚洲区域 一、亚洲需要更具前瞻性地引领科技创新。 应对时代挑战的关键性因素是科技创新。亚洲各 国应洞察世界科技发展前沿，探索并引领新能源与信息 技术融合的技术路径与应用领域，建构符合本地区资源 禀赋特征的现代能源信息系统，将先进的理念、技术和 制度内化于本国或区域内的科技创新和产业发展，带动 新兴产业的成长，创造新的市场，催生新的增长点，促 进经济社会的持续发展。 二、亚洲需要更科学理性地推动经济复苏和发展。 第一，亚洲各国要继续与欧美等发达国家合作，在 WTO 国际贸易和投资规则框架下增加贸易，并从制度 110 内主要经济体进行产业重组作为主要抓手。 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 争端以及问题。同时，也应尝试推进部分民事法律在主 要国家的统一化，探索亚洲法律智慧的交融与和谐的新 途径。 五、亚洲需要更富韧性地推动地区和平稳定。 谋发展、促合作是当今亚洲的主流。解决当前存 在的纷争，要按照立足亚洲、多方借鉴，循序渐进、和 平自主，合作共赢、价值整合，以史为鉴、面向未来的 原则，尊重和遵循亚洲人民的共同意愿和福祉，以寻求 地区普遍和平、全面发展与繁荣为目的，致力于各类问 三、亚洲需要更积极稳健地探索管理制度变革。 第一，在亚洲地区迅速城市化的过程中，亚洲国 家需通过城市管理创新和社会体制创新，应对更加复杂 的城市管理和社会生活变迁带来的挑战，创造美好和高 品质的城市生活。 第二，面对以新媒体为标志的第四次传播革命， 亚洲各国政府应该与时俱进， 以开放心态应对网络信 息技术进步和社会的变迁，逐渐完善适合现代信息社会 的新闻传播规制与管理体系。 第三，亚洲各国需要通过合作研究和实践经验的 分享，寻求公平高效的解决方案，以应对人口老龄化与 慢性病给卫生系统乃至整个社会经济发展带来的挑战， 题的解决。 上海论坛 2013 与会代表普遍认为，面对欧美国家 纷至沓来的危机，亚洲正承担着越来越重要的责任。亚 洲的未来必将像历史和现实呈现出的一样多元多彩。历 史经验表明，亚洲的活力要真正在转化成亚洲崛起，就 需要全亚洲团结起来，在多元中寻求共识，在和谐中实 现发展。亚洲各国应充分尊重彼此差异，充分协调彼此 立场，充分开展务实合作，在经济、政治、社会、文化 和环境等诸多方面充分实现互利共赢。亚洲智慧，是全 亚洲人民的财富，是亚洲各国各地区各民族在多元中实 现和谐发展的思想基石。 探索具有各国特色的全民保健之路。 四、亚洲需要更具耐心地促进区域事务合作。 在应对气候变化方面，亚洲各国应积极寻求区域 合作，增进互信，共同应对和治理亚洲乃至全球的气候 变化，并增强亚洲各国在环境问题上的发言权。 在法律合作方面，法律多元性为法律智慧的丰富 提供了条件，法律智慧为国家间的法律统一提供了依 据、创造了条件。亚洲各国应通过建立多层次、多维度 的争端解决机制，依据国际法原则来解决区域内的各种 111 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS Shanghai Forum Consensus (2013) Seek Consensus from Diversity, Achieve Development in Harmony The age is undergoing extensive and profound changes. Asia should gain experience from history and reality and make full use of its unique wisdom and cultural strengths, to overcome all obstacles and difficulties lying ahead and to pursue coexistence and harmonious development despite our differences. Shanghai Forum 2013, with “Asia’s Wisdom: Seeking Harmonious Development in Diversity” as its theme, has gathered guest in extensive discussions on political, economic and cultural issues. The core of Asia’s Wisdom is inclusiveness in promoting unity and harmony in creating prosperity. Asian countries must respect each other and gather together the wisdom and converting it to the concepts, strategies, systems, policies and actions to promote economic and social development, so as to achieve sustainable economic and social development. 1. Asia needs to be more forward-looking in leading technological innovations. A key factor in facing the challenges lies in technological innovations. Asian countries should have insights into the world technological frontier, explore and lead the technology and application of 112 new energy and information, tailor the construction of their modern energy information systems to their regional resource endowments, and internalize advanced concepts, technologies and institutions in domestic or regional development, so as to nurture the emerging industries, to create new markets and new growth points, thus promoting sustainable economic and social development. 2. Asia needs to be more scientific and rational in promoting economic recovery and development. First, Asian countries should continue to cooperate with the U.S., Europe and other developed countries, boost trade under the framework of WTO international trade and investment rules of increased trade, and deepen the international division between Asia and other regions. Meanwhile, Asian countries should also improve their domestic market rules and legal systems to improve efficiency and enhance competitiveness of their exports. Second, in face of the challenges and opportunities in real economy, Asian countries should enhance broadranging cooperation, especially in the financial sector, WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG so as to improve financial performance serving the real economy, to alleviate risk of instability in East Asia financial system, and strengthen resilience to external market shocks. Third, Asian countries should enhance the level of economic integration, taking the industrial reconstruction, fostered by Asian Free Trade Area and regional financial and monetary cooperation, as the main starting point. 3. Asia needs to be more proactive and prudent in exploring institutional changes. First, during the ongoing process of rapid urbanization, Asian countries need to deal with more complex challenges brought by changes in urban management and social life through urban management innovations and innovations in social institutions, aiming at our living a high-quality urban life. Second, the fourth communication revolution, featuring new media, has brought new and serious challenges to Asian countries. Only by going forward with an open mind in coping with information technology advances and social changes can Asian countries gradually improve regulations in news media and management systems suitable for our modern information society. Third, through collaborative research and practical experience sharing, Asian countries need to explore their health care systems with national characteristics, and seek fair and efficient solutions to cope with the challenges brought to our health systems by an aging population and chronic diseases, which are challenges even to the entire picture of socio-economic development. 5. Asia needs to be more flexible in promoting regional peace and stability. Seeking development and promoting cooperation is the mainstream current in today’s Asia. To resolve the currently existing disputes, Asian countries should operate from the standpoint of Asia and learn from the whole world, seek peace and autonomy in a gradual process, cooperate to reach win-win solutions and integration of values, learn from history and face the future. Asian countries should respect and follow the common aspirations and well-being of the peoples of Asia, seek regional universal peace, development and prosperity and commit themselves to the resolutions all kinds of problems. It was generally acknowledged by the Shanghai Forum 2013 delegates that Asia is playing an increasingly important role in the world in facing up to crises sweeping in from the West. Asia's future will be as diverse and colorful as history and reality always have been. History proves that if we want to turn Asian dynamics to the real rise of Asia, Asian countries must be united in seeking consensus from diversity and achieving development in harmony. Asian countries should fully respect the differences between each-other, coordinate their positions and carry out pragmatic cooperation, thus achieving win-win situations in the economic, political, social, cultural and environmental aspects. Asia’s wisdom is the wealth of all the people in Asia. It is the ideological cornerstone of Asian countries to achieve harmonious development in diversity. 4. Asia needs to be more patient in promoting regional cooperation. As to global climate issues, Asian countries should actively seek regional cooperation, strengthen exchanges and enhance mutual trust, to jointly cope with climate changes in Asia and in the whole world, and to enhance the voice of Asian countries. As to legal cooperation issues, it is the diversity of the legal systems in Asia that determines the diversity of Asian legal wisdom, which provides both the bases and the conditions for legal unification in the region. Asian countries, on one hand, should establish a multi-level and multi-dimensional system for resolving disputes. On the other hand, they should also try to promote partial unification of their civil laws, exploring new paths to a harmonious blend of Asian legal wisdom. 113 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS 上海论坛共 识（ 2014） 掌握转型主动权，走亚洲特色创新之路 当前，世界范围内新一轮科技革命和产业变革正 协同性，将经济、社会、政治、文化、生态等方面的体 在孕育兴起，与亚洲发展崛起历史性地交汇，经济全球 制机制改革有机地结合起来，继续鼓励大胆试验、大胆 化和信息化深度交汇融合、交织影响，国际创新要素流 突破，不断把改革开放引向深入，坚持从易到难、从小 动空前活跃、重组不断加快，赋予了亚洲转型难得的历 到大、从外围到核心、从增量到存量不断推进的渐进式 史机遇，也对亚洲转型提出了严峻挑战。本届论坛紧紧 改革；通过产业升级和经济结构的战略性调整，通过改 围绕着“亚洲转型：寻找发展的新动力”主题，700余 革红利的不断释放，为亚洲转型挖掘潜力和创造动力。 名海内外嘉宾就经济、政治、文化等领域相关重大议题 不断探索开放新思路，寻求拓展共同利益，扩大 展开广泛而深刻的讨论。亚洲发展的新动力就是转型， 区域开放，提升开放水平， 努力形成互利互惠、共进 转型是持续健康发展的决定性力量，只有掌握转型的主 共赢的良好局面。采取更多实质性的开放措施，积极推 动权，才能率先实现崛起，走向繁荣。 进东北亚地区自贸区建设，进一步推进区域贸易便利 化；推动东盟经济共同体建设，建立更为广泛的东亚结 一、 科技创新是亚洲转型的不竭动力 为了塑造更加均衡协调的强劲增长态势，就必须 加快亚洲知识创造和技术创新的速度，不断积蓄新科技 革命的巨大能量，以科技创新的新成果支撑引领产业发 展，为加快转变经济发展方式、调整产业结构、提高社 会生产力开辟新的空间，以科技改革发展的新突破实现 经济增长的新跃升，激发社会进步的新活力，推动把发 展的立足点转到提高质量和效益上来。 二、 开放变革是亚洲转型的思想旗帜 以实践基础上的思想变革为先导，更新发展观 念，转换发展模式，更加注重改革的系统性、整体性、 114 构，推动地区经济整合和互联互通，加快东盟经济一体 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 化进程， 提高亚洲转型的竞争力。 持以人为本、民生为先，一同应对粮食安全、能源安 全、气候变化、自然灾害等难题， 实现共利双赢，保 三、 和平合作是亚洲转型的坚实保障 证所有公民都能从亚洲转型中获益。 亚洲各国应坚持以史为鉴、面向未来，与邻为 善、以邻为伴，增进政治互信， 抛弃偏见、搁置争 上海论坛 2014 与会代表普遍认为，面对错综复杂 议，相互补台，共同发展，通过对话解决争端，通过协 的国际发展格局，亚洲仍然是拉动全球经济增长的重要 商化解矛盾， 尊重各国各自选择的发展道路和在经济 引擎和稳定来源。亚洲要谋求更大发展，使亚洲变革和 社会发展实践中的探索，最大限度减少政治和历史因素 世界利益的融合达到前所未有的广度和深度，就必须摆 的束缚和羁绊，共同应对各种威胁和挑战，为亚洲转型 脱对传统路径的依赖，响应时代号召，把握正确方向， 营造和平发展的环境与氛围。 进行彻底的转型升级，走出一条富有亚洲特色的超越与 秉承同舟共济、互利共赢的理念，以民生福祉与 共享成果为目标，凝聚各方共识，深化友好合作，全面 创新之路，惠及亚洲各国，造福亚洲人民，向世界传递 持续发展的讯息，促进全球经济的再度复苏繁荣。 发展各国政府、政党、民间等各层次之间合作交流；寻 求共同空间，丰富合作内涵，推进经济、政治、科技、 教育、文化等各领域务实合作，相互联系，相互依存， 全面提升亚洲合作水平，探索互惠共进新模式，走好亚 洲转型升级之路。 四、绿色环保是亚洲转型的重要支撑 亚洲转型必须坚决摆脱高污染、高消耗、高排放 的路径依赖，加快生态优先、环保优先、节约优先的绿 色转型步伐，在发展中保护，在保护中发展，形成绿色 增长的战略导向与愿景，限制或减少碳排放，为亚洲经 济持续均衡发展固本强基； 采用最先进的技术、最科 学的方式，大力推动新能源和可再生能源的开发和研 究， 积极探索发展经济、节约资源、降低能耗、保护 环境相得益彰的途径和办法，促进生产、流通、消费过 程的减量化、再利用、资源化，最大程度地实现亚洲转 型的绿色升级。 亚洲转型必须追求包容性发展，尊重各国公民的 发展权利、发展责任、发展机会和发展利益，促进人的 全面发展，实现人与自然的和谐相处；亚洲各国必须坚 115 上海论坛共识 ｜ SHANGHAI FORUM CONSENSUS Shanghai Forum Consensus (2014) Initiate to Innovate and Transcend with Asian Characteristics A new round of technological revolution and industrial change worldwide is coinciding with Asia’s rise, a transformation of historic proportions. The combined influence of economic globalization, the spread of information technology, and the demands of international innovation give us a rare opportunity, and also raises serious challenges. This year, more than 700 professionals and practitioners from government, business, and academia gathered for an engaging discussion around the theme: “Asia Transforms: Identifying New Dynamics.” Transformation is a decisive driving force for sustainable, healthy development in Asia. Only by seizing the initiative can we take the lead in realizing prosperity. Technological innovation In order to coordinate robust, balanced growth, we must accelerate knowledge production and technological innovation. By consolidating the benefits of the new technological revolution and industrial development we can hasten the transformation of economic development models, adjust the structure of industry, and establish new social space for production 116 energies. Technological breakthroughs can bring new vitality to our economies, spur social advancement, and raise the quality and efficacy of development. Open to change Guided by changes in thinking based on practice, we can improve our conception and models for development. Emphasizing a more systematic, comprehensive, coordinated, approach requires a more organic combination of economic social, political cultural, and biological aspects. We will continue to encourage bold breakthroughs and ambitious experiments to continuously deepen reform and opening, going from the readily achievable to the more difficult, core issues. By improving production, making strategic adjustments to economic structure, and releasing the dividends of reform, we can uncover the true potential of Asia’s transformation. Good prospects for mutual gains and win-win opportunities will be formed through our continued efforts to explore new ways of thinking, common interests, and regional openness. Regional trade WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG facilitation will be promoted through more substantial measure to opening and active promotion of the Northeast Asia FTA; establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community will advance regional economic integration and more broadly increase the competitiveness of Asia’s transformation. Peaceful cooperation Asian states should persevere in their efforts to learn from the past, look towards the future, treat neighbors as friends and partners, increase political trust, cast off prejudices, and shelve disputes. They should share responsibility, pursue mutual development, resolve disputes through dialogue, and manage conflicts through negotiation. Respect for each country’s individual choices regarding development path and search socioeconomic development model is key, while the restraints of political and historical factors should be minimized. A peaceful environment for development and Asia’s transformation can further be built through common efforts to address various threats and challenges. All nations are in the same boat together, sharing the same concerns as well as the same goal of our peoples’ well-being. Focusing on commonalities, deepening cooperation, and developing cooperative exchanges between national governments, political parties, and civil society at all levels is imperative. The road to Asia’s transformation lies in seeking common space for development and substantive cooperation in economics, politics, technology, education, and cultural areas to name a few. We will continue to explore pathways for communication, coexistence, cooperation, and mutual gains. Environmental protection Asia’s transformation depends on addressing the high levels of pollution, resource depletion, and emissions that threaten to derail our development. We must prioritize the environment and conservation efforts, guided by the principle “protect while developing and develop while protecting.” This principle serves to consolidate and strengthen the foundation for Asia’s sustainable, balanced economic development. In order to do so, we will utilize the most advanced technologies for developing sustainable energy sources. We will pursue strategies for economic development, resource conservation, reducing consumption, and environmental protection concomitantly. In addition, we will streamline the production-transportation-consumption process and explore renewables and resource reclamation to the fullest extent. We must seek inclusive development, which means respecting the development rights of all countries’ people as well as the responsibilities, opportunities, and benefits that come with it. All Asian countries must persevere in taking people as the basis, and peoples’ well-being as the priority. Together, we should address food security, resource security, climate change, natural disasters and other issues. In this way, we may realize mutual gains and ensure that all people benefit from Asia’s transformation. The delegates of Shanghai Forum 2014 universally acknowledge that, faced with the layered complexities of international development, Asia remains the driving force of global economic growth and an important source of stability. The region should strengthen development, and at the same time, increase the breadth and depth of integration between the regional transformation and global benefits. Doing so requires breaking free from tradition, answering the call of the times, adhering to the correct path, and thoroughly promoting the transformation. By innovating and transcending the already rich experiences of a transformation with Asian characteristics, the region can bring prosperity not only to all Asian countries and people, but also promote sustainable development worldwide and once again reinvigorate the global economy. 117 成果与影响 ｜ ACHIEVEMENTS AND INFLUENCE 成果与影响 ACHIEVEMENTS AND INFLUENCE 上海论坛动态 Newsletter 研究报告 Research Report 中国观特刊 China Watch 论文集 Collection of Papers 亚洲道路 ——上海论坛嘉宾采访录 The Road of Asia – Interviews with Shanghai Forum Guests 观点集萃 Perspective Highlights 视频集 Video Clips 媒体报道 Media Coverage 118 WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 上海论坛动态 Newsletter 《上海论坛动态》是上海论坛组织委员会的公开 出版物，自2007年起每年出版。其目标是扩大上海论 坛在学术界、政界和企业界的影响力，其内容涉及新 闻发布、论坛专题、相关活动、重要事项和进程等， 并对论坛的阶段性工作进行总结，以促进上海论坛的 更好发展。 The Shanghai Forum Newsletter is an official publication of Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee. Launched in 2007, it aims to promote the Forum’s publicity and influence in academic, political and business circles. It includes news releases, feature reports, major projects, and consolidates the Forum’s progression in different phases so as to boost the Forum’s development. 119 成果与影响 ｜ ACHIEVEMENTS AND INFLUENCE 研究报告 Research Report 围绕上海论坛年会主题，针对相关研究领域 内的重大问题，各分论坛在会前组织并撰写研究报 告，并对亚洲经济、政治、社会、环境等领域的发 展提出有针对性的建议。 Under the annual theme of the Shanghai Forum, the Research Report is a collection of the subforums’ reports on critical topics of their research areas. The report puts forward practical suggestions for the development of Asia’s economy, politics, society or environment. 中国观特刊 China Watch 《中国观特刊》是上海论坛编辑的中国知名 智库咨政报告汇总。此刊物自2012年起每年发 布，旨在通过收集并翻译中国知名智库专家对中国 政治、经济等相关问题所发表的资政报告，向来自 世界各地的与会嘉宾呈现中国智库的声音，并为政 府决策助力。 120 The China Watch Special Issue is a collection of the Chinese think tanks’ views on China’s current economic and political issues. This annual publication aims to present the voice of China to the Shanghai Forum guests from different countries of the world, and assist the decision making and policy drafting of the government. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 论文集 Collection of Papers 自2005年首届上海论坛开始，上海论坛编辑并 出版嘉宾的参会论文集，为广大读者呈现各学科领 域的最新学术研究成果。 The Collection of Papers is an annual publication after each year’s Shanghai Forum. By publishing these articles, Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee wishes to present the latest academic results of the scholars to the general public. 121 成果与影响 ｜ ACHIEVEMENTS AND INFLUENCE 亚洲道路 ——上海论坛嘉宾采访录 The Road of Asia – Interviews with Shanghai Forum Guests 《亚洲道路——上海论坛嘉宾采访录》将当届 上海论坛的“智者对话”与“高端访谈”整理集结成 册，自2012年起每年出版一期。“智者对话”是复 旦大学的知名学者在论坛期间与VIP嘉宾就国际热点 问题所做的面对面对谈；“高端访谈”是由优秀学生 记者对论坛嘉宾所做的采访。本书旨在通过访谈的形 式，更深度、完整地呈现论坛嘉宾的思想与观点。 The Road of Asia – Interviews with Shanghai Forum Guests is the complete record of the scholars’ dialogues and the interviews of each year’s Shanghai Forum. The scholars’ dialogues are the face-to-face discussions between the VIP guests and the Fudan scholars, while the interviews are conducted by the student reporters of Fudan University. This book aims to provide more in-depth and complete ideas of the Forum guests. 观点集萃 Perspective Highlights 《观点集萃》将嘉宾发言和讨论中的观点在会 议期间即时发布，旨在以短频快的方式呈现论坛嘉 宾的观点精华，方便读者快速简便地了解论坛的交 流和讨论成果。 122 During the Shanghai Forum, the Perspective Highlights immediately summarizes and releases the guests’ perspectives in short paragraphs after their speeches and discussions to share the content of the Forum with the reader as quickly as possible. WWW.SHANGHAIFORUM.ORG 视频集 Video Clips 上海论坛组委会自2005年起对每届论坛的开、 闭幕式进行录像和视频剪辑。2013年起，数百位 与会嘉宾的会议发言及嘉宾访谈都被完整地记录下 来。组委会希望通过视频在网络平台上的广泛传 播，将嘉宾智慧和论坛成果与更多人进行分享，同 时进一步扩大论坛在国内外的影响力。 Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee has recorded the opening and closing ceremonies and edited them into video clips since the first Forum in 2005. From 2013, the speeches and interviews of the all the hundreds of the guests are also recorded. By offering the video clips on the Internet, we wish to share the wisdom of the guests with more and more people and, at the same time, enlarge the influence of the Forum in the world. 123 成果与影响 ｜ ACHIEVEMENTS AND INFLUENCE 媒体报道 Media Coverage 十年的厚积薄发，论坛影响力得到了 With a decade’s profound accumulation, the influence of Shanghai Forum has significantly improved. The total number of news reports has increased from 77 at the very beginning to 185 in 2014. With the participation of People’s Daily, Xinhua news agency, 21St Century Business Herald and other mainstream media, the attention by Reuters,Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal and other overseas media,the expansion of the new media channels, Shanghai Forumstarts to radiate its global influence power. 显著提高，新闻报道总数从一开始的77篇 增长到2014年的185篇。人民日报、新华 社、21世纪经济报道等主流媒体的加盟， 路透社、彭博社、华尔街日报等海外媒体 的关注，新媒体的渠道拓展，上海论坛开 始向全球辐射影响力。 今后，论坛组委会将力争进一步通 The organizing committee of the Forum will strive to further expand Shanghai Forum’s international influence in the future and meanwhile keep up with trends, promoting the Forum’s activities and interacting with readers by using the new media more effectively. 过外媒报道扩大上海论坛在国际上的影响 力，同时紧跟潮流，更有效地利用新媒体 形式推广论坛活动并与广大读者互动。 2014.5.24 文化·焦点 Culture 星期六 ｜ 责任编辑∶陈诗怀 美编∶黄松 A15 “雾霾和全球变暖其实是一件事” 杨玉良、秦大河、葛剑雄“两位院士一架大炮”昨在复旦论霾 化学家。 他提出了一些减排的案例。 杨玉良在德国读博士后时，了解 到德国 的 塑 料 和 纸 张 是 要 回 收 的 。 “全欧洲的废纸收集起来后， 集中到 北欧一个公司去处理。 但是只有20% 的被拿去做再生纸， 其余80%用于燃 烧、发电。 ” 酸奶盒子里也有“革命” 前景。 “现在做一个酸奶盒子， 消耗的塑料 只有1990年代的10%多一点。 所以是 不是可以设计一条渠道，石油被开采 出来，先把它做成材料使用，用完以 后，通过催化化学反应，再把它变回 燃料。 这样就可以构成一个链条，在 同样碳排放量的情况之下，既能满足 材料的使用需求，又能满足能源的使 用需求。 ”杨玉良说。 “传统的化工确实制造了大量的 污染， 但是如果化学家动点脑筋的 话，甚至于更进一步就像秦院士讲的 我们落实到技术上，那么我相信化学 全球变暖和雾霾到底是 昨 天 上 午 ，在 复 旦 大 学 史 地 所 教 授 侯 杨 方 （左 ）的 主 持 下 ，“两 位 院 士 一 架 大 炮 ”在 2014 上 海 论 坛 特 别 专 场 共 同 探 讨 家能够产生很多很多技术，来改进我 刘畅 图 自然现象还是人为造成？ 雾霾问题。 们的气候和环境。 ” 葛剑雄从历史角度出发，表示沙 文科生能不能为治理雾霾做贡 他举了一个例证：英国顶尖的学 尘暴不是现代人的专利， 而是古已 第一，燃煤燃料，第二，汽车尾气， 献呢？ 葛剑雄以自己为例子：“我现 全球变暖与雾霾 术研究机构丁铎尔中心发布了一个 有之。“遇到一次沙尘暴，有的人马 第三是各种自然界的其他排放， 在开的是一辆纯电动汽车， 电动汽 2014 年 5 月 30 日 星期五 新民网：www.xinmin.cn 24小时读者热线：962555 编辑邮箱：xmjjb@xmwb.com.cn 读者来信：dzlx@xmwb.com.cn 其实是一件事情 数据，全球地表平均温度过去一百年 上就说它是有史以来最严重的。 你 包 括 扬 尘 。 “烧 了 那 么 多 颗 粒 物 ， 车的推广不是技术问题， 而是社会 责任编辑∶吴咏红 视觉设计∶竹建英 温室气体的产生主要来自能源 当中上升了0.7-0.8摄氏度。 怎么知道有史以来最严重呢？ 我们 陆洁 技 怎么会没有雾霾？ 又没有清 管理问题。 ”葛剑雄说，为什么电动 家 的燃烧， 而中国的能源主要是煤炭。 秦大河接着说：“葛教授的观点 查了汉书，汉朝时今天的西安，就有 汽车在美国容易推广？ 因为“自己有 术 。 雾 霾 的 治 理 和 气 候 保 护嘴 ，减少 非常正确。 在几万年、几十万年的时 秦大河介绍， 中国目前每年消耗36 一次非常大的沙尘暴。 风一吹来，就 自己的车位”。 他认为，现在最好的 二氧化碳排放是一件事情， 不是 间维度上，地球和太阳自身是会发生 亿-37亿吨标准煤，“这一情况还在加 办法就是设立充电桩， 每个充电桩 像下雨一样的土，三天。 如果一定认 两件事情。 ” 剧，什么时候到顶点，有的说到2020 变化的，几万年一个周期。 但是在一 分配给几个人同时使用， 大家内部 为就是现代工业化引起的， 那么汉  革命豪情万丈高， 年，有的说到2050年，我们现在的排 个短的时间内，五十年、一百年，这个 朝呢？ ” 商量好使用时间。 美 革命道路阻且长 放量占据世界碳排放量的1/4左右。世 变化非常非常小。 ” 他对全球变暖也有另一种看法： 不当的分配和使用也是导致能 国 著 “举一个例子，根据实测资料和 界第一，原因何在？ 就是煤炭。 ” “我一直认为全球变暖是我们现在知 耗过大的原因。 葛剑雄说，有些国家 雾霾治理是一个长期的过程，     亚当珀森  美国著名经济学家之一现任美国 名 模型演算，1750-2012年，太阳变动引 在人均能耗方面，中国也已超过 把房子建好，就给你装好光伏电池或 道的一段时间的趋势，但是我认为不 秦大河说：“看到有些地方领 导 人 ， 经 著名智库华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所所长 美国国会预算局顾 济 世界平均水平。“我查了一下世行的 起地球热量的变化，我们用辐射强度 者热水器，很多是公用的。“比如我制 应该就此肯定未来的变化就只有这 他们的革命豪情万丈高， 他们说三 问兼任美国外交关系理事会委员三边委员会委员哥伦比亚大学 学 结 果 ，2012 年 全 球 人 均 消 耗 能 源 是 来计算， 每平方米是0.05瓦， 而这期 一种。 这很难解释，根据我们对历史 定一个格式， 通过地方的立法来保 年就要解决雾霾， 我实在是不能同 家 日本经济和商务研究中心研究员等职 间，二氧化碳、甲烷、氧化物等人为排 地理的了解， 以往的几千年中间，曾 证，这套房子比如说都同样装，单独 意。 ” 4.88吨，中国人均7吨左右。 我们已经 亚  年从哈佛大学毕业后 他一直从事发达经济体宏观经济 当 放物增多，经过这种温室气体造成的 超过全球的平均值了，上海已经超过 经出现多次气候由暖转寒，由寒转暖 装是什么待遇， 一起装什么待遇，像 “中国将煤炭作为主要能源，占到 早报记者 刘欣 韩晓蓉 今年3月25日，世界卫生组织发 布了一个关于环境污染、 大气污染 和病 人 死 亡 的 报 告 ， 报 告 里 提 到 ， 2012年与污染有关的病人死亡案例 有700万个。 中国科学院院士秦大河 看到这个数据以后很震惊， 打电话 给中国疾控中心的一位首席科学 家：“是不是帝国主义别有用心？ ”下 午，首席科学家查证后回复他：是真 的。 昨天上午，作为2014上海论坛特 别专场， 在复旦大学史地所教授侯 杨方主持下，中科院院士、复旦大学 校长杨玉良， 中科院院士、2013沃尔 沃环境奖获得者秦大河以及复旦大 学教授葛剑雄，构成了“两位院士一 架大炮”的阵容，一同探讨雾霾的问 题。 B2 封面人物 / 金融城   美国的平均值。 ” 另外，针对葛剑雄说的“雾霾一 下子在中国爆发”，秦大河提出，雾霾 并不是“一下子爆发”的。 他在1990年 代至本世纪初就已经发现，珠三角的 空气污染很厉害。“我2006年到台湾 去，路过香港，香港天文台和我联名 做一个新闻发布会， 庆祝某一件事 情。 香港的记者就问，为什么香港整 天雾气腾腾？ 很简单，北风一来，珠三 角的污染过来，南风一来，台湾的污 染也过来了。 ” 最近几年的雾霾特别严重，中 国 气 象 局 在 2013 年 、 2014 年 发 布 了 两 次 雾 霾 橙 色 警 报 ， PM2 . 5 达 到 了 350 ， 甚 至 400 以 上 。 秦 大 河 介 绍 ， 造成雾霾的原因主要有三大类： 68%甚至70%。 核能要想占主导地位， 需要二三十年。 我们的绿色能源太阳 能、风能好像世界第一，但是仍然解决 不了大问题， 我们的可再生能源植物 能源根本不够。说到底，短期之内摆脱 不了煤炭作为主要能源的结构。 ” 秦大河的解决方案是：“如果我 们能够改变能源结构，能够提高单位 能源的效率，能够制定更好的优惠政 策，国有、民营、科技人员、老百姓齐 动手，我想花一定的时间，我们的雾 霾治理一定会大有成效的。 ” 而且， 能源即使被清洁化了，雾 霾可以减少了，可是，二氧化碳还是 没有减少。 杨玉良开玩笑说，化学家似乎是制 造污染的，但是解决环境问题同样需要  政策 国家间关系金融危机以及中央银行等领域的研究他撰 辐射强度，减去雾霾的结果造成的变 这样一种变化。 ” 写的关于美元欧元以及国际金融和世界经济的分析文章在全球范 化数值是2.29瓦。 人类的活动大大影 而且他认为， 导致气候发生变化 围内被广泛关注对各国政府政策和市场亦有广泛影响 响了几十、近百年以来全球气候的变 的最主要因素， 其实还是自然本身， 化。 ” “人类的活动，包括到现在，活动比起 众所周知，丁铎尔中心在19世纪 自然的力量，毕竟要渺小。我们现在重 前期提出了温室效应。 秦大河则给出 视环境，这是对的，但整体上讲还是要 一组温室气体的数据：1750年人类工 更多关注自然本身。比如说雾霾，我们     身材敦实脸上似乎总带着一丝笑意作为美国著名智库头脑的珀森 业化以来， 大气中每一百万个分子 现在一讲到雾霾， 大家马上就想到开 博士无论是站在台上演讲还是坐在台下讨论不经意间总会做出挠头摸 里，二氧化碳的浓度是275，2013年是 车、工业，但是还不能解决为什么雾霾 鼻的小动作一副可爱的美国大叔模样 一下子在中国爆发的问题。 ” 393，增加了41%。“过去1400年里面， 非典型性经济学家的卖相掩盖不住睿智犀利的思想光芒 在阐述 现在是最热的时候。 ” 对此，秦大河表示了不一样的观 观点时他很少兜圈子提出的论据也总是比较接地气常常结合着彼得 全球变暖会带来什么影响？秦大 点：“ 全球变暖是真的。 过去一百年， 想必这也正是其在信息爆炸众声喧哗 森研究所同仁们最新的研究成果 人类排放的温室气体造成全球气候 间能够确立江湖地位的重要原因 河说，全球气温升高2摄氏度 ， 脆 弱 地区的脆弱人群将发生重大的变 变暖远远超过了自然界固有的变化 化， 老年人死得更快， 四大作物小 几率。 而且我们认为过去半个世纪以 米、稻米、玉米、黄豆，小米和玉米减 来， 全球升温大概50%以上的原因是 产1%~2%。 由人类活动造成的。 ” 这种是一个管理层面的问题。 ”珀 森 从人文角度，葛剑雄提出，要防 止在环境变迁、 气候变化这些研究 上面的政治化倾向，“作为 联 合 国 、 国际组织，作为国家的政府，作为社 会的主流当然应该讲政治， 当然会 有一些政治的标准， 但是不应该拿 本 这些政治标准去影响政治甚至科学 报 记 研究办法。 ” 者 “中国有一种把政治标签和民粹 胡 结合起来的习惯。 我们对今天转基因 晓 的讨论，对一些PX项目的判断，都有 芒 这样的问题存在，把国家利益、价值 摄 观念结合起来，比如说在讨论环境变 迁的时候，有的人讲有一些西方敌对 势力利用它来怎么样怎么样，我认为 这是非常危险的。 ” 美国智库 “头脑” 亚当·珀森谈把握 “大趋势” 亚洲转型如何寻找新动力？ 네이버 06.05 (목) 서울 24°C 주요뉴스 정치 사회 생활/문화 경제 큐브, 현아 합성사진 피해에 경찰청에 진정서 제출 세계 IT/과학 연예 포토 상식 in 뉴스 TV 借助厨房安全革命 美的欲做大厨电产业 인쇄 本报记者 鲁雁南 当前最紧要的是地方债问题 首家突破百亿的品牌， 美的厨电有 牌、价格、安全成为当前消费者选购 业一直把重心放在烟机研发上，少有 美的厨电研发中心主任栾春介 厨电市场的产业升级正在加速， 西方经济增速放缓， 长期处于“追赶”之势的亚洲经济在转型之际， 又该如何寻找新 全球十分齐全的厨电品类， 按照美 灶具时最关注的三大指标，分别占比 企业认为“灶具安全”才是值得投入 绍，安全性自始至终是产品技术的重 日前，美的六重防护的安全灶即将全     在回答“中国如何才能更好地实现资本市场增 动力？面对这样紧迫而又宏大的问题， 珀森首先指出， 尽管过去亚洲经济出现了一些增长 的厨电的战略部署， 将以“平台攻 重金开发的产品，这实际上是一种本 中之重。 美的“安全灶”从6大方面解 球上市的消息，再次引发业界关注。 为68%、66%、63%， “安全保障” 是当 长，打破发展僵局和瓶颈？” 的问题时，珀森则表示： 势”沿着智能厨房、智能家居 、 智 慧 末倒置。 美的厨电推出安全灶以及 “6 决安全隐患“煤气泄漏报警、意外熄 美的厨房电器事业部国内营销 下吸引消费者关注灶具的利益点。 奇迹，但在谈论所谓既有的成功增长模式时， “还是要稍微保留一点灵活性” 。因为，过去 “其实我还是从一个学习者的角度来看待中国的。” 家庭的路径循序推进，对“安 全 灶 ” 火自动关气、童锁保护、定时关火、防 公司总经理孙命阳表示，追溯消费者 对消费者“安全需求的付费意 存在着 能够取得很好的成绩，重保护”的理念，旨在用实际的行动 有很多外部条件所决定，这些路径也不是完全的一帆风顺， 但这并不妨碍他直言不讳： “改革的列表上面有许多 技术的投入不仅顺应了趋势和需 唤起行业、 消费者对厨房安全的关 最初对灶具的需求， 一是实用性，二 滑锅支架、防火墙”等，全面防护厨房 愿”相对更高的项目调研显示，消费 的待办事项，关键是哪些事项先做，哪些事项后做， 增加资本、 提升劳动生产效率等方面的问题。 注，推动整个厨电产业向更好、更安 是安全性，然而作为居家饮食的核心 求， 也使美的安全灶在单个品类上 安全。 者更愿意购买解决了安全隐患的灶 中国现在的政策制定者可选方案并不是很多。因为 另据了解，由美的安全灶独家冠 全发展。 烹饪工具，大多企业主要聚焦在“聚 的优势更突出，与美的微波炉产业、 具产品，漏气、扑锅、干烧、锅架滑 任何一项改革措施的结果都是双面性的，既有好的， 名的爆笑喜剧节目即将登场，届时将 “蒸汽洗”油烟机产业、行业 领 先 的 据了解，从去年开始，美的厨电 能”、“大火力”等的研发上，尚没有以 锅、熄火后燃气不关、儿童误操作等 又有不好的地方。” 日本上世纪错误判断大趋势 相信中国不会落入中等收入陷阱 为消费者呈现一场安全、喜乐的生活 就在为“安全灶”的上市而努力，一项 “安全”为主的灶具，美的安全灶的上 均是消费者和厨房“相处” 时的痛 器产业等比肩，通 10通道多 锥 吸 尘“政府已经开始 在珀森看来， 当前最紧要的一点 秀，不容错过。 “消费者 选 购 灶 具产 时的主要指 过一系列的厨房革命， 掘金千亿厨 市，或将掀起一场厨房 “安全革命”。 点，其中儿童安全锁、漏气报警高居     那么，作为宏观政策的制定者， 又该如何判 取得新的经济成长不是那么容易的  品  说到近来相当热门、 许多经济学 做了，但还需要加速解决”的，就是地方债问题。 有业内人士指出，作为厨电行业 标”调研就已显出端倪，调查显示，品 电市场，做大厨电产业。 孙命阳介绍，长期以来，厨电企 榜首。 断前方的大趋势呢？珀森说， 我们不得不问自己 事情，这是一个长期的事情” ，珀森 家就此发表大量论文的 “中等收入陷 “在这方面，要确保没有任何其他的替选方案， 也没 一系列的问题：在哪个点上短期的问题会变成长 期的问题？或者在哪一点上会出现金融危机或者 金融上的一些波动？经济发展的走势， 究竟是会 出现房地产的繁荣，还是会出现泡沫的破裂？ “我们需要有自己的一些判断，不可能简单 地使用数据或看看最近发生了什么， 来判断未来 会发生什么”，珀森以日本的“不断犯错”为例： “（上世纪） 年代的时候，他们相信‘我们的增 长速度太快了’ ，而没有认识到这种增长的方式 可能不是特别具有可持续性；到（上世纪） 年 代又出现了新的问题， 日本的银行表现有好几年 都不是特别好，而政策制定者却认为这就是新的 常态， ‘我们对此无能为力’ ，实际上那个时候真 的应该往回退一步看一下大的趋势。”     “我们正进入到一个技术放缓的时代。”  上海论坛上， 美国彼得森国际经济研究所 所长亚当·珀森博士从一个美国人的视角， 道出 一种有代表性的忧虑。技术的发展是一波一波 出现的，重大的技术进步会创造新的经济发展。 “问题在于当下很多处于科技前沿的富有国家， 并不是很清楚下一波技术浪潮到底在哪里。” 钱多，未必都是好事。他担心的一个现象 是，欧美公司手里持有巨量现金。这是为了预 防未来发生金融危机的可能， 同时说明很多企 业缺少好项目， 不愿意再投资， 新的投资周期并 没有出现。 “不像  年， 所有人都会说， 光纤 是一个非常好的投资领域， 可以投入大量的美 元， ”他感慨， “这种好日子已经离我们很遥远 了。” 当然世界的技术进步仍然在进行中， 比如 说  打印、基因科技进展等，都会改变生活。 但技术发展放缓的状况， 对新兴的亚洲及中国 与美国之间的关系，带来一系列的影响。 珀森用一个简单的模型来说明他的观 点。比如说，在这个世界上有两种经济体，一 种是处在科技创新前沿的国家，人均  可 能超过  万美元，比如美国；另一类国家可称 之为“追赶型国家” ，比如中国，有能力移向第 一集团，但现在还在不断调整、吸纳并应用各 阱”问题，珀森首先厘清概念：所谓 “中等收入陷阱” ，是指当人均  达到一定的水平， 经济增长回落或长 期停滞， “ 例如在日本出现的情况” 。 但对于“中国会不会落入‘中等收入 陷阱’” 的议题，珀森却明确表示： “在 彼得森研究所， 我们确实有些人在研 究这个问题， 但却得出了和日本完全 不同的结论。” “我的一名同事研究的是成长经 济学，他发现其实根本没有任何证据 指向这种所谓的 ‘中等收入陷阱’ ，当 然如果你到了城镇化已经完成，而不 得不推动技术发展时， 可能会发现要 说，在这一点上，需要研究的是台湾 的例子， 因为台湾的经济体也是建立 在政治和经济的紧密联系之上的，对 中国内地有参考价值， “当然， 中国内 地的经济体量比台湾要大得多，因此 腾挪的空间也会更多” 。 在珀森看来，还有一个坚信中 国不会落入“中等收入陷阱”的重 要理由是，中国仍然有大量的农村 地区有待发展，这些地方仍然有数 亿人口，中国的城镇化和工业化还 远远 没 有 结 束 ， “制造业会慢慢移 到中部、西部，还会继续带动经济 的发展。” 랭킹뉴스 高端制造正逐步搬到国外去。他提醒说， 那些 理性的投资方会喜欢这种情况， 但是这里面存 在利益冲突。当现金流出富裕国家， 进入中国、 印度等新兴经济体， 同时会带来知识、 专长、 技 术等的转移。这未必是富裕国家情愿的， 在对 外投资方面， 不一定会像过去那么友好。 他看好贸易和经济全球化的发展。理由 是， 过去的  年， 在没有牺牲其他人利益的情 况下，巴西、印度、东欧等国家的大量人口，从 原来的贫困阶层进入了中产阶层。 这些国家的 中产阶层， 希望全球化能够继续。他建议作为 投资者的每个人， 要好好想一想接下来几年世 界会变成什么样， 包括美国利率方面的变化。 珀森最后强调说： “在西欧也好，美国也 好，新兴市场也好，国内的结构改革成为一个 关键因素。我们所说的社会转型， 还不仅仅包 括技术。我觉得在中国这点尤其明显。” 本报记者 谈璎 더보기 칼럼 편집이력 2 아파트 관리비 내역 공개 어떻게 달라지나 3 "여성·청년 절반 '시간선택제 일자리' 뭔지 몰라" 4 정부, 주택정책 '다주택자 차별 철폐'로 방향 … 5 정부, 다주택자 임대소득 분리과세 추진…정… 有任何寻租的空间，以及其他任何的可以降低整个 改革措施质量的空间”，珀森进而建议，希望未来中 国政府能够对那些风险要素进行良好的归管， “如 果有一些政府担保，或者说是政府的背书的话，一 系列的综合性改革可能会更加顺利地在未来得到 推进。” 对于“区域经济一体化” 的概念，珀森则强调，这 的确是个发展方向，但如果要谈论发展模型和人类 福祉的话，需要考虑的一个更大的问题是“人口迁 移”或者说“劳动力市场全球化”， “一些在本国没有 得到充分就业的人， 跑到其他国家找工作，赚了钱以 后再把钱汇回国内， 如果积聚到一定水平，也会产生 很多问题， 在探讨未来成长动力时，这些问题也必须 综合考虑进去。” 宽松，减少开支等等。整个世界因为美国经济 的变化会产生非常大的溢出效应。 珀森博士提出，富有的国家会认识到结 构性的改革变得越来越重要。 “但我们知道人 们不可能总是理性的，即使是理性的人在一 起，也会出现一个集体性的非理性行为。在经 济放缓的情况下，要进行结构性的改革会变 得非常困难。我们也知道，在美国、在中国都 有既有的利益集团，要推动他们改革是非常 困难的一件事情。所以我们不知道未来能否 看到更多的结构性改革，尽管结构性改革对 于经济的发展变得越来越重要。” 至于技术进步放缓对全球汇率以及资本 流动的影响，他认为人们当然应该在高增长 的经济体中获得更多的资产。当新兴国家比 如说中国货币升值的压力越来越大，富裕国 家更多的现金会流向那些新兴经济体国家。 创新放缓，使得西方知名大企业的研发、 라이브러리 블로그 1 “비닐봉지 환불고객 3년간 단 1명” 0 6 포스트 6·4…탄력받는 부동산 · 건설 개발 프… 7 잔치 끝나자 … 거품 빠지는 '선거 테마주' 8 코스피, 기관 '팔자'에 2000선 밑으로 结构性改革对中国至关重要 种各样的技术。那些前沿国家以某个速度发 展着， 而另一些国家在追赶。他请听众想象一 카페 스크랩 技术放缓给世界经济带来系列影响 下，如果第一集团国家的发展速度下降了会 —追赶型国家的发展速度相对变 怎样？—— 快，两者间的差距在缩小。 当没有足够的动力让第一集团的国家进 一步发展，第一集团国家的创新和技术发展 就会放缓下来，而追赶型国家的发展速度则 会加快。“知识产权是一把双刃剑，一方面我 们需要保护知识产权，另外一方面我们又需 要创新，保护得太多，就没有创新。在这样一 个世界当中，我们需要一种额外的措施来实 现这种整合。” 当然，在整合的过程当中会有很多的起 伏。他承认， 美国现在对于其经济的控制力跟 之前完全不一样了，但美国仍是世界上首屈 一指的经济体。美国的经济已经成为世界经 济的一个减震器，比如说美国可以进行量化 TV편성표 메일 뉴스 검색 상하이포럼 2014 기사입력 2014-05-24 20:20 언론사 뉴스 me 코스피 1,995.48 13.08 -0.65% 코스닥 523.12 8.16 -1.54% 검색상위 SK하이닉 | 삼성SDI | 한진중공 정용화, 브라질로 출국 '상남자의 팔 근육' (상하이=연합뉴스) 한승호 특파원 = 중국 푸단(復旦)대학과 한국고등교육 걸스데이 소진, 컴백 앞두고 여름맞이 셀카 재단은 24일 상하이에서 '아시아 발전방식 전환-신(新) 성장 동력 찾기'를 주제로 '상하이포럼 2014'를 개막했다. 포럼은 26일까지 이어진다. 지드래곤, 포토월서 존재감 표정은 "멍" 2014.5.24 <<국제뉴스부 기사 참조>> hsh@yna.co.kr 이문세, 갑상선암 재수술 불구 건강한 미소 ▶연합뉴스앱 ▶궁금한배틀Y ▶화보 ▶포토무비 고아라, '너포위' 촬영장서 P4와 찰칵 '화기애애' 장나라 "다리 길게 나온 기념" 찰칵 '최강 동안미모' <저작권자(c) 연합뉴스, 무단 전재-재배포 금지> 증권 연합뉴스 관련뉴스 펀드 환율 '트로트의연인' 정은지 귀엽고 깜찍하죠? '애교퀸' 등극 언론사 페이지로 이동합니다. 칠곡계모, 숨진 의붓딸 언니도 세탁기에 넣어 돌려 경찰, 세월호 집회서 연행된 여성들 '속옷 탈의' 물의 외교부 "유병언 망명 의사 타진 국가 모른다" "구글, 내달 말 3D 태블릿 선보인다" "왕게임은 잔학행위"…美 홈스테이 교포 피소 한우물 판 전문직공무원 수당 대폭 올린다 "붕괴 北아파트에 보위부·경찰 간부 거주" 정부, 다주택자 임대소득 분리과세 추진 현아 합성사진 피해에 경찰청에 진정서.. 북마크 보내기 대표팀 GK 3인방, K리그 기록은? 이영표는 왜 마이크를 잡았을까 마라도나가 메시의 월드컵 망쳤다 124 上海论坛2016期待您的加盟！有意承办 子论坛的嘉宾，欢迎您与我们联系。 2016 Shanghai Forum 2016 is open for session organizers worldwide! You are welcome contact with us for more information. Email: shanghaiforum@fudan.edu.cn 亚洲的责任：创新合作模式 Exploring New Approaches to Cooperation 2015 2014 亚洲智慧：在多元中寻求和谐发展 Asia’s Wisdom: Seeking Harmonious Development in Diversity 亚洲转型：寻找新动力 Asia Transforms: Identifying New Dynamics 2013 未来十年的战略 2012 Strategies for 2011-2020 市场、政府和全球治理结构 Market, Government and Global Governance 2011 2010 反思 • 复苏 • 重构 Reflect, Recover, and Restructure 危机 • 合作 • 发展 Crisis, Cooperation, and Development 2009 2008 能源 • 货币 • 共同市场 Energy, Currency, and Common Market 转型 • 增长 • 福祉 Transition, Growth, and Welfare 2007 2005 金融 • 能源 • 信息 Finance, Global Energy, and Information Technology 复旦大学上海论坛组织委员会 地址：中国上海市邯郸路 220 号 邮编：200433 电话：86-21-65642354 55664665 传真：86-21-55670203 电子邮箱：shanghaiforum@fudan.edu.cn 网址：www.shanghaiforum.org Shanghai Forum Organizing Committee, Fudan University 220 Handan Road, Shanghai 200433, P.R.China Tel: 86-21-65642354 55664665 Fax: 86-21-55670203 E-mail: shanghaiforum@fudan.edu.cn Website: www.shanghaiforum.org